San Francisco 49ers 2008 Preview Report
July 1, 2008
By Andy Benoit, www.NFLTouchdown.com
Predicted: 4th
2007 record: 5-11 (3rd NFC West)
Head Coach: Mike Nolan (4th season)
*rookie
**new veteran
ROSTER QUICK VIEW
Offense
QB: Alex Smith How many former No. 1 overall picks end up fighting for their job against guys like Shaun Hill and J.T. O’Sullivan?
RB: Frank Gore Everything you could want in a running back (when he actually has some blocking in front for him).
FB: Moran Norris A prototypical fullback: smart, strong, hard-working and stable.
WR: Isaac Bruce** Brought in to share his wisdom of Mike Martz’s offense.
WR: Bryant Johnson** Better than any WR they had last season, but why is his $2 million contract only for one year?
TE: Vernon Davis Watching him go to waste in this inept offense is like watching sand fall in an hour glass.
LT: Joe Staley Became the first Niner rookie O-lineman to start all 16 games. He’s now moving over from RT to his more natural position.
LG: Adam Snyder Slow feet make him a liability at OT, which is why they’re inserting him at G.
C: Eric Heitmann Consummate plug-in guy who can play G or C and at least keep the middle of your O-line afloat.
RG: David Baas Has never lived up to expectations; chance at starting was jeopardized in April when he tore his right pectoral tendon.
RT: Jonas Jennings Has missed 32 games over his three years in the Bay Area. It’ll be a surprise if he’s still starting come New Years.
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QB: Shaun Hill Teammates seem to prefer him over Alex Smith, but keep in mind, he’s only played in 2 ½ games.
RB: DeShaun Foster** Tenacious runner but very average overall. Will spell Gore for four or five carries a game.
WR: Ashley Lelie Do you think his ego is still inflated after catching only 10 passes last season?
WR: Arnaz Battle There’s a lot to like about the former Notre Dame QB; he’s an excellent fit at slot receiver.
TE: Billy Bajema Might be too lanky for a blocking TE, but the only other option here is H-back Delanie Walker.
Defense
DE: Isaac Sopoaga Finally started to make relevant plays on a consistent basis last year. Niners gave him a four-year, $20 million contract to stay.
NT: Aubrayo Franklin This 3-4 defense won’t fully flourish until he’s in a more fitting backup role.
DE: Justin Smith** You’re about to see what 20 million wasted dollars looks like. Good player, but not to the right fit for this scheme.
LOLB: Manny Lawson Intriguing athlete who has a chance to be a unique force for many years. Must first bounce back from torn ACL.
LILB: Brandon Moore Talented enough to start, but for some reason, the Niners are always trying to replace him.
RILB: Patrick Willis Reigning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, might already be the best LB in football.
ROLB: Tully Banta-Cain Game lacks spice. If he were any blander, he’d be a rice cake.
CB: Nate Clements Has $22 million in guarantees to live up to; passing but not nailing the test so far.
SS: Michael Lewis A huge part of both the run and pass defense. Much closer to ’04 Pro Bowl form than people realize.
FS: Mark Roman Lacks awareness. Lacks consistency. Lacks flair. How does this man keep finding starting jobs?
CB: Walt Harris Allergic to tackling but loves the art of man coverage. Would be most effective defending the slot.
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DL: Kentwan Balmer* First-round pick who can play anywhere up front. Niners are relying heavily on his development.
LB: Dontarrious Thomas** Solid coverage skills make him a likely contributor in nickel defense.
NB: Shawntae Spencer Good enough to start but must stop finding comfort from the enlarged cushion he allows in coverage.
Key Acquisitions
WR Isaac Bruce (Stl)
RB DeShaun Foster (Car)
WR Bryant Johnson (Ari)
QB J.T. O’Sullivan (Det)
KR Allen Rossum (Pit)
DE Justin Smith (Cin)
LB Dontarrious Thomas (Min)
Key Losses
G Larry Allen (retired)
QB Trent Dilfer (retired)
DE Marques Douglas (TB)
WR Bryan Gilmore
OT Kwame Harris (Oak)
RB Maurice Hicks (Min)
WR Darrell Jackson (Den)
G Justin Smiley (Mia)
LB Derek Smith (SD)
DT Bryant Young (retired)
For the second year in a row, the 49ers went on a free agent shopping spree (and they’ll have somewhere around $20 million in cap space again next season). Deep pockets or not, guaranteeing $20 million to Smith was unwise. He is the quintessential 4-3 DE––it’s hard to see him thriving on a three-man front. Johnson and Bruce are both upgrades over Gilmore and Jackson at WR. San Francisco will regret letting Smiley slip away. They negotiated with him for over a year and couldn’t stop pitching lowballs. Harris never panned out. Allen and Young were both old, but they were also the team’s best lineman on their respective side of the ball. Young deserves Hall of Fame consideration.
