The New England Patriots lead the AFC East with a 7-5 record, but that might be the only good news the Patriots have after losing at Land Shark Stadium to the Miami Dolphins 22-21.  It was the Patriots’ third loss in three games.  It was QB Tom Brady’s first December loss since 2006, a 21-0 loss at Miami.  A week after losing to an NFC team during the regular season for the first time since September 2005, the Patriots lost two straight games for the first time since November 2006.  They are 1-5 on the road, and that one win was in London against the 1-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They even got bad news via other teams!  The 12-0 Indianapolis Colts beat the 5-7 Tennessee Titans 27-17, not only ending the Titans’ pipe dream winning streak, but also tying the New England Patriots’ record for most consecutive regular season wins at 21.  And the 12-0 New Orleans Saints were done in Washington until Redskins K Shaun Suisham missed a chip shot FG attempt late in the 4th quarter up 30-23.  What followed was: a bomb from QB Drew Brees to WR Robert Meachem for a TD, only his second most miraculous TD of the game behind his fumble return for a TD following Redskins SS Kareem Moore’s INT at the end of the first half; an INT of QB Jason Campbell by ILB Jonathan Vilma; a missed long FG by Saints K Garret Hartley that led to OT; an OT coin toss won by the Redskins, only for FB Mike Sellers to lose a fumble; and a chip shot FG by Hartley to give the Saints an improbable 33-30 victory.  It was quite reminiscent of the Patriots’ 2007 run of escaping defeat, and perhaps a nice view of what the Patriots were at this time two years ago.

Where the Patriots are right now is in a precocious situation.  As recently as 14 minutes left in the 4th quarter at Indianapolis, the 6-2 Patriots looked like unquestioned Super Bowl contenders with a 31-14 lead.  But then the season turned on Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s call to go for it on 4th down in his own territory.  Since that call, it has become painfully obvious that the New England Patriots are two teams: One with a Super Bowl contender but predictable offense, and one with a clearly regressing and seemingly rebuilding defense.  The Patriots scored on the first possession of the game (a 58 yard TD pass deep to WR Randy Moss following a double play action fake), took a 14-0 second quarter lead after a 6 yard TD run by RB Kevin Faulk to end a 13 play drive, took a 21-10 lead on Brady’s first pass of the second half after an 81 yard bomb to WR Sam Aiken for a TD (the longest play of the season for the Patriots), and entered the 4th quarter with a 21-19 lead.

But even up to that point, there were concerns:  The Patriots wasted a second quarter INT by SS Brandon Meriweather and a season long 58 yard reception by WR Wes Welker when FB Sammy Morris was stopped by Dolphins OLB Joey Porter on 4th and 1 at the Miami 6 yard line after the 2 minute warning.  The Patriots offense followed up Aiken’s third quarter TD reception by punting twice (the first time going three and out, the second time after an offensive pass interference penalty on Aiken that wiped out a conversion by Welker).  The Dolphins answered Faulk’s TD by going 88 yards and ending a 10 play drive with a 15 yard TD pass from QB Chad Henne to WR Davone Bess, the third 3rd down conversion of the drive.  After Porter’s 4th down stop of Morris inside two minutes, Henne ran a two-minute drill that ended in a Dan Carpenter FG from 29 yards.  After Aiken’s TD, the Patriots kickoff coverage had a rare lapse, allowing 51 yards on the return by Dolphins KR Ted Ginn to the Miami 48.  On the ensuing 3rd down, Patriots CB Jonathan Wilhite was penalized 37 yards for pass interference after getting burned by Dolphins WR Brian Hartline, which led to a FG.  And after going three and out, the Dolphins drove 64 yards in 10 plays, with the Patriots giving up another 3rd down TD off of play action (this time it was 7 yards in the back corner of the end zone to Hartline).  The Dolphins failed to get the two-point conversion, but they entered the 4th quarter down two on their own 3 yard line, with the Patriots’ secondary on their heels.

