The first game in the year 2010 will be the last game of the regular season as the 8-7 Houston Texans host the 10-5 New England Patriots on Sunday, January 3, at Reliant Stadium.  While the Patriots have locked up the AFC East already, this happens to be the biggest game in Houston Texans franchise history.  The Texans still have a chance to make the AFC playoffs, but they do not control their own destiny.  In addition to a win, the Texans need at least two losses from these three teams: the Baltimore Ravens (at Oakland), Denver Broncos (hosting Kansas City), and New York Jets (hosting Cincinnati).  I don’t like the Texans’ chances, but I’m not here to talk about the Texans’ playoff hopes, just their matchup with the Patriots.  Now, the Patriots also have something to play for, as they get the third seed in the playoffs by beating Houston.  However, with both wild card slots wide open, there is not much of a difference between the third seed and the fourth seed in the AFC.  The Patriots will already be at Gillette Stadium.

Last week, the Texans defeated the Miami Dolphins 27-20 in a game both teams needed.  The Texans jumped out to a 27-0 lead and hung on for their third straight win after losing four straight.  The Patriots also won their third straight game last week, defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars 35-7.  The Patriots and Texans are playing each other for only the third time ever.  In 2003, the Patriots defeated the Texans in Houston 23-20 in overtime, and in 2006, the Patriots defeated the Texans in New England by a score of 40-7.  The last time the Patriots played at Reliant Stadium was Super Bowl XXXVIII, when the Patriots defeated the Carolina Panthers.  Of course, Super Bowl nostalgia doesn’t count for much, in case anyone forgot what happened when the Patriots revisited the Louisiana Superdome this season.

PATRIOTS PASSING OFFENSE vs. TEXANS PASSING DEFENSE

Patriots Pro Bowl QB Tom Brady missed 15 games in 2008 with a serious knee injury suffered against the Kansas City Chiefs.  The man who dealt the crushing blow, SS Bernard Pollard, will be starting for the Houston Texans!  Get Brady OUT!  … In all seriousness, the Texans have not been too bad defending the pass this season.  They have only allowed one WR (Chad Ochocinco) and one TE (Dallas Clark) to go over 100 yards receiving all year.  They did have a serious issue in the middle of the season defending TEs, but the Patriots are not too interested in throwing to their TEs Ben Watson or Chris Baker on a consistent basis.  The Texans DID give up 15 receptions last week to Dolphins RBs, and both Patriots RB Kevin Faulk and FB Sammy Morris will be involved in the passing offense.  Texans rookie Pro Bowl SLB Brian Cushing is already one of the best coverage LBs in the NFL, deflecting ten passes and intercepting four this season.  If Brady plays the whole game, he will stick to throwing short to Pro Bowl WR Wes Welker, but best believe that WR Randy Moss, a Pro Bowl snub despite leading the league with 13 TDs, will test the secondary a couple of times.  Pollard and FS John Busing better be ready to cover the entire field in that event.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE vs. TEXANS RUN DEFENSE

The Patriots always seem to be running out of patience with RB Laurence Maroney.  With Sammy Morris and RB Fred Taylor injured, Maroney had nine straight games with at least 13 carries.  While he scored nine TDs in those games, he only had one 100 yard game and he averaged over four yards a carry in only four of those games.  He also lost three fumbles.  So when he lost another fumble on the goal line against the Jaguars, he was benched while Morris, Faulk, and Taylor got the call the rest of the way.  The thing is, Maroney will get another chance.  He has to.  Taylor isn’t all the way back yet, Faulk is the third down back, and Morris also shouldn’t have to take on the bulk of the carries.  All will play, but Maroney needs to be ready and hold on to the football.  The Texans have impact run defenders in Bernard Pollard and Pro Bowl MLB DeMeco Ryans, and they have not allowed a 100 yard runner in 11 of their last 12 games (and Titans RB Chris Johnson runs on everybody).  The Patriots have run the ball 110 times during their three game winning streak (compared to 81 passes) and are coming off of a season-high 197 yards on the ground against the Jaguars defense.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. TEXANS PASS RUSH