2008 - San Francisco 49ers Draft
Rd Sel # Player Position School
1 29 Kentwan Balmer DE North Carolina
2 39 Chilo Rachal G USC
3 75 Reggie Smith DB Oklahoma
4 107 Cody Wallace C Texas A&M
6 174 Josh Morgan WR Virginia Tech
7 214 Larry Grant OLB Ohio State
Wherever they play Balmer––DE or NT––he’ll be filling a dire need. He’s a classic clogger. They drafted Rachal to be a G but quickly converted him to RT. This will stunt his rookie season growth, but he’ll probably still be called on to start at some point in ’08. Smith is a utility weapon in the secondary, while Wallace is a player that Nolan and his staff coached in the Senior Bowl. Morgan is a project and Grant is a special teams hopeful.
2008 San Francisco 49ers Preview Report
If the San Francisco 49ers were a public company, the major shareholders would be calling for the CEO’s removal. Few could have imagined the amount of talent this team would waste last season. A year ago, the Niners completely emerged out of what fans were referring to as Salary Cap Hell. A decade spent suffering the consequences of the Carmen Policy, Eddie DeBartalo-created financial turmoil had rattled the once proud Football Empire of the West. But with their accounting problems gone and the NFL’s escalated salary cap in place, John York’s organization turned over a new leaf. The 49ers liquidated their $30 million in capital (i.e. cap space) and put it in the hands of Scott McCloughan, instructing the third-year GM to go out and purchase a winning team.
Having just gone an admirable 7-9 under second-year head coach Mike Nolan, day traders and investors took notice of what the Bay Area franchise was doing. With young quarterback Alex Smith and newfound star Frank Gore already in place, the Niners’ stock soared after McCloughan orchestrated deals that brought in free agents like cornerback Nate Clements, safety Michael Lewis, linebacker Tully Banta-Cain and wide receiver Ashley Lelie. Adding a pair of first-round rookies––linebacker Patrick Willis and offensive tackle Joe Staley––only fanned the fire.
The executives at 280 Park Avenue became intrigued. They scheduled four prime time games for the upstart club (one was later revoked). Preseason publications were forecasting a division title, and talking heads were, as usual, playing on the public’s emotions and augmenting the hype.
The 49ers were football’s hottest stock. Problem was, their beta was miles above one. When fall came and injuries and chemistry issues set in, so did the losing. None of it went away, and the team wound up finishing 5-11.
Today, optimism for the Niners feels a lot like $2.50 gas prices: recent yet seemingly long ago. And nowhere near returning. San Francisco’s problems have not come from their new bull market mentality; most of the free agents from last year’s $40 million class have earned their paychecks. And the team’s aggressive spending has not come on high-interest credit. Despite awarding more than $20 million in guarantees to defensive end Justin Smith, wide receivers Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce, and running back DeShaun Foster this past offseason, the Niners will still have around $20 million in cap space next year. And these short-term investments are not compromising the integrity of their organic growth, either. San Francisco has drafted 14 players the past two years, including three in the first round. Heading into training camp, all 14 are on the roster. Overall, McCloughan and company are doing a fine job.
This is what makes the organization’s failures so concerning. Creating success is a tricky concept in the NFL. A big part of it is simply managing your weaknesses. In pro football, a team like the ’06 Colts can set records for futility in run defense yet still win a Super Bowl. Or, a team like the ’07 Giants can be amongst the league leaders in interceptions and dropped passes and still finish on top. Control your weakness and exploit your opponent’s––that’s the name of the game.
There’s just one stipulation: your weakness can’t be at quarterback, offensive line or in the coaching staff. These three pillars are the food, water and shelter of pro football. If one of them breaks, your whole foundation falls. Right now, all three are broken in San Francisco.
The situation is almost bad enough to make finger-pointing inappropriate. Pillar One: Quarterback Alex Smith was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2005. Through his first three seasons he has a record of 6-12 as a starter, and a passer rating of 63.5. He now heads into training camp in a three-way quarterback competition with Shaun Hill and J.T. O’Sullivan.
