Ravens-Patriots: Analyzing The Key Matchups
Ravens QB Joe Flacco vs. Patriots DB’s Brandon Meriweather, Brandon McGowan, Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler: Ravens fans have been bothered by Joe Flacco - for some reason - because of his “struggles”. However, he has set franchise records in several categories, and has still managed to win. In fact, if the receivers catch a pair of easy passes and Steve Hauschka makes a field goal, Joe is a 12-win quarterback. On the year, he finished with 3,613 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He had more yards, a better rating, more touchdowns, and the same amount of interceptions as last season. The Patriots defensive backs are young.
They have a fine young safety in Brandon Meriweather, and young corners like Leigh Bodden, Jonathan Wilhite, and Darius Butler. In the Week 4 meeting, Flacco basically got the best of the group, with 264 yards and two touchdowns.
Edge: Flacco.
Ravens RB’s Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain vs. Patriots LB’s Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Adalius Thomas, Tully Banta Cain: Over the last two years, a huge part of the Ravens offense has been the run. Last year, they boasted a powerful three-headed monster, led by All-Pro fullback Le’Ron McClain. This year, they aren’t as balanced, but probably more powerful. Ray Rice ran for over 1,300 yards, Le’Ron McClain made his second straight Pro Bowl - this time as a good lead blocker, and Willis McGahee has a breakout season, with 14 total touchdowns. Rice is like Brian Westbrook - he hurts you in the run and the pass. McGahee and McClain are both situational backs, albeit effective ones.
The Patriots linebackers are both young and old. Mayo and Guyton exhibit the kind of future the Patriots have - a bright one. Both Thomas and Cain, however, represent how the Patriots have always had a strong, veteran defensive group. Cain has some sacks (10), and nobody notices. However, Thomas, a much more hyped player, a former Pro Bowler, has really struggled and may even get released after the year. In the Week 4 meeting, a lesser-known Rice ran all over the Pats, with 103 yards on just 11 carries.
Edge: Ravens RB’s.
Ravens WR’s Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, Kelley Washington vs. Patriots DB’s Brandon Meriweather, Brandon McGowan, Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler: For both teams, neither is a strength. You could say the Ravens receivers have lost them games, and the Patriots DB’s, while they can’t be blamed too much because of their age, have struggled this season. Meriweather is a Pro Bowl caliber safety, but McGowan, Wilhite, and Butler are learning on the fly.
Conversely, the Ravens have a group of decent, but nothing more veterans at the wide receiver position. Mason has had a productive season, but has struggled with drops. Clayton is his usual Mr. Jekyl and Dr. Hyde self while Washington is good, but no more than a No. 3 option. The Ravens don’t have great receivers, nor do the Patriots have a greats secondary, but the since the Pats’ group has shown more improvement steadily, I give them the edge.
Edge: Patriots DB’s.
Ravens TE’s Todd Heap, L.J. Smith vs. Patriots LB’s Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Tully Banta Cain, Adalius Thomas: Outside of Baltimore, not much is made of the year Todd Heap is having. But at the tight end position, he’s been a huge factor. He’s still a very good blocker, and this year, he’s been more consistent catching the football, reminiscing what he was in the early 2000’s. Going into Week 17, he had caught 51 of the 69 passes thrown his way, had just two drops, and six touchdown receptions. He’ll go against a Patriots group that is very talented.
Mayo has still been quite good this season, but not nearly as impressive as last. He’s been mediocre, at best, in coverage. Guyton, also a young guy, has been learning on the job, and is also lackluster in coverage. Cain has added some needed pass rush, but struggles in pass coverage. Thomas has also been bad there, too. So, this matchup favors Heap in dramatic fashion. The Ravens didn’t utilize him much in the Week 4 matchup, but they should here.
Edge: Ravens TE’s.
Ravens OL Jared Gaither, Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, Marshall Yanda, Michael Oher vs. Patriots DL Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Derrick Burgess: Both of these teams can win through the air, but have done a marvelous job over the years of winning games up front. The Ravens have long had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and this year is no exception. Gaither is really coming into his own, Grubbs is a Pro Bowl alternate, Birk, a six-time Pro Bowl selection, is having a great season, Yanda is stepping up, and Oher has had a tremendous rookie year. They’ve blocked the run extremely well, and while Flacco has had some pressure on occasion, he’s been pretty well protected all season long.
On the other hand, the Patriots have as good a defensive line as anyone in the NFL. Warren, Wilfork, and Burgess are all very well-known veterans. Wilfork is in the Pro Bowl this year, while Warren and Burgess attempt to apply the pressure at the defensive end position. However, that pressure has been a problem for the Pats, as I mentioned. Wilfork is one to watch for. He’s had another good year, and the Ravens did a good job of handling a strong line in the Week 4 meeting.
