When previewing teams looking to make that jump from bottom-dweller to playoff contender, the process generally whittles down to identifying one or two key factors that will ultimately decide the immediate fate of said team. For example, the San Francisco 49ers will become a playoff team if they find a solid quarterback to lead their offense.

The New York Jets will become a playoff team if their passing game can evolve just enough to take pressure off their defense. The Buffalo Bills will become a playoff team if their pass-rush blossoms.

But it’s not so simple with the Oakland Raiders. The stunning turmoil of this once-proud franchise leaves any postseason hope trapped behind a litany of complex factors and virtually unconquerable obstacles. It’s been like this since the Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay. That said, it’s summer, which means Raider fans are looking at their team’s raw talent––which is always as good as any in football––and formulating anticipation for a sudden revival. It’s no use trying to explain to a Raider fan that their joke of a team––which is 24-72 since that Super Bowl loss––is destined for another four-or five-win season. The logic falls on ears that remain deaf until late October, by when all hope is usually lost for the Silver and Black.

So, just for fun, we’ll play along with the Raider fans this year. We’ll approach this intro with the question, What must Oakland do to become a playoff team? Here it goes…

The Raiders will become a playoff team if…

**Quarterback JaMarcus Russell suddenly becomes accurate, intelligent and accountable.

**Running back Darren McFadden learns to read NFL defenses and maintain balance when moving laterally. (In other words, if McFadden starts playing well.)

**Rookie wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey disproves doubters and justifies his No. 7 overall draft status, and if one of the host of other young pass-catching options steps up. (At this point, not one of Oakland’s wide receivers would be any more than a No. 4 for most clubs.)

The Raiders will become a playoff team if….

**They can coax talented but unreliable offensive tackles Mario Henderson and Khalif Barnes into playing fundamentally sound football.

**Defensive tackles Gerard Warren and Terdell Sands can regularly play like the blocker-eating forces they’re supposed to be––and if linebackers Thomas Howard and Kirk Morrison can become playmakers against the run.

The Raiders will become a playoff team if…

**Two quality safeties can emerge from the hodgepodge of injury magnets and underachievers currently filling the position (this group includes Michael Huff, Hiram Eugene, Tyvon Branch and second-round rookie Mike Mitchell).

**De facto first-year head coach Tom Cable can command a hint of authority. For that to happen, owner Al Davis must remove himself from the day-to-day operations.

And herein lies the problem. The odds of all the above mentioned what-if scenarios actually coming to fruition are just a tick above nil. With Davis meddling in affairs, those odds fall to zero. It’s sad to see the 80-year-old pro football pioneer tarnish what might be the league’s most impressive legacy. But that’s exactly what Davis, with his archaic management style, is doing. His influence over the gameplan renders the Raiders offense embarrassingly predictable on Sundays. His insistence on traditional man-to-man defense makes for a reactionary unit. At times, Davis’s management of the salary cap can be downright absurd; his draft moves are often even more bizarre. (Davis could have traded down and still snatched Heyward-Bey in Round One, and many expected his second-round pick, Mike Mitchell, to be available in Round Six or Seven.)

You’re naïve if you believe that Cable––whom Davis hastily hired after firing Lane Kiffin, even though the owner “(didn’t) know much about him”––has an ounce of political capital in the locker room. Cable talks a brave game and might classify as a “no nonsense” guy, but bullets trump words when it comes to curtailing anarchy. The only man in Oakland who is truly armed is Davis. And he’s shown that he’ll fire at coaches well before he ever fires at players.

Offense

Oakland is where veteran leaders come to die. This is why no one should get too excited about the arrival of quarterback Jeff Garcia. The 11^th-year pro was brought in to tutor JaMarcus Russell, but in fact, it’s Garcia who gives this team the best chance at winning. It seems senseless––maybe even reckless––to bench a former top first-round pick in only his third season. But ask the Tennessee Titans how well that scenario can work.

The difference between Russell and Vince Young, though, is that while the former hasn’t proven to be the most mature of 24-year-old’s, he at least hasn’t displayed outright emotional fragility.

But the absence of emotional fragility does not equate to the presence of leadership and stability. That will only come when Russell starts playing better. To do that, he must grasp the nuances of new coordinator Ted Tollner’s offense––which has been tweaked to cater to the quarterback’s canon arm––and become drastically more precise in his passing.

Russell’s receivers need to step up as well. Darrius Heyward-Bey will likely be shoved into the starting lineup right away, even though a hamstring injury limited the green speedster during the offseason. Some observers believe that fourth-round rookie Louis Murphy, who comes from Florida’s spread offense, could actually be the better player in 2009. Murphy has 6’2” size and first-rate speed. He’ll likely begin the season behind Chaz Schilens, a seventh-rounder a year ago who can climb the ladder and stretch the field (notice speed seems to be a trend among Davis’s receivers?).

In the long haul, however, Schilens might actually be a better possession receiver. This would benefit the Raiders, considering that enigmatic Javon Walker is their only other wideout of similar ilk. Walker, who essentially took a pay cut to remain with the team, had offseason knee surgery without the club’s knowledge, then declared that his knee has never been more than 65 percent since it was originally injured in 2005. In a logical world, Walker would have been cut long ago and replaced by electrifying return weapon Johnnie Lee Higgins.

Tight end Zach Miller will be Oakland’s most reliable receiving option this season, assuming he’s not required to help out in pass protection so often. The well-framed Miller’s improvements as a blocker last season were almost more a symbol of the ineptitude of the offensive tackles (who were the reason he stayed in and blocked).