The Texans have Pro Bowl RE Mario Williams.  Williams is a legit pass-rushing threat and has eight sacks in 2009, but he only has one multi-sack game this season compared to four in 2008.  The Texans will blitz from all over the field, especially from the strong side.  Brian Cushing has four sacks this season and may keep Patriots TEs Ben Watson and Chris Baker from going out for many passes.  As alluded to earlier, Patriots fans are already aware of what kind of blitzer Bernard Pollard is coming from the strong side.  Texans LE Antonio Smith has 4.5 sacks this season and has the ability to kick inside to allow rookie DE Connor Barwin (3.5 sacks) rush the passer.  The Texans have 15 of their 28 sacks in the last five games.  The Patriots have not allowed a sack in four straight games.  LG Logan Mankins was selected to play in the Pro Bowl, and he leads an interior line that has not allowed a sack by an interior defensive lineman in two months.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS PASS RUSH vs. TEXANS OFFENSIVE LINE

The Texans offensive line has protected QB Matt Schaub well enough this season to allow him to start all 16 games for the first time in his career.  During the Texans’ three game winning streak, Schaub has only been sacked one time while attempting 110 passes.  Texans LT Duane Brown will have to contend with OLB Tully Banta-Cain, who has 9.5 of the Patriots’ 30 sacks on the season, including four of the team’s ten sacks during the Patriots’ three game winning streak.  With LE Ty Warren likely to rest in this game, DE Mike Wright (5 sacks) will try and fight through Texans RT Eric Winston and rookie RG Antoine Caldwell.  ADVANTAGE: Texans.

PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE vs. TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

Patriots Pro Bowl NT Vince Wilfork will most likely sit out of this game to get ready for the postseason.  He also missed last week’s game against the Jaguars, and the Patriots still held RB Maurice Jones-Drew to only 63 yards on 18 carries.  The Texans will give the ball to rookie RB Arian Foster, who had 19 carries and 97 yards rushing against the Dolphins last week.  The Texans are the worst running team in the league, but for the most part, that was with RBs Steve Slaton and Chris Brown carrying the ball behind new starters at LG and RG, Kasey Studdard and Antoine Caldwell.  A good performance by Foster, an undrafted free agent, could lock up a roster spot for next season.  FB Vonta Leach is also a great blocker and he helped spring Foster on his first career TD run last week.  Brown and RB Ryan Moats may also see touches.  This matchup will be intriguing, but running the football isn’t what the Texans do, and the Patriots don’t allow themselves to get beat by another team’s running game.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Patriots.

PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE vs. TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

QB Matt Schaub should be playing this game with an enormous chip on his shoulder.  Despite eight 300 yard passing games (Brady has seven) and eight games with at least a 100 passer rating (Brady has six), Schaub isn’t a Pro Bowler while his counterpart in this game is.  Schaub’s only game against New England was back in 2005, and while filling in for injured starter Michael Vick, he passed for 298 yards (18 of 34) and three TDs, no INTs.  In essence, this was the game that showed the NFL that Schaub could be an NFL starter.  Schaub has been remarkably accurate this season, completing a career high 68.4% of his passes, and this has been without TE Owen Daniels (out since midseason after 40 receptions, 519 yards, 5 TDs) or RB Steve Slaton (out since week 13 after 44 receptions, 417 yards, 4 TDs) for most of the second half of this season.  He has had the services of Pro Bowl WR Andre Johnson all season, and he is an absolute problem.  Johnson has the size, speed, and toughness that make him a tough cover, and he is five catches, 96 yards, and a TD away from 100 catches, 1,600 yards, and ten TDs this season.  In two prior games versus the Patriots, Johnson combined for only 65 yards on nine receptions and a TD, but that was with former Texans QBs Tony Banks and David Carr throwing.  Stopping Johnson is going to be a challenge for the Patriots, one that may show if the pass defense is really better or not.  Schaub also has WRs Kevin Walter (#2 receiver with exceptional size), David Anderson (slot receiver with 38 receptions, no TDs), and Jacoby Jones (a deep threat who isn’t as consistent as Anderson but has 5 TDs).  Without Daniels, Schaub has started to get TE Joel Dreessen more involved in the offense, as he has 10 receptions for 127 yards during the Texans’ three game winning streak.  Before that stretch, Dreessen had never caught multiple passes in consecutive games.  Expect the Texans to spread the field often, sometimes with four WRs, to try and take advantage of their WRs speed and size.  The Texans are the #2 ranked passing offense in the NFL. Against the #1 ranked Colts led by QB Peyton Manning and #3 ranked Saints led by QB Drew Brees, the Patriots gave up a combined 698 yards and nine TDs through the air.  ADVANTAGE: Texans.

PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. TEXANS SPECIAL TEAMS

A year after having his best season, Texans K Kris Brown is having his worst season as a Texan, missing nine FGs.  Two of his misses came at the end of division losses to the Colts and Titans that could have sent those games into overtime.  Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski hasn’t missed a FG in four games, but then again, he’s only attempted three.  Instead, Gostkowski has been kicking PATs.  Patriots P Chris Hanson is averaging only 32.9 yards on nine punts the last three games.  Of course, Hanson doesn’t punt for distance anyway, he punts to prevent significant returns.  Texans PR/KR Jacoby Jones scored a 95 yard kickoff return for a TD earlier this season against the Oakland Raiders, but he hasn’t broken even a 30 yard return in the 11 games since.  He does average 10.4 yards per punt return.  The Texans have been solid in special teams coverage all season and that will continue versus New England.  ADVANTAGE: Texans.

PATRIOTS COACHING vs. TEXANS COACHING

Texans head coach Gary Kubiak was clearly on the hot seat as the Texans lost four division games in a row after starting a franchise best 5-3.  They’ve won three in a row however, and now Kubiak has the Texans in position to at least post the first winning season in franchise history.  Kubiak lost his only matchup with Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, but he has never lost a season finale as Texans coach, and all of those games were at home.  Other than the season-opening loss to the New York Jets, all of the Texans’ losses have been by eight points or less.  Both teams like to start fast, and Belichick has said that Tom Brady will play in this game as opposed to resting.  Kubiak has an advantage in that Belichick still reserves the right to rest key players depending on how the game is going.  And regardless of the playoffs, if Kubiak can defeat the Patriots, he’ll be given at least one more season as the Texans’ head coach.  He has found a way to keep the offense moving despite losing Owen Daniels and the overall ineptness of his team’s running game this season.  There is a lot on the line for Kubiak and his staff, and the players know it.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Texans.

INTANGIBLES

While the Texans are only 3-4 at home this season, the Patriots are only 2-5 on the road, with those wins coming in London versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and at Buffalo against their personal punching bag Bills.  The last time the Patriots lost in Houston was 1988 against the Oilers.  Granted, the Patriots have only played in Houston twice since then.  Reliant Stadium will be more energized in this game than ever before, and that will be a huge advantage for the Texans as they try and get their first winning season and possible playoff berth.  As mentioned earlier, Schaub will be out to prove the Pro Bowl voters wrong.  Of course, the same can be said for Randy Moss.  It is also fair to mention that Pittsburgh Steelers OLB LaMarr Woodley predicted that the Patriots (and Bengals) would lay down for the Texans (and Jets) to prevent the Steelers from making the playoffs.  Not that the Patriots care, but it will just be interesting to see how the game develops.  No comment on whether or not the Steelers laid down against the Bengals, Chiefs, Ravens, Raiders, and Browns during their five-game losing streak.  ADVANTAGE: Texans.

BOTTOM LINE

Whether or not the Patriots play this game straight, the Texans have significant advantages that should lead to a victory.  For one, the Patriots still must prove they can stop an elite QB-WR combo like Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson.  I can see the Texans dropping back to pass about 40-50 times trying to take apart the Patriots’ secondary on the road.  The Texans don’t make a lot of big plays defensively, but they won’t give up many either, and they should find away to score a few TDs and win this game fairly close.  PREDICTION: Texans.

Other Week 17 games I’m predicting (9-7 last week, +64 for 2009):

Colts over Bills.

Panthers over Saints.

Browns over Jaguars.

Eagles over Cowboys.

Bears over Lions.

Steelers over Dolphins.

Vikings over Giants.

49ers over Rams.

Buccaneers over Falcons.

Packers over Cardinals.

Broncos over Chiefs.

Ravens over Raiders.

Chargers over Redskins.

Titans over Seahawks.

Jets over Bengals.

-1SKILLZ