Finally, the heat is over!  Super Bowl XLVI is this Sunday, February 5, 2012 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.  The NFC champion New York Giants (12-7, #4 seed) will face the New England Patriots, champions of the AFC (15-3, #1 seed), in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII and (more importantly) Week 9 of the 2011 NFL season.  No comment on the Giants/Patriots preseason finale, except that the Giants are probably who the Patriots think they are.  Will they once again let them off the hook?

The Giants won the NFC championship on the home turf of the San Francisco 49ers, a 20-17 victory aided by two fumble recoveries on special teams.  The Patriots won the AFC championship at Gillette Stadium, surviving would-be game-winning or tying-plays from the Baltimore Ravens in the final minute of the game.  The Patriots lost both Super Bowl XLII  (17-14) and the 2011 midseason matchup (24-20) on the Giants’ final drives of the games.  It appears that if the Patriots want to win this game, they might want to be up more points when the Giants have the ball with under two minutes left.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE

Before this season, QB Eli Manning was forced into calling himself an elite QB.  Yes, forced.  The truth is, it was a dumb question at the time, and it’s a dumb question now.  Manning wasn’t just the #1 pick of the 2004 NFL Draft … he was such a powerful #1 pick that he told the San Diego Chargers he would not play for them.  He’s supposed to be good.  He cut down on his INTs this season and has only turned the ball over once this postseason, but he is still not immune to bouts of inaccuracy, inefficiency, or compound disaster.  Manning still had three-multi INT games this season, and he threw a terrible INT in the end zone in New England this season.  Let’s also debunk the myth that more Eli means Giants success.  Manning threw for over 400 yards three times this season; two of those games were brutal losses (Seahawks, Saints), and the third should have been (Cowboys Part I).  That all said, Manning could very well pick apart the Patriots’ secondary, a pass defense that would have been the worst in NFL history if not for this season’s Green Bay Packers (who, in the postseason, forgot how to defend the jump ball).  The Packers secondary had no answer for WR Hakeem Nicks.  The Patriots will cede gobs of yardage to Nicks, WR Victor Cruz, WR Mario Manningham, and TE Jake Ballard.  It is in the Patriots’ best interest to not give Manning an opportunity to win the game late with these weapons.  But despite the fireworks, the Giants are still an inconsistent bunch.  Rarely is their passing game sustainable; Nicks dominated the Packers in the first half, then cooled off.  Cruz dominated the 49ers for 10 catches and 142 yards – all in the first half.  Even against the Patriots the first time around, Manning failed to lead the Giants to any first half points.  Part of that was Nicks’ absence in that game, but the other part is that Manning is a rhythm passer.  And when he’s off, he’s like Napoleon Dynamite at a high school 80s party (see: Jets, Redskins, Vince Young Eagles).  The Patriots do not have any defensive backs who can go man against the Giants wide receivers all game (Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Sterling Moore, Julian Edelman all would get toasted in man).  Expect the Patriots to just hope they capitalize on multiple errant passes.  And that SS Patrick Chung knocks the ball off of all Giants helmets.  ADVANTAGE: Giants.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE

Now here is the key to a positive Giants performance.  RB Ahmad Bradshaw missed the first matchup at New England, but that may not have been a bad thing, as RB Brandon Jacobs was motivated to run hard all game long, producing his first good game of the season (72 yards and a TD on 18 carries).  Jacobs seldom plays well when Bradshaw is healthy enough to receive a full game of work, and the Patriots will also be helped by the fact that DT Albert Haynesworth no longer plays for them.  Haynesworth’s last play as a member of the New England Patriots was during Jacobs’ TD run; the Patriots have outscored their opponents in every game since, including the Giants game (Giants took a 10-0 lead after Jacobs’ TD).  DT Vince Wilfork has been great this season, rarely leaving the field (unheard of for a man of his position).  But he’s been assisted significantly by the play of fellow DT Kyle Love, who has played rough and tumble in the trenches.  The Patriots will also have ILB Brandon Spikes and SS Patrick Chung, who were both injured during the first Giants game, and OLBs Jerod Mayo and Rob Ninkovich playing outstanding run defense as of late.  The Patriots did a great job of defending Ravens RB Ray Rice in the AFC championship, and the Giants will be tempted to go after New England’s secondary enough times to cause hesitation in featuring Bradshaw and Jacobs.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

