The rivalry of the decade between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts continues tonight on Sunday Night Football at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.  The Patriots come in with a 6-2 record and in first place in the AFC East, holding a two game lead on the New York Jets after defeating the Miami Dolphins 27-17.  The Colts are undefeated at 8-0, having beaten the Houston Texans 23-20 to give them a three game lead in their division.  This is the Patriots’ sixth game of the season against an undefeated team, and the most significant AFC game since their 20-17 overtime loss to the Broncos at Denver.  While this would be their biggest win of the season, a loss (and a Jets win vs. Jacksonville) would make their game at home versus the Jets next week a battle for first place in the division.

This is the seventh consecutive season that the former AFC Eastern division rivals have met in the regular season, in addition to three playoff games.  The Colts have won four of the last five matchups, including last season’s 18-15 victory in Indianapolis that started the Colts’ 17 game regular season winning streak (the only loss in that span was at San Diego, 23-17, in overtime).  The Patriots defeated the Colts 24-20 in 2007 at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, the most recent game that QB Tom Brady started against them.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE vs. COLTS PASS DEFENSE

The Colts have already played a significantly dangerous passing attack this season on Sunday Night Football, that of the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 on the road.  The Colts allowed Warner to pass for 332 yards (30/52), but he threw interceptions to FS Antoine Bethea and CB Marlin Jackson, one of them in the end zone.  The Colts also had to face Texans QB Matt Schaub and his top WR Andre Johnson last week.  Schaub completed 32 of 43 passes for 311 yards, but he also threw two interceptions to rookie CB Jerraud Powers and WLB Clint Session.  The Colts will not have CBs Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden or SS Bob Sanders.  The loss of the Hayden and Jackson force rookie CBs Powers and Jacob Lacey along with Tim Jennings into action against Patriots WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  While the Colts are used to playing without Sanders, his absence in this game hurts for the sole fact that Sanders always seemed to make plays against the Patriots; last season he had the game-clinching INT of QB Matt Cassel on the Patriots’ last possession.  The Colts have only allowed four TD passes this season, the longest being Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin’s 10 yard catch.  Boldin is also the only WR to catch a TD against Indianapolis so far this season.  All that said, the Patriots and QB Tom Brady know to be patient against the Colts pass defense no matter who is playing.  The Colts are built to defend the deep pass, so Brady will likely feed WR Wes Welker and RB Kevin Faulk.  But WR Randy Moss must be respected all over the field, so while Brady will not force him the ball, shots will be taken on the young secondary.  Brady’s last four INTs have come trying to hit the big play to Moss or WR Brandon Tate.  Brady will need to take care of the football, but the pressure is on the Colts’ young secondary to not blow a coverage on Moss’ side of the field.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE vs. COLTS RUN DEFENSE

Last season, the Colts allowed 4.2 yards per carry and 18 rushing TDs.  Much of the blame was accredited to the release of DT Ed Johnson and Sanders missing 10 games.  This season, the Colts released Johnson again early in the season and have been counting on SS Melvin Bullitt more than Sanders anyway.  The Colts still don’t defend the run much better than last season.  They allow 4.3 yards per carry this season, and have allowed Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown and St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson to go over 100 yards.  The Colts have yet to face a team with a respectable passing game that is also willing to run the football.  Both the Cardinals and Texans were down double digits at halftime; the other six opponents were one-dimensional teams that either kept it close but just couldn’t make plays through the air (Jaguars, Dolphins, 49ers), or were on their way to getting blown out anyway (Seahawks, Titans, Rams).  The Cardinals had no balance whatsoever (54 passes, 12 runs), turned the ball over three times, and got blown out.  The Texans had a little more balance (43 passes, 26 runs), but turned the ball over three times, committed 13 penalties, and missed a field goal to end the game.  The Patriots need to hand RB Laurence Maroney the ball.  He is averaging 5.1 yards per carry in the last three games, and in the 24-20 win versus the Colts in 2007 (the last game Maroney and Brady played against the Colts), Maroneyhained 57 yards on 15 carries.  Last season against the Colts, RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk combined for 117 yards rushing on 25 carries, and Green-Ellis’ 10 yard TD run in the third quarter gave the Patriots their only lead of the contest.  The Patriots’ run-pass ratio was close to even in both games, and it should be that way again in this game.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. COLTS PASS RUSH

Interesting fact: Colts LBs have 2.5 sacks so far this season.  Last season, no linebackers or defensive backs recorded sacks for the Colts!  By no means are OLBs Clint Session, Philip Wheeler, and Freddie Keiaho the main pass rush threats for the Colts.  In reality, there are only two players that make up the Colts’ pass rush: DEs Dwight Freeney (9.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (6.5 sacks).  The 235 pound Mathis is coming off of his first Pro Bowl season, and is on pace for a career high in sacks this season as well.  He could give Patriots RT Nick Kaczur fits on the outside.  With LT Matt Light still out injured, rookie LT Sebastian Vollmer will get another start.  He handled Dolphins OLB Joey Porter last week, but Freeney is a much bigger (and quieter and faster) threat this week.  The Patriots have usually blocked Freeney well, as he has never had more than one sack against them and hasn’t had a sack against them since 2004.  Freeney has a sack in every game this season so far, so it would be a huge upset if he doesn’t beat Vollmer to the QB in this one.  Teams have made it their mission to hit Brady as much as possible, but that task has been easier said than done as of late.  It is interesting to note that the Colts were the only team to NOT sack 2008 starter Matt Cassel last season.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Colts.

