Sunday afternoon marks the 6-3 New England Patriots’ first divisional rematch of the 2009 season when they host the 4-5 New York Jets at Gillette Stadium.  It is a pivotal game for both teams, as the Jets won the Week 2 matchup 16-9 at the Meadowlands, their first home victory against the Patriots since 2000.  If the Patriots lose this week to the Jets and next week to the New Orleans Saints, and the Jets defeat the Carolina Panthers next week, the Jets will reclaim the AFC East division lead they held to start the season until their Week 6 overtime loss to the Buffalo Bills.

The moods are flipped compared to when these two teams played for the first time this season.  The Jets are coming off a heartrending  24-22 home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in which Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 123 yards and a TD and took a knee at the Jets 1 yard line inside of 2:00 left in the game to prevent the Jets from getting a chance to score at the end of the game.  The Patriots lost on Sunday Night Football to the Indianapolis Colts 35-34 in a game that featured both Patriots QB Tom Brady and Colts QB Peyton Manning going over 300 yards passing and Patriots WR Randy Moss and Colts WR Reggie Wayne going over 100 yards receiving, as well as a controversial coaching decision by Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.  Entering Week 2, the Jets were flying high and the Patriots won a game they probably shouldn’t have won.  Entering Week 10, Jets head coach Rex Ryan is defending his right to cry as the Jets have lost five of their last six (the one win coming against an Oakland Raiders team that features Tom Cable as head coach and JaMarcus Russell as starting quarterback) while Belichick is simply defending.

JETS PASS OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE

In QB Mark Sanchez’ first three starts of the season, he threw 4 TDs and 2 INTs as the Jets started 3-0.  Then Sanchez played the Saints and started playing like a rookie.  During the Jets’ 1-5 slide, Sanchez has 5 TDs and 10 INTs, half of them coming in the overtime loss to the Bills.  Sanchez also hasn’t completed at least 60% of his passes since he went 14 of 22 against the Patriots in Week 2.  Keep in mind that this is with the services of former Cleveland Browns WR Braylon Edwards the last five games.  Edwards hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since joining New York (16 catches, 16.9 yards a catch, 2 TDs) but he is undoubtedly a bigger threat than WR Chansi Stuckey was, and in Edwards’ only game vs. the Patriots, he caught 6 passes for 110 yards in 2007.  At 6-3, 215, Edwards has great size but the Patriots are probably more concerned with WR Jerricho Cotchery and TE Dustin Keller.  Despite missing two games, Cotchery leads the Jets in receiving and has continued to be great after the catch.  He is perhaps more dangerous due to the presence of Edwards, and he has gained 87 receiving yards in each of the last two times he has faced the Patriots.  The injury to RB Leon Washington forces the Jets to use RB Thomas Jones as the 3rd down back.  WR David Clowney has deep speed as the third WR, but he has never produced in a game where Cotchery is healthy and CB Darius Butler has the speed to stay with him.  There is pressure on Patriots CBs Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite to play consistently better as the game goes on, but then again, some of that pressure is alleviated with the fact that they are defending Sanchez, not Peyton Manning.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

JETS RUN OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE

RB Thomas Jones is having a great season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and scoring 8 TDs, including one in the 4th quarter last week against the Jaguars that gave the Jets a 22-21 lead they would later lose at the end.  Because of Washington’s injury (a broken leg at Oakland), 6-0, 227 pound rookie RB Shonn Greene was inserted into the lineup and showed his promise against the Raiders (144 yards on 19 carries, 2 TDs) but has been quiet in his other five appearances (22 carries, 74 yards, one critical lost fumble vs. Miami in Week 8).  Last week vs. the Jaguars was the first time this season that the Jets passed more than they ran, but even then it was almost equal (31 passes, 29 runs).  The Patriots have ILB Jerod Mayo back for the rematch but the Patriots played without DE Ty Warren last week and has already been missing DE Jarvis Green.  Jones shouldn’t break one in this game, but he’ll probably carry the ball at least 20 times against New England as the Jets avoid putting their rookie QB at risk.  ADVANTAGE: Jets.