GIANTS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. PATRIOTS PASS RUSH

Good thing the Giants had two weeks off, because their offensive line allowed a pocket beating at San Francisco.  This is a “what-if” matchup on both sides of the ball for the Patriots; their best pass rusher, DE Andre Carter, is on injured reserve and would have given the Patriots a great advantage against Giants LT David Diehl.  Diehl started the season at LG, but swung back out to LT to account for William Beatty’s injury.  The Patriots have a good pass-rusher in DE Mark Anderson, but the Patriots’ pass rush as a whole has been improved since Carter’s injury.  The Patriots feature brute strength inside from Wilfork, Love, and DT Gerard Warren, and that will put some pressure on the interior of the Giants’ offensive line (LG Kevin Boothe, C David Baas, RG Chris Snee).  SLB Rob Ninkovich has also stepped up his play as a passing-down edge rusher, and he’ll see plenty of RT Kareem McKenzie.  The Patriots have to be careful though.  They won’t want to blitz Manning too much (see: Super Bowl XLII TD to Burress), and the Patriots failed to sack Manning in 39 passing attempts back in October.  ADVANTAGE: Giants.

GIANTS PASS RUSH vs. PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE

Dirty little secret?  The Patriots already figured out the Giants pass rush back in October.  Those ghosts in the pocket that Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul said Patriots QB Tom Brady was seeing in October were real.  And then Brady stopped being spooked and proceeded to filet the Giants.  Before Eli Manning got the ball back to win the game, Brady furiously led the Patriots to four late scoring drives in about a quarter and a half’s time.  The Patriots have also been battle tested in the trenches, as they have faced a strong pass rusher or two in several games this season down the stretch – sometimes without one or more starters.  The results looked bad at times (slow starts against Chiefs, Eagles, at Denver, Dolphins, Bills), but no matter who was protecting the QB, the Patriots offensive line got their act together in enough time to let the offense proceed to slaughter the opposition.  So if Giants DEs Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck are going to scare Brady and his offensive line, they better do it early and perhaps should wait until late.  Unlike most of this regular season, the Patriots have a healthy offensive line ready to go for the last game of the season: LT Matt Light, LG Logan Mankins, C Dan Connolly, RG Brian Waters, RT Sebastian Vollmer.  Vollmer is the wild card, and even if his body doesn’t hold up like it should be ready to after essentially missing all of the last three months, rookie OT Nate Solder is his swing.  Every team tries to rattle Brady with defensive line pressure.  The Giants are among the best in the NFL to be able to do that.  But that just means the Patriots offensive line needs to rise to the pressure of not letting the Giants defensive line take this game over… ADVANTAGE: Draw/Giants.

GIANTS RUN DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

… And this is a good way to help the Patriots offensive line.  This game reminds me a lot of the Patriots trip to Oakland in October.  I know you don’t remember that game and you probably ignored the link.  Let me spell it out for you:  The Oakland Raiders love to rush the passer, but were the worst run defense in the league.  Coming off of a 4-INT performance in Buffalo, Tom Brady was missing TE Aaron Hernandez to injury and TE Rob Gronkowski was limited by illness and probably shouldn’t have played (he only had a 15 yard catch).  So what did the Patriots do?  They ran the ball as many times as they passed it – 30 rushing attempts, leading to big games by RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (75 yards and a TD on 16 carries) and rookie RB Stevan Ridley (career-high 97 yards on 10 carries and a 33-yard TD)!  RB Danny Woodhead sprained his ankle in the game, or he may have been a bigger factor.  As evidenced by the Patriots’ first TD drive against the Ravens, they’re not afraid to give Green-Ellis the ball against even the toughest defenses, and the Giants’ interior defense can’t hold a candle to the Ravens’.  The Patriots are afraid to give Ridley the ball, because Ridley’s fumbling concerns are reminiscent of Laurence Maroney, but the rookie will be active because the Patriots need him in this game.  And I suspect that Woodhead, despite his kickoff return fumble in the AFC championship game, will be active over veterans like RB Kevin Faulk and FB Lousaka Polite.  Don’t count out TE Aaron Hernandez in the hurry-up offense, or even QB Tom Brady trying to sneak a few in 2nd-and-short-yardage situations.  The Giants have outstanding size and depth along their defensive line, highlighted by Pierre-Paul, Tuck, and DTs Linval Joseph and Chris Canty.  But SLB Mathius Kiwanuka and WLB Michael Boley are better in the pass defense than defending the run, and MLB Chase Blackburn is not who the Giants want on the field in case the Patriots start hurrying up their offense.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