Pillar Two: Not too long ago the offensive line looked like the cornerstone of the franchise. There was former first-round pick Kwame Harris, second-rounders David Baas and Justin Smiley, big-money free agent Jonas Jennings and future Hall of Famer Larry Allen. Last year, another first-rounder, Joe Staley, was thrown into the mix. As it’s turned out, Harris never stopped underachieving and was allowed to leave. Baas still hasn’t achieved period. Smiley developed into a fine starter only to join the Dolphins this year. The oft-injured Jennings has barely been able to stay on the field. And Allen, coming off his 11th Pro Bowl, unceremoniously retired during the offseason. This leaves Staley, who will move from right tackle to left tackle, and a quartet of either unproven or ungifted big men, to occupy the trenches.
The quarterbacking and offensive line issues are directly tied to Pillar Three: The shaky coaching situation. Mike Martz is the fourth different offensive coordinator that Alex Smith has had in his four-year career. So far, only Norv Turner has clicked with the passer.
Additionally, Smith’s relationship with head coach Mike Nolan is iffy at best. Last year, Nolan publicly questioned the impact that Smith’s shoulder injury had on his poor play. The quarterback accusingly riposted that Nolan was undermining him in the locker room. Nolan has acknowledged that Smith is his most talented quarterback; it would take a great deal of naivety to think that the two men’s acerbic rapport hasn’t factored into the coach’s decision to open up a competition for the starting job.
As for Pillar Three’s relation to the front five, offensive line coach George Warhop did a poor job instructing his unit in ’07. Nolan tacitly acknowledged this when he hired Chris Foerster to come in and be the pass-blocking coach (Warhop stayed on as the run-blocking director). Foerster had better straighten things out; the coordinator he’s working for is the capricious Martz, who blamed his failures in Detroit on sub-par pass protection.
It’s easy to see why the market would reject the 49er franchise. Unless egos are put aside and potential recognized, heads will start rolling by the Bay.
Offense
It’s highly unlikely that Alex Smith won’t be the starting quarterback when the 49ers host the Cardinals on September 7. Erratic as Smith is, he’s still a smart guy blessed with the talent of a former No. 1 overall pick. And, as impressive as Shaun Hill looked in limited action last season, there’s still a reason it took six years for him to even see such action. Smith will start, Hill will back him up, and J.T. O’Sullivan will do exactly what the Niners brought him in to do: hold the clipboard.
O’Sullivan is the only player with prior experience in Mike Martz’s offense, having spent last season in Detroit. As he learned, and as Smith will soon learn, Martz’s Byzantine passing attack is utterly dependent on protection from the front five. Herein lies the problem (a few problems, actually). First, the 49ers are simply not a good pass-blocking team. They gave up the most sacks in football last year (55), which is why they gained the fewest yards and first downs, finished last in passing and third down offense, and averaged a league-low 13.7 points per game (and all this was with Larry Allen and Justin Smiley).
Heading into this season, second-year pro Joe Staley is San Francisco’s best lineman. He must first prove that he can handle the substantial responsibilities of an NFL left tackle. Lining up next to Staley will be Adam Snyder, a fifth-year pro who was drafted to play tackle but instead developed into a utility lineman (which usually means bad tackle but so-so guard). Snyder can mix it up inside, but his 6’6” height and questionable lower-body strength make his job difficult. It doesn’t help that center Eric Heitmann, while intelligent and hard working, routinely has his hands full just with his own assignments, and can’t be counted on to pick up much slack.
The right side of the line is a bigger problem. McCloughan views rookie Chilo Rachal as a poor man’s Larry Allen, which is why he drafted the USC product early in the second round. Rachal (6’4”, 315) played guard for the Trojans though the 49ers sporadically moved him to right tackle early in spring. This verifies their understandable concern about veteran Jonas Jennings. Jennings, one way or another, will likely find himself out of the lineup at some point this season.
It would make all the sense in the world to allow Rachal to ease into the pro game as a guard now that projected right side starter David Baas will be a step behind as he recovers from a weight-lifting induced torn right pectoral muscle suffered back in late April. If Baas is unable to go, the Niners will either start fourth-round rookie Cody Wallace at center and move Heitmann back to his original guard position, or they’ll refer to their usual hole-plugger, Tony Wragge. Veterans acquisitions Qasim Mitchell and Jeb Terry were once starters on other teams, many, many lifetimes ago. Today, neither has any business running with the first unit.