The hope is that this ineptitude will abate with the development of 24-year-old Mario Henderson on the left side. Henderson has first-class athletic tools and did a fine job against Richard Seymour, Mario Williams and Gaines Adams in Oakland’s final three games last season. Former Jaguars second-round pick Khalif Barnes was signed to compete for Henderson’s spot, but expect him instead to overtake sluggish right tackle Cornell Green. Barnes isn’t good enough in pass protection to protect a quarterback’s blindside, but he’s athletic enough to operate on the move from the right side in Cable’s zone-blocking scheme. Also worthy of consideration is former Bronco Erik Pears, who would actually be a sounder all-around option than Barnes.

Between the tackles are guards Robert Gallery and Cooper Carlisle and center Samson Satele. Gallery has found his niche inside, where he takes crafty angles as a run-blocker. Carlisle lacks power but has mastered this zone system. Satele also lacks power (that’s why Miami dealt him for a sixth-round pick) but coaches think he can do a better job out in front than veteran John Wade.

Perhaps it would have been prudent to introduce Darren McFadden earlier in this report. After all, he’s supposed to be the lynchpin on offense. McFadden is a galvanizing, versatile athlete, but he’s not an ideal NFL runner. He lacks balance, vision and lateral pliability. If Davis weren’t calling the shots, McFadden would probably be relegated to a Reggie Bush-like utility role behind laudable veteran Justin Fargas. Powerful Michael Bush gives the Raiders backfield three viable ball-handlers, while fullback Lorenzo Neal should create the running lanes that Oren O’Neal and Luke Lawton couldn’t open up last year.

Defense

The Raiders have yielded 152.8 yards per game on the ground over the last two seasons, a stunning statistic that most 10-man defenses could do better than. With essentially the same personnel that Rob Ryan had, new defensive coordinator John Marshall must make improvements from within. Marshall’s scheme should put this poor-tackling defense in fewer one-on-one situations, but in the end, whatever tactics the ex-Seahawk linebackers coach employs will be reliant on the front seven simply playing better.

It starts at defensive tackle. Gerard Warren and Terdell Sands are both massive, earth-tilting pounders who lack endurance. But if they rotate snaps, they should stay fresh. Of course, they rotated snaps last season to no avail (Warren’s inconsistent effort was a factor). Defensive tackle Tommy Kelly is now two years removed from ACL surgery, which coaches hope means he’ll live up to the $18 million in guarantees he got last year. The reality is that Kelly is a good penetrator and energetic run-stopper, but one worth only about $10 million in guarantees. He’s also a better run-stopper on the outside.

The men starting in those outside slots will be third-year pro Jay Richardson and longtime Cowboy Greg Ellis. Neither should be expected to reach the quarterback often in ’09––Richardson because he’s simply an extraordinary run defender with minimal initial quickness, and Ellis because he’ll be 34 and getting re-acclimated to putting his hand in the dirt. Ellis is taking the starting job of Derrick Burgess, who, with sack numbers that have dropped from 16 to 11 to 8 to 3.5 over the last four seasons, seems old. Burgess, however, is only 31 as of August 12.

Third-round rookie Matt Shaughnessy is more of a base-end type, which means his arrival is a means to push Richardson. What the Raiders need, though, is a bona fide pass-rusher. The only man fitting this bill is Trevor Scott, a former college tight end who led all NFL rookies with five sacks last season. Scott, however, barely weighs 260 and doesn’t flash resounding initial quickness.

For some reason, people love to tout Oakland’s mediocre linebackers. Specifically, middle man Kirk Morrison and weaksider Thomas Howard. Morrison improved in 2008 but still takes too many missteps and doesn’t close with a great burst (particularly in the flats). Howard is superb in coverage but too often absent against the run. These issues, however, pale in comparison to the problem at strongside linebacker. Two-hundred-and-thirty-two-pound Jon Alston is slated to start, but his inability to disengage from blocks makes his chances at success slightly below Kevin Federline’s. Ricky Brown started here last season but is coming off serious double groin surgery. Fourth-round pick Slade Norris offers good speed (he can also rush the passer) but the veteran in front of him, Sam Williams, is said to be an Al Davis favorite.

Saving the best for last, we come to Nnamdi Asomugha, the premiere corner in the NFL today. Asomugha is perhaps the only player in the game who can truly shut down an entire half of a field. He’s not quite worth the possible $50 million that his new three-year contract could end up paying him, but it’s hard to criticize Davis for finding a way to hold onto the estimable seventh-year superstar.

Opposite Asomugha is Chris Johnson, another fine cover artist who, at 29, is actually just starting to sprout. If Stanford Routt’s attitude improves, he’ll hold the nickel job. If not, it will go to speedy Justin Miller. At safety, Oakland is looking to get physical, which is why they reached for Mike Mitchell in the second round. The hard-hitting Mitchell hails from tiny Ohio University, which means he may need a year to adjust to the pro game. In the meantime, expect last season’s fourth-round pick Tyvon Branch––a player with similar attributes––to start ahead of reactionary former first-round pick Michael Huff at strong safety. When Mitchell’s ready to contribute, the Raiders would ostensibly like to start him in the box and slide Branch back to undrafted veteran Hiram Eugene’s free safety position.

Special Teams

Sebastian Janikowski has a monstrous foot and can at least attempt field goals in excess of 60 yards. Shane Lechler is deservedly the highest-paid punter in NFL history. His distance and placement are sublime. Johnnie Lee Higgins has been known to make mistakes in the return game, but he also took three punts to the house last season. Also, Justin Miller is a Pro Bowl-level kick returner.

Bottom Line

Same old story in Oakland: lots of talent, lots of potential and lots of chaos. If this were a normal-functioning franchise, it’d be roughly a 6-10 type team with the possibility of erupting for nine or ten wins. But because it’s the Raiders, this is a 6-10 type team with the possibility of crumbling to 11 or 12 losses.

Predicted finish: 4^th AFC West