GIANTS PASS DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

Well, I showed my hand a bit.  Don’t think the Patriots’ offense will be helpless without Gronkowski.  They’re significantly more dangerous with Gronkowski  healthy instead of a version of Super Bowl 39 Terrell Owens.  Brady hasn’t played a game without Randy Moss or Rob Gronkowski since the 2006 AFC Championship (at Indianapolis!) … his WRs were Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, and Troy Brown, and his TEs were Daniel Graham and Ben Watson.  Look, Gronkowski will play, he’ll just be limited.  You may see OT Nate Solder in as a sixth, eligble lineman.  You may see practice squad TE Carson Butler activated for depth.  You may see more of WR Chad Ochocinco since … the last time the Patriots played the Giants.  But WRs Wes Welker and Deion Branch will be relied upon in this game, along with Aaron Hernandez.  Gronkowski played a big role in the Patriots’ first game against the Giants, but the Patriots probably would prefer to keep their passing well below the 48 attempts Brady had in Super Bowl XLII and the 49 attempts Brady had in November against New York.  When the Patriots have lost this season (at Buffalo, at Pittsburgh, Giants), many have put the loss on the defense for not being able to hold a lead.  But Brady threw 4 INTs at Buffalo after taking a big first half lead, waited too long to get in rhythm at Pittsburgh, and added three turnovers to his slow start against the Giants).  If the Patriots would have allowed game-altering scores to the Ravens and lost the AFC championship, the loss would have been Brady’s because he was inaccurate and inefficient and mistake-prone for parts of that game.  The Giants want to force Brady into mistakes, but the reality is that Brady has favorable matchups.  As good as CB Corey Webster has been, he cannot stay with WR Wes Welker in the slot.  WR Deion Branch has fast but inconsistent CB Aaron Ross on him; Brady won’t force him the ball, but if he’s open, he’s open.  I feel reluctant to put this out there, but WR Chad Ochocinco got himself open against the Giants a few times in the first matchup.  If he’s active, he could be a factor.  It might be his last game as a Patriot, so what better time for him to show up than now?  The Giants have talent in their secondary (Webster, Ross, rookie CB Prince Amukamara, FS Antrel Rolle, SS Kenny Phillips, and nickel DB Deon Grant), but they’re more than capable of a breakdown or two, and let’s just say these guys don’t tackle like the 49ers do.  For a team that relies on yards after the catch, that is something to watch.  The Patriots absolutely need Brady to be accurate, efficient, and turnover-free.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Patriots.

GIANTS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS

Fumbles, fumbles, fumbles.  I remember five.  Fumble #1 was Giants PR Aaron Ross muffing a kick in New England.  That was a potential turning point.  Fumble #2 was Patriots PR Julian Edelman giving it right back trying to do too much on a return.  Yes, in the first matchup between these two teams, Giants P Steve Weatherford and Patriots P Zoltan Mesko saw their respective coverage teams recover fumbles.  Fumble #3 happened in the AFC Championship game, where Danny Woodhead fumbled a kickoff return that led to a Ravens FG.  But the most significant fumbles, #s 4 and 5, were in the NFC Championship game.  Down 14-10 in the 4th quarter, Weatherford punted to 49ers PR Kyle Williams, who was only returning punts because usual 49ers PR Ted Ginn was injured.  Giants WR/KR Devin Thomas jumped on the punt, which was touched ever so slightly by Kyle Williams’ knee; Fumble #4, which led to a TD catch by Mario Manningham.  Then in overtime, Weatherford punted again, and rookie LB Jacquian Williams stripped Kyle Williams.  Devin Thomas recovered Fumble #5, and it led to the FG that gave the Giants the NFC Championship.  To say that the return men (Woodhead and Edelman for the Patriots, Thomas and Ross for the Giants) need to keep a grip on the ball goes without saying.  Weatherford and Mesko probably want their punts fielded.  Giants K Lawrence Tynes is plenty clutch, but Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski has a stronger leg (which admittedly shows up more on kickoffs than field goal attempts, as Gostkowski has only attempted five 50+ yard FGs in his six-year career).  While Weatherford has been a huge upgrade this season compared to 2010 rookie P Matt Dodge, Mesko has been nearly flawless as a special teams weapon for the rare occasions he is called upon.  The Patriots also have a standout special teams performer in WR Matthew Slater.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Patriots.