Should the Niners encounter issues with their pass-blocking––and there’s not a reasonable person who doesn’t think they will––they’ll once again see Alex Smith struggle. A product of Urban Meyer’s shotgun offense at Utah, Smith is unable to operate with defenders in his face. His rocket arm requires a comfortable launching pad. Heavy pressure last season resulted in a completion percentage of 48.7. Smith’s yards per attempt was a paltry 4.7 (the league mean was 7.0).
San Francisco stayed within the NFC West to restock its receiving corps. With last year’s starters struggling so mightily at getting open, the Niners opted to sign reliable route runners Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce. Johnson was solid but never lived up to his first-round billing in Arizona (in part because the outbreak of Anquan Boldin lessened his role). His speed will be a plus. Bruce is Canton-bound and, at 35, determined to prove that he can still play. He can, but he won’t post good numbers in this “developing” offense.
Coming off the bench will be underappreciated Arnaz Battle and underachieving Ashley Lelie. Second-year wideout Jason Hill was a third-round pick last season and should be pushing for playing time, but thus far, he’s made very little noise since leaving Washington State.
Of greater concern is the role of third-year tight end Vernon Davis. The former sixth-overall pick is a raging athlete who has the skills to be an elite player. However, Martz’s offense has never emphasized the tight end, which is why it’s hard to see Davis topping his reception total of 52 from a year ago. But if all actually goes to plan, 70-80 receptions are possible. The Niners intend to flex Davis out to the slot more often and put him in motion. However, they’re hesitant to have him deviate too much from his traditional tight end functions because they value his output as a run-blocker (which, by the way, is still improving).
Run-blocking may not matter, though, as Martz’s stubbornness has always been demonstrated through his circumvention of the ground game. When the passing game isn’t clicking, Martz tries to throw his way out of it. When things get worse, he throws harder. It’s a shame because his best player is Frank Gore, the hearty fourth-year pro who has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Martz has indicated that he’ll use Gore much like he used Marshall Faulk. Novel concept, but Gore is not Faulk. Gore is a purebred workhorse who pounds defenses between the tackles. True, he has led the 49ers in receptions each of the past two seasons, but that speaks more to the offense’s ineptitude than his versatility. Gore catches dump-off passes, but he’s not someone you want to split wide. And neither are big-bodied backups DeShaun Foster or Michael Robinson. All of San Francisco’s runners are at their best when they’re grinding behind fullback Moran Norris. It’s not certain if Martz has even heard of the fullback position.
Defense
Right inside linebacker Patrick Willis might be a once-in-a-generation talent. At the very least, he’s the coigne of Mike Nolan’s 3-4 defense. Willis––who benefits from the tutelage of venerable defensive assistant Mike Singletary, a Hall of Fame linebacker himself––led the league with 174 tackles as a rookie last season. He is a terrorizing blitzer, evidenced by his four sacks and 6.5 tackles for a loss. His coverage skills have plenty of room for growth, though he is a part of both the nickel and dime packages (Willis was just one of 18 players in the league to partake in every one of his unit’s snaps last season).
The 49ers spent all offseason looking for an adequate running mate for Willis inside. They visited with veteran free agents Takeo Spikes and Jeremiah Trotter but ultimately decided to stick with their home grown product, Brandon Moore. Moore has been productive when given a chance, including as a pass-rusher off the edge. He has the necessary tools to succeed in interior run defense. However, the coaching staff has never thrown its full support behind Moore. If he should struggle in ’08, aging but capable veteran Jeff Ulbrich, or steady but ho-hum ex-Viking Dontarrious Thomas, will get a look.
The key to any good 3-4 is having a formidable pass rush. The Niners fall short in this sense, though that could potentially change. It was a mistake to sign and start Tully Banta-Cain––there are calendars that are harder to figure out than him. Banta-Cain’s unimaginative pass-rushing repertoire makes supple third-year pro Parys Haralson all the more intriguing. The athletic former fifth-round pick does not necessarily have superstar potential, but if he continues to develop his strength and aggressiveness, he’ll be a very good starter for many years.
In a lot of ways, Haralson is like a Chinese-made version of Manny Lawson (another third-year-pro). The 6’5”, 247-pound Lawson has rare fluidity and is too unique to limit to only pass-rushing assignments. His versatility makes him capable of being a star just about anywhere on the field. However, he must first bounce back from a torn ACL that ended his season last September. Two other linebackers to consider but not anticipate are Jay Moore, a second-year pro with pass-rushing potential, and Roderick Green, a former Raven who possesses good explosiveness off the corner.