Edge: Ravens OL.
Ravens DL Trevor Pryce, Haloti Ngata, Kelly Gregg, Terrell Suggs vs. Patriots OL Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Steven Neal, Nick Kaczur: This will be the most interesting battle, to me. The Ravens have always had a strong defensive line, and that doesn’t change this season. Pryce is 34, but has 6 1/2 sacks, Ngata made the Pro Bowl, Suggs is a three-time Pro Bowler and is versatile. Even Gregg, a lesser known guy, has had a very good season at defensive tackle.
However, this group will be tested against a Patriots offensive line that has long been considered one of the best in the business. Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, and Kaczur are all very much respected around the league. Combined, they have 31 years of experience and five Pro Bowls. In the first meeting, the Ravens were just adjusting to the scheme, and couldn’t get much pressure, and while the defense is playing much better lately, I don’t expect that to change. This year, Tom has been sacked just 18 times.
Edge: Patriots OL.
Ravens LB’s Ray Lewis, Tavares Gooden, Dannell Ellerbe vs. Patriots RB’s Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis: This isn’t particularly close. Over the years, the Ravens have been probably the best team against the run, thanks to future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis. An 11-time Pro Bowler, he has taken pride in not allowing teams to run the football well. And in four years, just three runners have gotten 100-yard games against Baltimore. And remember - those guys were Adrian Peterson, Larry Johnson (in 2006), and Cedric Benson - three big-time backs.
The Patriots don’t have those backs, and don’t even really establish the run. The NFL has become a passing league, and the Patriots are taking advantage of that. They don’t run the ball, so stopping the run isn’t even a worry for the Ravens linebackers, and that could play well for them, considering it’s expected to be in the 20’s during the game.
Edge: Ravens LB’s.
Ravens LB’s Ray Lewis, Tavares Gooden, Dannell Ellerbe vs. Patriots TE’s Ben Watson, Chris Baker: If the Ravens have one thing at the linebacker position, they have complete players. They’ve proven they can play the run, but also cover well. Ellerbe and Gooden are young, athletic players who earned a lot of their draft stock covering guys. Ellerbe has really improved through this season, as has Gooden. Ray has always been good in coverage, and at 34, he’s not as good at it now, but he’s still impressive.
As far as the Patriots tight ends go, I won’t go as far as to say that the Ravens don’t need to worry about Watson, but he’s not as much a factor as a guy like Moss. Watson has developed well and is a solid pass-catching tight end, but I don’t envision a scenario in which the Ravens have noticeable struggles covering him.
Ravens DB’s Ed Reed, Dawan Landry, Domonique Foxworth, Chris Carr vs. Patriots WR’s Randy Moss, Julian Edelman, Sam Aiken: With the loss of Wes Welker, the Ravens have a much easier task ahead of them - though Randy Moss is no slouch. The Ravens DB’s have taken a lot of criticism this season, and at times, it’s been deserved. Both Carr and Foxworth struggled adjusting to the system early, but have figured it out and are playing good ball lately. Ed Reed is a Pro Bowler, and a starting free safety for the AFC squad. Dawan Landry, however, has had struggles - ignore the stats.
The Patriots have Randy Moss - which is almost enough in itself. Foxworth did a fine job of limiting Moss in the first meeting, holding him to three catches, but he also had a touchdown catch, which put the Pats up by 10 early. Now, with Welker out, the Ravens can key in on Moss. While Edelman has been rather impressive, he doesn’t pose nearly as much of a threat as Welker or Moss.
Edge: Patriots WR’s.
Patriots QB Tom Brady vs. Ravens DB’s Ed Reed, Dawan Landry, Domonique Foxworth, Chris Carr: In the first matchup, Brady basically walked all over the Ravens secondary, going 21-of-32 with 258 yards and a touchdown. Now, granted, the Ravens secondary was basically at an all-time low at this point, but then again, Brady is Brady. Tom Terrific has played well in just about every game against Baltimore, and I don’t expect that to change.
Edge: Brady.
Six Possible Outcomes:
Patriots 26, Ravens 23 - Pats win a squeaker thanks to a late drive.
Ravens 17, Patriots 14 - Ravens win a defensive struggle.
Patriots 30, Ravens 21 - Brady and Moss dominate.
Ravens 31, Patriots 23 - Flacco carves up a young Pats secondary.
Patriots 27, Ravens 17 - Pats lead early and hold on late.
Ravens 24, Patriots 17 - Ravens win a tight game.
Regardless of the winner, I don’t think either team will “dominate”. It’ll be close; likely determined in the final few minutes of the game. Neither team has lived up to its hype this season, but are teams who are tough to play in the postseason.