You all will have to forgive me, I have to cut this 1SKILLZ Gameplan a little shorter than what you’re used to!  Moves have to be made!  But before I skip town, I have to release the 1SKILLZ Gameplan for the peoples.  Joey Porter would like you all to know that the DEFENDING AFC EAST CHAMPION Miami Dolphins (3-4) are coming to New England to face the Patriots (5-2).

Now, Porter and Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano have a good point about the AFC East: the division still goes through them.  Now, they are the defending champions.  This is about as relevant a point to 2009 as the Tennessee Titans being the defending champions of the AFC South.  What IS relevant is that the Dolphins, coming off of a 30-25 win against the New York Jets, control their own destiny with Sunday’s game at New England and a rematch four weeks later in Miami.  Both teams have three games in between, but New England also has, arguably, the harder schedule.  In between Dolphins/Patriots games, the Dolphins face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Carolina Panthers on a short week, and at Buffalo.  The Patriots go to Indianapolis, host the Jets, and go to New Orleans.  With that said, the AFC East title is still very much on the line.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE

Joey Porter hates the Patriots very much and is open to talking about it.  QB Chad Henne doesn’t know the Patriots.  He’s about to get introduced.  While Henne has a stronger arm than the injured Chad Pennington, he is not as accurate and other than his first game against the New York Jets, he has struggled to consistently move the ball through the air.  WR Ted Ginn was supposed to thrive under Henne’s deep passes, but his inability to catch the ball knocked him out of the main receiver rotation.  As a result, rookie WR Brian Hartline is the speed threat alongside possession receivers Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo.  As of right now, RB Ricky Williams (15 catches, 185 yards) is the receiver of choice out of the backfield over RB Ronnie Brown (10 catches, 66 yards).  TE Anthony Fasano has struggled this season.  The Patriots have been a real problem for quarterbacks the last two games.  This may be the weakest passing attack the Patriots defense has seen thus far this season.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE

The Miami Wildcat!  The originators of the attack, Miami runs enough variation from the Wildcat to keep defenses on their toes, and it all started against the New England Patriots.  RB Ronnie Brown leads the Wildcat offense, and has 7 TD runs and a 4.3 average.  Very impressive this season has been Williams, who is averaging over 5 yards a carry.  The Patriots have been giving up a lot of rushing yards, especially to teams dedicated to the run.  ADVANTAGE: Dolphins.

DOLPHINS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. PATRIOTS PASS RUSH

The Dolphins offensive line has struggled to protect Henne since he took over at QB.  Henne’s pocket presence is evidently a work in progress still after taking 14 sacks in 5 appearances this season.  The problem is, who is going to put pressure of Henne?  ADVANTAGE: Dolphins.

DOLPHINS PASS RUSH vs. PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE

OLB Porter (2.5 sacks)  might be doing most of the controlspeak, but there are more significant matchups.  OLB Jason Taylor leads the team in sacks with 5.5 and defensive linemen Randy Starks has 3.5 already.  Porter will be rushing the blindside for the most part against Patriots rookie LT Sebastian Vollmer.  Starks will be a key player.  He played well against Jets LG Alan Faneca last week, and now he draws Patriots LG Logan Mankins.  ADVANTAGE: Dolphins.

DOLPHINS RUN DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

The Dolphins have been solid at stopping the run this season, only allowing 3.6 yards per carry.  The Patriots are down to three healthy running backs, and are inconsistent at trying to give RB Laurence Maroney enough of a chance to make a significant impact in games.  ADVANTAGE: Dolphins.

DOLPHINS PASS DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

This is where the Dolphins need to watch themselves.  In the two teams’ second meeting last season in Miami, Matt Cassel, the first-year starter completed 30 of 43 passes for 415 yards and 3 touchdowns to WR Randy Moss while adding one on the ground.  That would be the Dolphins’ last regular season loss.  This season, the Dolphins are without CBs Will Allen (ACL) and Andre Goodman (Broncos).  The Patriots have added a decent QB (Brady).  Last season, the Dolphins made the mistake of single covering Moss; they probably will give rookie CBs Sean Smith and Vontae Davis some help over the top.  The Dolphins have also been vulnerable to the TE in some games this season (Tony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Jeremy Shockey, Dustin Keller last week).  Brady doesn’t look for Ben Watson very much unless he is absolutely killing the coverage.  If the pass rush doesn’t get to Brady, it might get ugly.  And look for the Patriots to sneak their version of Ted Ginn (WR Brandon Tate) onto the field.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

DOLPHINS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS

Ginn was incredible last week, returning two kickoffs for touchdowns in the third quarter.  The Patriots are more likely to cause him to fumble his next kickoff return.  A big part of the Dolphins’ win last week was the help from the defense and special teams scoring three touchdowns.  That won’t happen again against New England.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

DOLPHINS COACHING vs. PATRIOTS COACHING

This is an intriguing matchup because of the fact that Tony Sparano’s coaching staff more or less made their mark by completely catching the Patriots off guard in Week 3 of 2008 with the Wildcat offense.  The Patriots didn’t have an answer for that game, and gave up 28 more points in defeating the Dolphins in the second meeting.  For Belichick, this game represents an opportunity to redeem himself for being outcoached by Sparano last season.  But how long does Sparano and offensive coordinator Dan Henning stick to the Wildcat for this game?  After last week’s struggles offensively versus the Jets (season low 10 first downs, season low 104 yards of offense, season low 52 yards passing, season low 52 yards rushing), how much confidence does the staff have in running the special offense?  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

INTANGIBLES

Joey Porter might say he hates the Patriots.  In reality though, he loves New England!  Porter’s love affair with New England goes all the way back to his Pittsburgh days, where he learned to admire them during critical losses deep in the postseason which may or may not have anything to do with Spygate.  Like I wrote earlier this season (http://www.nfltouchdown.com/would-you-like-to-post-on-the-patriots-bulletin-board/), trash talk and bulletin board material isn’t much in terms of how the game is played, just how the game is spun by the fans.  This game is already important, so Porter’s words reflect only on Porter!  Porter looked good compared to Jets safety Kerry Rhodes last week, but looked pretty bad when the Saints ran the second half score up on them two weeks ago.  Last week, the Dolphins were outplayed.  But they weren’t outcoached.  They have Sparano to thank for that, but the task is not an easy one.  Belichick had a whole two weeks to come up with a way to put some significant distance in between the Patriots and the rest of the AFC East.  The animosity level is the highest it’s been for a Patriots game this season since Week 2 at the Meadowlands.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

BOTTOM LINE

The Patriots might be rusty, having had a bye, Tampa Bay in London, and home against the Titans the last three weeks.  But it is much more likely that the Patriots are going to be sharp and ready to defend their home turf against a confident team that has a lot of pride within their division but is under performing outside of the division.  The Dolphins are holding on to what they believe is still their AFC East championship.  It might get a little harder to hold on if Chad Henne doesn’t help his offense and if Tom Brady cooks another vulnerable secondary.  PREDICTION: Patriots.

Other Week 9 games I’m predicting (10-3 last week, +30 for 2009):

Redskins over Falcons.

Cardinals over Bears.

Ravens over Bengals.

Colts over Texans.

Jaguars over Chiefs.

Buccaneers over Packers.

Saints over Panthers.

Seahawks over Lions.

Giants over Chargers.

Titans over 49ers.

Eagles over Cowboys.

Steelers over Broncos.

-1SKILLZ