PATRIOTS PASS RUSH vs. COLTS OFFENSIVE LINE

Year in and year out, Colts QB Peyton Manning is one of the least sacked QBs in the NFL.  He has started every game since 1998, yet has only been sacked 212 times, never more than 29 in one season.  So far this season, he has only taken seven sacks.  Five of those sacks have come in the last two weeks after not allowing a sack in four straight games.  The Colts will be starting a rookie at RG, Kyle DeVan, in between veterans C Jeff Saturday and RT Ryan Diem.  The Patriots just don’t appear to have a player to exploit that matchup.  The Patriots didn’t sack Manning last season, and they probably won’t get to him in this one, although it is worth watching to see who the Patriots bring after Manning.  I’ll be watching for backup SS Patrick Chung.  ADVANTAGE: Colts.

PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE vs. COLTS RUN OFFENSE

As great as the Colts are in protection, they have really struggled to consistently run the football, especially with RB Joseph Addai.  Addai has 5 rushing TDs so far this season, but his yards per carry have dropped every season; from 4.8 as a rookie in 2006 to a career-low 3.4 yards per carry this season.  Ironically, that is what former Colts RB Dominic Rhodes averaged in 2006 sharing carries with the rookie Addai; this season, rookie 1st round pick RB Donald Brown is averaging 4.6 yards per carry.  Addai has struggled to break big runs this season, while Brown and third RB Chad Simpson have a few runs of over 20 yards this season despite Brown missing most of the last three games with injury and Simpson being the third running back in a passing offense.  This will be Brown’s first game since getting injured at St. Louis, and he and Addai should expect plenty of carries.  Addai’s career high in carries in a game is 26 (112 yards) in 2007 against the Patriots; he struggled last season against them, gaining only 32 yards on 17 carries.  The Patriots will have to stay disciplined against the Colts’ stretch play.  They should not have a problem defending the inside run, but they need to be careful about letting Addai and Brown out in space.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE vs. COLTS PASS OFFENSE

This is the best passing attack the Patriots have faced this season since the game at Denver, and Manning has more weapons at his disposal than Broncos QB Kyle Orton, not to mention the tools in which to fully utilize them.  Manning is having his best season since 2004 when he threw for 49 TDs.  He is on pace to pass for over 5,000 yards, and is completing a career high 71% of his passes.  What is most impressive about his play this season is the fact that Addai has been struggling, WR Anthony Gonzalez has missed virtually the entire season with a knee injury, and WR Marvin Harrison isn’t one of Manning’s receivers for the first time in his career.  Manning is using WR Reggie Wayne (59 receptions, 750 yards, 12.8 yards per reception, 6 TDs), TE Dallas Clark (60 receptions, 703 yards, 11.7 yards per reception, 3 TDs), and Addai (34 receptions, 209 yards, 6.1 yards per reception, 2 TDs) more than he has ever used them.  He has also successfully integrated second year WR Pierre Garcon (23 receptions, 353 yards, 15.3 yards per reception, 2 long TDs) and 4th round rookie WR Austin Collie (32 receptions, 356 yards, 11.1 yards per reception, 4 TDs) so well that Harrison and Gonzalez are not significantly missed at all.  Knowing Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots will try to force the speedy but drop-prone Garcon to beat them.  FS Brandon McGowan will have his hands full with Clark, and he will be tested perhaps more in this game than in any previous game.  Rookie CB Darius Butler will also have a bulls-eye on his jersey.  Just like the Patriots need to be disciplined in the run game, they must be even more disciplined in defending Peyton Manning, arguably the most dangerous QB in the NFL.  ADVANTAGE: Colts.

PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. COLTS SPECIAL TEAMS

Colts K Adam Vinatieri is still injured, so former Baltimore Ravens K Matt Stover will fill in.  Stover, 41, is money inside 40 yards, but is shaky from 40-49 and has never been a consistent threat beyond 50.  The Patriots don’t have this problem with K Stephen Gostkowski.  Rookie Colts P Pat McAfee is averaging 43.7 yards per punt, and opponents are averaging less than 7 yards a return.  Welker will most likely be the punt returner with Julian Edelman still injured.  McAfee also serves as the kickoff specialist (good thing since Stover hasn’t kicked off in years), and the Colts are allowing only 21.4 yards per kickoff return.  Patriots KR Brandon Tate will sit this game out, so Matt Slater may return kickoffs along with Kevin Faulk.  Slater has not been allowed to return a kickoff since last season’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in which he fumbled the opening kickoff of the second half.  Patriots P Chris Hanson has struggled getting any kind of distance on his punts, but only 8 punts have been returned on the Patriots, none more than 16 yards (8.6 yards per return).  The Colts are one of the worst teams in the league at returning punts and kickoffs.  PR T.J. Rushing averages only 5.9 yards a punt return, and KR Chad Simpson averages 22.4 yards per kickoff return.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS COACHING vs. COLTS COACHING

