In the last games of December 2009, the 7-7 Jacksonville Jaguars will visit Foxborough, Massachusetts in a must-win situation against the 9-5 New England Patriots.  The Jaguars have lost three of their last four games, most recently to the Indianapolis Colts 35-31 on Thursday Night Football.  After losing two straight games, the Patriots have won two in a row against the Carolina Panthers and last week against the Buffalo Bills, 17-10.  The win over the Bills marked the Patriots’ first road win in the continental United States (their 35-7 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was at Wembley Stadium in London).  This is the Patriots 2009 home finale, where they are undefeated (7-0).

The last time the Jaguars and Patriots met was in the Divisional Round of the 2007 NFL playoffs.  At New England, Tom Brady completed a record 26 of 28 passes for 262 yards and three TDs and the Patriots won 31-20.  The Jaguars have only beaten the Patriots once in franchise history, back in the 1998 Wild Card at Jacksonville, winning 25-10.  The Patriots have won all four regular season matchups and three playoff games against Jacksonville.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE

QB David Garrard represents a unique problem for the Patriots that they have yet to see this season: a mobile quarterback who makes generally good decisions with the football.  In his last meeting against the Patriots, Garrard completed 22 of 33 passes for 278 yards and two TDs to former WR Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford (currently a TE for the Jags).  He threw a game-sealing INT, but played a good game.  His favorite targets on that day were TE Marcedes Lewis and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, but he’ll have to look for WRs Mike Sims-Walker, Torry Holt, and Mike Thomas.  Sims-Walker is 6-2, 208 pounds, and he is the big-play receiver on this team.  He’ll probably draw CB Leigh Bodden.  Holt has yet to score a TD this year, and CB Shawn Springs should cover him.  The biggest weapon for Garrard may prove to be Jones-Drew on screen passes.  The Patriots will give up one or two opportunities for big plays, but they have been sure to tighten up their pass defense, and the Jaguars don’t want to have to pass too much to win.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE

RB Maurice Jones-Drew is the most important cog in the Jaguars offense, and although rookie RB Rashad Jennings will see a few touches, Jones-Drew will be the focal point.  Ideally, he would see about 20 touches against a run defense that may be missing NT Vince Wilfork.  But the dilemma of playing the Patriots these days is that one running back generally does not beat the Patriots, and backs ultimately lose carries as their teams try and attack the Patriots secondary.  Only Ravens RB Ray Rice, Titans RB Chris Johnson, and Jets RB Thomas Jones have ran for 100 yards against the Patriots, and neither of those backs won the game.  Also, Jones-Drew rushed for only 19 yards on 6 carries the last time he faced the Patriots.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

JAGUARS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. PATRIOTS PASS RUSH

The Jaguars have given up 38 sacks this season, and the Patriots sacked Bills QBs six times last week, with OLB Tully Banta-Cain getting three of those sacks in the fourth quarter.  The Jaguars start two rookie tackles, LT Eugene Monroe and RT Eben Britton.  The Jaguars will make sure to account for Banta-Cain, and if the Patriots try and stand up all of their pass rushers again like they did against the Bills last week, watch Garrard and Jones-Drew go on draw plays to calm that down.  ADVANTAGE: Jaguars.

JAGUARS PASS RUSH vs. PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE

I’ve criticized the Patriots pass rush often this season, but there isn’t a more invisible pass rush in the NFL than that of the Jacksonville Jaguars.  In 14 games, they only have 14 sacks.  DT John Henderson leads with three sacks, and the two players that the Jaguars drafted in 2008 specifically to address their inept pass rush, DEs Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, have combined for all of two sacks (both by Harvey).  Brady hasn’t been sacked the last two games and the offensive line is getting healthier, not to mention the Patriots are starting to pass less.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

JAGUARS RUN DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

Former Jacksonville Jaguars RB Fred Taylor, the franchise’s all-time leader in rushing yards and touchdowns, will return from October ankle surgery to face his former team as a New England Patriot.  Before getting injured, Taylor was the Patriots’ most effective runner.  RB Laurence Maroney hasn’t been as good a runner, but he has shouldered most of the load and ran hard, especially around the goal line.  The Jaguars have been decent against the run, giving up only 3.9 yards a carry, and they have about 650 pounds in the middle of their defense with John Henderson and rookie DT Terrance Knighton.  The Patriots will try to run the ball as often as possible with Maroney, Taylor, FB Sammy Morris, and RB Kevin Faulk, and if the Jaguars can stop them, it will put pressure on QB Tom Brady to move the football.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Jaguars.

JAGUARS PASS DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

While the Patriots’ pass offense has been very predictable (deep to WR Randy Moss, short to WR Wes Welker, screen to Kevin Faulk,  ignore TE Ben Watson and whoever else is paying WR), they are playing against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.  CB Rashean Mathis has struggled with a groin injury, and FS Reggie Nelson has been terrible.  Moss and Welker might wind up with 75% of the yards coming from Brady’s passes, but what will the Jaguars do to stop it?  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

JAGUARS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS

The key here is Jaguars K Josh Scobee.  He has struggled badly this season, missing nine of 26 FGs and one PAT.  To give some credit to Scobee, he is 4 of 9 on FGs over 50 yards, but the Jaguars can’t afford to give points away.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

JAGUARS COACHING vs. PATRIOTS COACHING

Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio will be bold and aggressive when he can, and that means going for it on 4th down, going for two points, going for the touchdown instead of the field goal.  He and his team is desperate, as they are playing for their playoff lives, and the games have been close recently.  But he’s never had an answer for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, going 0-4 against the Patriots, including two playoff losses.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

INTANGIBLES

The weather is bad in New England today, so expect a slobberknocker.  While the Jaguars are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Patriots are also trying to lock up a playoff spot.  It is better for the Patriots to get the division clinching win today at home against these Jaguars than it would be next week on the road at Houston against an equally desperate Texans team.  Also, Fred Taylor has been ready to return all month.  He’s going to run hard against his old team.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

BOTTOM LINE

The Patriots absolutely cannot lose this game, and this is not a game they should lose either.  Brady has a good matchup, all of the running backs are healthy, the Jaguars don’t bring a threat as far as a pass rush goes, and the offensive line is healthy.  Garrard and Jones-Drew will play smart and give the Jaguars a chance to win.  But the Patriots will find a way to grind out another win.  PREDICTION: Patriots.

Other Week 16 games I’m predicting (14-2 last week, +62 for 2009):

Titans over Chargers. (another NFL Network loss!)

Falcons over Bills.

Bengals over Chiefs.

Browns over Raiders.

Seahawks over Packers.

Dolphins over Texans.

Saints over Buccaneers.

Giants over Panthers.

Eagles over Broncos.

Steelers over Ravens.

Cardinals over Rams.

49ers over Lions.

Colts over Jets.

Cowboys over Redskins.

Vikings over Bears.

-1SKILLZ