Reservations About the Jared Allen Trade
April 24, 2008
Ask yourself, What does a mid-first-round draft pick need to do in his career in order to be successful? Would leading the league in sacks at 26 years old be sufficient return on such an investment? Nine GM’s out of 10 would tell you Yes (the other GM would tell you he’s on crack).
This is what gives me reservations about Kansas City’s trade of All-Pro defensive end Jared Allen to Minnesota. The entire goal of the draft is to find players like Allen. Trading the proven product for unknown draft picks is one of football’s highest forms of gambling. Of course, the operative piece here is the “s” at the end of “pick.”
The Chiefs received the 17th overall choice as well as two third-rounders (there was also a swap of sixth-round picks) in exchange for the disgruntled defensive end.
Economically, the trade makes all the sense in the world for Kansas City. The Vikings got stuck with the inevitable bill that comes with a franchised superstar (in this case, $31 million just in guaranteed money for Allen’s new six-year contract). The Chiefs will still have to pony up for two first-round picks (no. 5 and 17), but they’ll owe just $10 million or so to whoever they snag at No. 17. That’s a savings of $20 million when compared to what Allen cost.
And, as part of Herman Edwards’s rebuilding project, acquiring two additional third-round draft picks is a positive. Especially given that the Chiefs have about 10 or 11 gaping holes to fill.
But when you boil it back down to the bottom line you realize that the odds of Kansas City finding a player who can step on the field each Sunday and match Allen’s output are remarkably low. Players like Allen can fill multiple holes because of destruction they cause and attention they demand make life easier on middle-tier talents around them (see Alphonso Boone By losing Allen, the Chiefs have also lost parts of their defensive tackles and outside run defense (assuming Tamba Hali moves over to the right side now). Solid players don’t offer the trickle down effect that superstars do. The Steelers won the Super Bowl after Troy Polamalu became a star. The Colts cemented their Super Bowl title once Bob Sanders stayed healthy. The Giants beat the Patriots because New York had Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan, which made it impossible for New England to commit extra blockers to combat the Giant inside blitzes that felled Brady. Football’s not basketball, but make no mistake about it, superstars make the difference. The Chiefs had one in Allen. Now, they’re hoping to find one this weekend.
P.S. We’re reminded that Allen wasn’t happy in KC and had vowed not to play for GM Carl Peterson. Fine. And name one player who has ever followed through on that threat – name one guy who actually did sit out an entire season.
I’ll check back in with you later.
I think KC did the right thing as they are in a rebuilding mold right now. The Vikes think they are one or two players away from making a playoff run but the problem is they do not have a QB.
They could have let him play another season in KC and then he would have left and the Chiefs would have received nothing. Nothing. He had already vowed not to resign with the Chiefs. Why not get a mid first round pick like Branden Albert who can help an O-line that is in shambles?
Minnesota overpaid his contract. KC would have never offered him that kind of money. I believe it was a great trade, but time will tell.
I thought Sean Gilbert sat out a couple of years when he was trying to work over the Skins.
Jason, you are right, Gilbert sat out the ‘97 season. He is one player you CAN name. I will stand by my point here because Gilbert sat out over $3.7 million….not $8+ million. But I stand corrected.