JETS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. PATRIOTS PASS RUSH

The Patriots have been inconsistent at getting to the QB this season, while the Jets offensive line has protected Sanchez well for the most part.  Sanchez has only attempted 30 passes or more twice this season, which limits sack opportunities.  While LG Alan Faneca has had trouble with players such as Dolphins DE Randy Starks, the Patriots do not have a player that can take advantage of any aspect of the Jets’ pass protection.  OLB Tully Banta-Cain left the game at Indianapolis early with a rib injury, so it remains to be seen how effective he will be in this one.  ADVANTAGE: Jets.

JETS PASS RUSH vs. PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE

The Jets pass rush, without OLB Calvin Pace, harrassed Brady all game long in Week 2.  They didn’t sack Brady, but they hit him and hurried him a lot, especially up the middle in Brady’s face.  Now Pace is back, and he is the Jets’ best pass rusher.  He had three sacks against the Raiders and one last week, giving him a team high four on the season.  Pace will be going up against rookie LT Sebastian Vollmer, who played a big part in helping the Patriots become the first team this season to keep Colts DE Dwight Freeney from recording a sack in a game.  The Patriots’ offensive line has played better in general as the season has gone on, but they have to prove they can pick up the blitz against the Jets.  The Jets may be missing SS Jim Leonhard (1.5 sacks) in this game; Ryan likes to use him as a pass rusher and on one particular blitz vs. New England he rushed Brady into a deep pass to Randy Moss that was intercepted.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Jets.

JETS RUN DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

The Patriots will get RB Sammy Morris back for this game from injury, and Jets NT Kris Jenkins is out for the season with a knee injury.  But if there is one thing the Patriots have proven, it is that they aren’t comfortable with their RBs.  Laurence Maroney ideally would be the main back, but the combination of his goal line fumble and Morris’ return clouds his role going into this game.   Kevin Faulk led the team in rushing last week, but again, he may lose carries to Morris.  The Jets miss Jenkins in the middle, but haven’t been completely terrible against the run with NT Sione Pouha starting.  Because of Leonhard’s broken thumb, he may be a tackling liability if he plays; SS Eric Smith is a decent backup.  The Patriots will undoubtedly carry the ball more than 20 times in this game, but they still might not be very effective. ADVANTAGE: Jets.

JETS PASS DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

Since Randy Moss and Wes Welker joined the Patriots in 2007, Brady has completed less than 50% of his passes only twice, but both were against Rex Ryan’s defense: 2007 at Baltimore and 2009 at New York.  In the first meeting, CB Darrelle Revis did a great job covering Moss, holding him to 24 yards and intercepting a deep pass intended for him in the first half.  But instead of WR Joey Galloway, Brady gets Welker starting at WR this time; Welker missed the first meeting with a knee injury.  WR Julian Edelman will also get in a full week of practice as he is back from a broken forearm; Edelman had the best game of his short career against New York earlier this season (8 receptions, 98 yards). In fact, Edelman’s 98 yards are the most the Jets have given up to a receiver all season, and by far the most to a WR.  New York will let RBs and TEs catch passes, but they have absolutely shut down WRs all season. The Jets gave up some big plays to Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis last week, so Brady should look for TE Ben Watson when the plays are there.  Jets CB Lito Sheppard is healthy, but he has lost his starting job to CB Dwight Lowery and CB Donald Strickland is usually the nickel back.  Brady threw 47 passes against the Jets, but only two of them were completed to RBs.  The Jets defense is #1 in the league in passing yards per attempt and #3 in passing yards, and the Patriots will need to continue to hit the big play if they want a shot at beating the Jets.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