The Niners have the makings of a viable linebacking core; they must hope that the front line can progress as expected. Longtime Bengal Justin Smith was brought in to occupy the right defensive end slot. Smith, a classic 4-3 end who they’ll likely move around, is not an ideal fit for base end duties in this system. He is, however, still an enormous upgrade over the now-departed Marques Douglas. Isaac Sopoaga had his best season last year, which may or may not have had something to do with his looming free agency. San Francisco gave him $20 million over four years to stay, and then moved him from reserve defensive tackle to starting defensive end. Sopoaga has excellent strength and should thrive as an anchor on the outside.
Everything about nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin screams backup, which is why McCloughan drafted North Carolina’s Kentwan Balmer in the first round. Balmer comes into the league weighing 308 pounds, a number he’ll need to increase in order to handle the rigors of the NFL. Don’t’ be surprised if he struggles early on.
Ray McDonald showed okay athleticism as a third-round rookie last season, but he’s nowhere near physical enough to play on a three-man front. If he doesn’t gambol less and grind more, either Melvin Oliver, Ron Fields or Atiyyah Ellison will capture his role.
The 49ers have so far seen a nice return on their investments in cornerback Nate Clements and strong safety Michael Lewis. Clements is not quite a shutdown corner, but he’s a playmaker who requires very little help in coverage. Lewis is a cog in the run defense, thanks mainly to a sturdy 226-pound frame that gives him good power at the point of attack.
Free safety Mark Roman can be a liability in coverage, which is why you may see utility defensive back Donald Strickland or third-round rookie Reggie Smith crack the starting lineup at some point. Strickland is more of a special teams player (there’s actually a cap-friendly incentive in his contract that pays him a $7 million bonus if he blocks 15 punts this season). Smith was drafted as a cornerback, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to surpass man-to-man guru Walt Harris or agile Shawntae Spencer on the depth chart.
Special Teams
Having a prolific punter can be bittersweet. On the one hand, it’s a constant reminder of how shamefully porous your offense is. On the other, it’s better than having a non-prolific punter. Insert Andy Lee. One of two Pro Bowlers on the team last year (Patrick Willis was the other), Lee averaged a staggering 41.0 net yards per punt, second best in NFL history. Oddly enough, the best net punting average all-time was established last year by the guy across the Bay (Shane Lechler, 41.1). Lee did, however, set the NFL record for punts inside the 20, with 55.
Kicker Joe Nedney was 17/19 on field goals last season and made all of his attempts inside 50 yards. When he’s healthy, he’s dependable. Allen Rossum, a veteran return specialist, was brought in to handle kick and punt return duties.
Bottom Line
There are encouraging patches of talent on this roster. In fact, there could be as many as 10 former first-round picks in the starting lineup in ’08. The problem is, the most expensive one of those former first-rounders is not playing up to snuff. If quarterback Alex Smith struggles, the chemistry issues that are boiling beneath the surface of the locker room could erupt. Considering how questionable the coaching staff is, and how poor a fit Mike Martz’s scheme is for this offense at the moment, disaster seems imminent.
Myth Buster
Myth: Michael Lewis is a sub-par safety
Lewis is once again playing at the level that sent him to the Pro Bowl as an Eagle in 2004. His physicality in run defense has been a blessing to this team. Last season, Lewis finished second to Patrick Willis in tackles with 105. He is a noticeable presence in the box and a demon when left unblocked.
In coverage is where Lewis’s struggles began in Philly. Now, confidence no longer shaken, he has gained a commendable understanding of his assignments in Greg Manusky’s defense, making consistent reads and plays on the ball. Lewis does not have flashy speed, which is why he’ll never be a game-breaker. But at 226 pounds, he makes up for it by packing a punch.
Open Thought
It is impossible to watch a 49ers home game and not get distracted by the empty seats cornered back around the 20-yard-line. Surrounded by a red sea of fans, the bright orange seats serve as a reminder that Monster Park (formerly known as Candlestick) was originally built with both the Niners and baseball’s Giants in mind. The Giants have since moved to their own new stadium along the shores of the China Basin. The 49ers, meanwhile, have been bickering with local politicians for more than a decade about getting a new home. In the meantime, television viewers will keep glancing at the bright orange seats, noting the three or four people who always seem to be standing amongst them, wondering why those people are standing there and if they know how easy they are to spot on TV.