GIANTS COACHING vs. PATRIOTS COACHING

Giants head coach Tom Coughlin and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick were on the same staff from 1988-1990 with the New York Giants, winning Super Bowl XXV together.  They both run a tight ship, though in different ways.  Coughlin is remarkably disciplined (see: Coughlin time), while Belichick has helped establish “The Patriot Way” over the last 12 years in New England.  Coughlin was ran out of Jacksonville for his heavy-handed ways, and Belichick was ran out of Cleveland for his minimalist approach to the media.  Winning changes a lot though, including the culture of the teams they lead.  Belichick has to be feeling better about this Super Bowl, simply for the fact that “18-0″ and “Spygate” are things of 2007.  If anything, Coughlin feels about the same.  This Giants team overcame a four-game losing streak to win their last six games to get to this point, and the Giants are playing well under offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride (criticized for just about everything this past preseason) and defensive coordinator Perry Fewell (who the Patriots know from his time on the Buffalo Bills’ staff from 2006-2009).  The Patriots offensive staff was bolstered by the addition of Josh McDaniels, the heir apparent to current offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien (head coach of Penn State).  O’Brien had a  working game plan for Fewell’s defense the first time around, and the hope now is that Brady doesn’t turn the ball over and muddy the plan.  The biggest challenge is how Belichick handles Eli Manning if he has to put the defense on the field to protect a slim lead.  He’s already failed twice.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Giants.

INTANGIBLES

Where to start.  Well, the pressure is on Tom Brady, that’s for sure.  Even more than Belichick, Brady is probably the lightning rod of the Giants’ attention, as Jason Pierre-Paul, Antrel Rolle, and even Tom Coughlin have expressed their “controlled confidence” as they take veiled shots at the Patriots QB.  Brady has responded by taking shots at himself and raising his own stakes, as he acknowledges how much he “sucked” in the AFC Championship.  In Brady’s first nine playoff games (marked by three Super Bowl wins), Brady threw 11 TDs and 3 INTs.  In the 12 games since, Brady has a 7-5 record, 25 TDs, and 16 INTs.  The last time Brady “sucked” in the AFC Championship was when he threw 3 INTs against the Chargers in January 2008.  He followed that up with a Super Bowl loss to the Giants.  This time, he’s not injured, but TE Rob Gronkowski is.  It is a convenient “what-if” Bowl for the Patriots, with an injured Gronkowski and Andre Carter.  The game is at Lucas Oil Stadium, where Eli Manning’s brother Peyton has most likely played his last game as a member of the Indianapolis Colts.  The Patriots are 0-2 in Lucas Oil Stadium, with the last meeting resulting in “4th and 2″.  The Giants are 0-1, getting blown out 38-14 by Peyton’s Colts last season.  The field probably suits the Giants and their wide receiver speed more than the Patriots though.  This will be the Patriots first indoor game since Thanksgiving 2010 at Detroit.  The Giants narrowly won games at Arizona and Dallas this season, while getting destroyed in New Orleans.  The Patriots might be the AFC team, but expect this to be a pro-Giants crowd.  All of the momentum favors the Giants: health, turf, recent matchups, war of words, etc.  The Patriots are saying all the right things, but the Giants will be the team playing with the most to gain and the least to lose.  ADVANTAGE: Giants.

BOTTOM LINE

This is my final 1SKILLZ Gameplan, and it has been a fun ride through these three seasons covering the New England Patriots.  As much as I want the Patriots to pull the upset (I know what Vegas says, but the Giants don’t feel like underdogs for a reason – they really aren’t), I feel like I have a pulse on this team.  I think the Patriots look at that Oakland Raiders gameplan and run the ball to take pressure off of the Giants pass rush.  It is the same thing the New Orleans Saints did in 2009 and this season to put up 48 and 49 points on the Giants, respectively.  The Giants pass rush can indeed get in a QB’s head, but Brady doesn’t need a healthy Gronkowski to lead the Patriots effectively.  Two weeks of gameplanning suggests the Patriots will be fine offensively.  But can they get the 30 points I think will be necessary to defeat the Giants?  Only if Tom Brady plays a turnover-free game, and I think that he would be hard-pressed to come away with a clean game amidst all that pressure.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the game, Eli Manning has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal.  The Patriots would prefer to get in a shootout with Eli in hopes that Eli puts a few passes in the wrong spot.  But I think the Giants might put up 30+ points on the Patriots.  I think a few early mistakes by Brady, which he has been susceptible to in the last two months, will put the Patriots in a hole that they’ll fail to climb out of.  It will be a sad ending to what has been an incredible season for the New England Patriots, and the most improbable victory for a New York Giants team that was 7-7 with two weeks to go in the regular season … that is, improbable since their last Super Bowl victory.  PREDICTION: Giants 31, Patriots 20.

-1SKILLZ