This is the first meeting between new Colts head coach Jim Caldwell and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.  Caldwell has been a part of the Colts organization since 2002, first as the quarterbacks coach, then expanding his role to include assistant head coach in 2005, then becoming associate head coach in 2008.  Since Caldwell joined the team, the Colts have won at least 10 games every season and Peyton Manning has been a Pro Bowler every season.  Now as head coach replacing Tony Dungy, Caldwell has the Colts at 8-0 and Manning is leading the #1 passing offense in the league.  Manning was most concerned about the coaching turnover when offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd briefly retired this past offseason and were replaced by assistant head coach/wide receivers coach Clyde Christensen and offensive quality control/assistant offensive line coach Pete Metzelaars (an NFL tight end from 1982-1997).  But Moore and Mudd stayed on board, and the offense is 5th in scoring.  Another change in the Colts’ coaching ranks was the hiring of Larry Coyer as defensive coordinator; the Colts are currently allowing the least points in the league (13.5 per game).  Caldwell is the fourth rookie head coach Belichick will go up against.  He lost to Rex Ryan’s Jets and Josh McDaniels’ Broncos, but he defeated Raheem Morris’ Buccaneers.  Belichick also won his first ever matchups with Falcons head coach Mike Smith and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Patriots.

INTANGIBLES

This will be QB Tom Brady’s first game at Lucas Oil Stadium.  He won his last start at the old RCA Dome in Indianapolis, but lost his previous three games to the Colts.  Excluding the game in London, this will be the Patriots’ first night game since the season opener vs. the Bills on Monday Night Football.  In fact, the last time the Patriots were on Sunday Night Football, it was last season against the Colts.  The Colts have already made two appearances on Sunday Night Football, blowing out the Cardinals and Titans.  Peyton Manning hasn’t lost at home since Week 3 of last season (10 game winning streak).  While a lot has been made of the weak secondaries the Patriots have faced in the last few weeks, it should be noted that the Patriots secondary is by far the best the Colts have faced so far this season.  In fact, this Patriots team is the best team the Colts have faced so far this season; the only teams the Colts have beaten that currently have winning records are the 5-3 Cardinals and the 5-4 Texans.  Of course, the only team the Patriots have beaten currently with a winning record is the 5-3 Atlanta Falcons.  This will be the sixth game the Patriots play in which the opponent comes in undefeated.  The Patriots have not won a game in front of another team’s fans this season; they are 1-2 on the road, with that one win coming in London vs. the Buccaneers - not exactly a hostile environment.  The Patriots will be missing WRs Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman, RBs Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor, and LT Matt Light.  C Dan Koppen is questionable, but C Dan Connolly is a capable backup.  The Colts will be missing WR Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and CB Kelvin Hayden; SS Bob Sanders and CB Marlin Jackson are on injured reserve.  As always it seems like, there is much more pressure on the Patriots than the Colts in this game.  Win or lose, the Colts will still be on top of the AFC.  A Patriots loss could have them fighting for the AFC East lead next week vs. the New York Jets.  ADVANTAGE: Colts.

BOTTOM LINE

In the final season of the Y2K decade, the Patriots and Colts have another important November game.  Because of both team’s relatively young secondaries, the temptation is there for both QBs to come out firing.  But this game will settle down and the winner will be the team with the fewest mistakes on both sides of the ball.  Remember, the 2008 matchup ended with former Patriots TE Dave Thomas committing a crucial 15 yard penalty, turning what would have been 4th and 1 to 4th and 16.  Cassel was intercepted by Sanders on the last play.  The 2007 matchup ended with Brady coming back from down 10 points and Manning losing a fumble on his last chance.  The 2006 matchups were both decided by Tom Brady interceptions.  Brady threw a career high four in the regular season meeting in New England, and after Manning led the Colts back from being down 21-3 in the 2006 AFC Championship game in Indianapolis, Brady was intercepted by Marlin Jackson to give the Colts the 38-34 victory.  I expect the Patriots to come out trying to run in order to set up the big pass play, and though Manning should have better numbers, I believe the Patriots will be balanced enough on offense to steal one on the road and clearly send (another) message to the rest of the league.  PREDICTION: Patriots.

Other Week 10 games I’m predicting (9-4 last week, +35 for 2009):

49ers over Bears.  (NOTE: I should have released the 1SKILLZ Gameplan BEFORE Thursday Night Football, but when I did my predictions back in August, I already had San Francisco beating Chicago in this game.  I did NOT predict Bears QB Jay Cutler throwing five INTs.  Sorry for the inconvenience.)

Panthers over Falcons.

Dolphins over Buccaneers.

Vikings over Lions.

Jets over Jaguars.

Steelers over Bengals.

Rams over Saints.

Titans over Bills.

Redskins over Broncos.

Raiders over Chiefs.

Cardinals over Seahawks.

Cowboys over Packers.

Eagles over Chargers.

Browns over Ravens.

-1SKILLZ