When I said the Patriots had a Super Bowl caliber offense, it was shown by the 21 points they scored.  When I said the Patriots’ offense is predictable, it was shown by Brady’s red zone pass to Moss being intercepted by CB Vontae Davis in the end zone.  The INT marked the second failed red zone trip of the game for the Patriots, and you already know how costly that is in hindsight because this was a one point game.  The Patriots’ defense would force two punts, but the Patriots’ offense went three and out both times.  Trusting his defense to contain QB Chad Henne for a fourth time in the 4th quarter, Belichick actually chose to punt from his own 39 yard line with 3:55 left!  Dolphins PR Davone Bess returned P Chris Hanson’s 42 yard punt 7 yards to the Miami 26.  Chad Henne was not supposed to be able to win this game in the 4th quarter, right?  That’s definitely what I thought as I was writing the 1SKILLZ Gameplan for this game.  But Henne had already led ran a successful two-minute drill to end the first half.  With 2:09 left and one timeout remaining, Henne faced 4th and 6 from the New England 41 yard line.  In a similar situation against the Baltimore Ravens in week 4, the Patriots were up 6 when Ravens WR Mark Clayton ran a comeback route pass the 1st down marker but dropped a 4th down pass from Joe Flacco that would have given the Ravens a chance to beat the Patriots.  Despite safety help, Patriots rookie CB Darius Butler allowed Dolphins WR Greg Camarillo to run a comeback route and Henne found him for a 13 yard first down, putting Miami in FG position.  It was Henne’s 52nd (and final) pass of the game and his 29th completion, as he ended up with a career high 335 yards.  From there the game was on Dan Carpenter after the Dolphins used Ricky Williams to take the Patriots’ remaining timeouts, and he came through with the game winning FG from 41 yards.  Despite the Boston Patriots uniforms, there would be no miracle comeback like the season opener against the Buffalo Bills for Tom Brady.  With under a minute left and no timeouts, RT Nick Kaczur was beaten by Dolphins OLB Cameron Wake.  As Brady threw Wake hit him from his strong side, and ILB Channing Crowder iced the game with an INT.

This is a team loss for the New England Patriots, but to blame this on Belichick (again) for going for it on 4th down in scoring position is a cop out.  The offense had 3 second half three and outs, Morris and the offensive line should have converted on 4th down in the second quarter, and Brady should not have thrown an INT in the end zone in the 4th quarter as even a FG in that situation would have forced the Dolphins to score a third TD to win.  But to blame the loss on just the offense’s inability to produce in the second half ignores the fact that the Patriots put up enough points to win this game.  Maybe you can blame the Patriots’ special teams for giving up a big kickoff return to Ted Ginn, but P Chris Hanson also put the Dolphins on the 3 yard line to start the 4th quarter.  The fact is that the defense, especially the secondary, has proven to be consistently vulnerable.  None of the Patriots CBs are reliable at this point.  Leigh Bodden bit on the play action TD pass to Hartline.  Wilhite was benched against the Saints and burned for a 37 yard penalty defending Hartline.  Butler was picked on often in this game, most critically on Henne’s last pass of the game.  CB Shawn Springs can’t even get on the field anymore.  CB Terrence Wheatley was a second round pick in 2008 but is undersized and rarely used on defense.  Meriweather had the INT, but had no tackles in this game.  FS Brandon McGowan had been playing well this season, but TE Anthony Fasano caught five passes for 67 yards.  The nonexistent pass rush (OLB Tully Banta-Cain and ILB Jerod Mayo shared the only sack of Henne in 53 passing plays) doesn’t help matters at all.  Chad Henne grew up today on the Patriots’ watch.  The blueprint for how to beat the New England Patriots has been laid by the Saints and confirmed by the Dolphins:  No matter what New England does on offense, just protect the football, run the ball to manage the clock, and attack the CBs as much as possible since there will be minimal pressure on the QB.  Coming soon: the New England Patriots 3rd quarter report.

-1SKILLZ