JETS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS

Leonhard’s absence would effect the Jets’ special teams, as he is usually the Jets’ punt returner.  Last season Washington was the punt returner as well as a Pro Bowl caliber kickoff returner, but he is already out for the season so if Leonhard can’t go then the Jets would use #1 CB Darrelle Revis to return Chris Hanson’s punts.  Hanson had been struggling most of the season getting distance on his kicks, but he was great indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, averaging 44 yards on his four kicks and having none of them returned.  WR Brad Smith and CB Justin Miller will return kickoffs.  Last time K Jay Feely was in New England, he kicked the game winning field goal in overtime.  The Jets did a decent job against Jaguars KR Brian Witherspoon last week (24.7 yards on five kickoff returns, long of 27) but they were absolutely destroyed by Dolphins KR Ted Ginn in the third quarter of their Week 8 game, giving up two 100+ yard kickoff returns for TDs in a game decided by five points and a game in which the Dolphins were held to 104 yards of total offense.  It isn’t the only game in which the Jets lost due to horrible special teams play, as the loss to the Bills was marked by a key missed FG by Feely and another botched FG attempt that led to P Steve Weatherford throwing an INT.  WR Matt Slater will return kickoffs for New England and Welker will return punts.  Welker’s 117 yards on 5 punt returns at Indianapolis was a career high, and his 69 yard return at the end of the third quarter set up the Patriots’ only second half TD. The Patriots would prefer to see as little of K Stephen Gostkowski inside the 20 yard line as possible.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Patriots.

JETS COACHING vs. PATRIOTS COACHING

Talk about coaches under pressure.  Belichick is under major heat for his coaching decision.  Ryan is under major heat for his team’s trash-talk filled, bravado packed 3-0 start combined with a most humbling 1-5 downward spiral.  Ryan’s difficult past seven weeks: calling Sanchez the “Sanchize”, allowing Sanchez to pass his way to five INTs against the Bills, losing key players on offense, defense, and special teams (Washington and Jenkins), losing to the Dolphins as a result of allowing three defensive/special teams TDs, admitting regret to trash-talking Dolphins ILB Channing Crowder, having a falling out with defensive line coach Kerry Locklin, giving Maurice Jones-Drew a freebie TD inside of 2:00 only for Jones-Drew to take a knee.  It’s all enough to make a grown man cry.  Ryan can take solace in the fact that as long as he tells Sanchez to put it in the hands of his running backs and keep it out of the reach of defensive Patriots, his defense is built to frustrate Tom Brady.  Despite their losing record, the Jets have yet to be down by more than eight points entering the 4th quarter all season.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Jets.

INTANGIBLES

Emotionally, this game features a team with what is widely thought to be an angry and humiliated defense (New England) and a team that seems depressed (New York).  Both teams will have plenty of reasonable doubt going around their locker rooms if they lose, while a win just means pressure to do it again the following week.  Once again, the pressure is really on New England.  The last time the Patriots lost two games in a row was in November 2006 when they followed up a 27-20 loss at home to the undefeated Colts (Brady: 0 TDs, 4 INTs) with a 17-14 loss at home to the Jets (you remember the Belichick/Eric Mangini “handshake” that followed).  The weather is supposed to be cloudy but not to rainy, so Brady won’t have to reminisce about the horrible weather from that 2006 game.  Sure, the Jets have been a talkative team all season, but they have played hard for their head coach and they back him up.  FS Kerry Rhodes especially has followed Rex Ryan’s lead (for better or for worse).  After Sunday Night can you say the same about the Patriots right now?  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Jets.

BOTTOM LINE

The urgency level is high for these two teams, but it is definitely higher for the New York Jets.  The Jets have won two of the last three in New England, and they have a chance to sweep the season series for the first time since 2000 as well as get back to .500.  Even with Welker, Morris, and Edelman in the lineup (not to mention Randy Moss), it remains to be seen if the Patriots can be the first team this season to consistently move the ball against the Jets defense.  The Jets will allow a big play on the field, but missing those opportunities (as well as not forcing turnovers or making plays on special teams) will result in a loss.  The Jets defense will ensure this game is a dogfight, and I think the Jets do just enough to finally win a close game.  PREDICTION: Jets.

Other Week 11 games I’m predicting (7-8 last week, +34 for 2009):

Panthers over Dolphins.

Cowboys over Redskins.

Lions over Browns.

Packers over 49ers.

Steelers over Chiefs.

Giants over Falcons.

Saints over Buccaneers.

Bills over Jaguars.

Ravens over Colts.

Vikings over Seahawks.

Rams over Cardinals.

Raiders over Bengals.

Broncos over Chargers.

Eagles over Bears.

Texans over Titans.

-1SKILLZ