Happy Thanksgiving!  The start of “Holiday Season” is today, a festive time of the year that extends from Thanksgiving until New Year’s Day.  It is also the time of the year when the National Football League playoff picture starts to intensify with almost every game.  On Monday Night Football at the Louisiana Superdome, the 10-0 New Orleans Saints will host the 7-3 New England Patriots which may very well be the last Monday Night Football game of the season to feature two playoff teams.

The Patriots defeated the New York Jets last week 31-14 at home to bring their record in the AFC East to 3-1.  The Patriots forced Jets QB Mark Sanchez into five turnovers and Patriots WR Wes Welker had 15 receptions for 192 yards.  The Saints defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-7, which marks the most points the Saints have ever beaten the Buccaneers by at Tampa Bay.  The Saints forced four turnovers of Buccaneers rookie QB Josh Freeman, Saints QB Drew Brees passed for three TDs, and Saints RBs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell combined for 167 yards rushing on 24 carries, with Bell scoring two TDs.  The last time the Saints and Patriots met was in November 2005 at Gillette Stadium, in the middle of the Saints’ disastrous Hurricane Katrina season.  The Patriots won that game 24-17 despite giving up 343 passing yards to QB Aaron Brooks.  Brady had three TDs and former Patriots FBs Heath Evans and Patrick Pass combined for 127 yards rushing on 29 rushes.  The only coaches and players that are still on the Saints from the 2005 season are assistant strength and conditioning coach Adam Bailey, CB Mike McKenzie (recently re-signed this week), DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant, reserve G Jamar Nesbit, injured LT Jammal Brown, RT Jon Stinchcomb, WR Devery Henderson, and K John Carney (who was with the New York Giants last season).  Needless to say, the 2009 Saints are a completely different team in head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees’ fourth season with the team.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE vs. SAINTS PASS DEFENSE

The Saints might be in some trouble here.  They have performed well against the pass for the most part all season, but not only are they facing Brady, Moss, and Welker, they are also not healthy at the CB position for this game.  CB Tracy Porter will most likely miss another game due to his knee injury, meaning first-round rookie CB Malcolm Jenkins will probably draw another start.  Jenkins played well last weekand recorded his first career INT, but it’s a little different going up against Moss and Welker.  CB Jabari Greer may return from his groin injury this week, but he’ll also have a tough time with Moss and Welker.  CB Randall Gay, a former Patriot, usually comes in on nickel packages.  He started last week, but he left the game with a bad hamstring so he is also hobbled going into this game.  CB Leigh Torrence was also placed on injured reserve this week, so the Saints have signed 30-something CBs Chris McAlister and Mike McKenzie this month, two former standouts who are literally on their last legs due to serious knee injuries.  For the Patriots, the Saints’ banged up secondary resembles a matchup very similar to that of the Indianapolis Colts’ secondary from two weeks ago.  That includes a ball-hawking FS Brady needs to look out for in Darren Sharper.  Sharper has been a difference maker for a defense that leads the NFL in takeaways with 29, recording seven INTs and returning three of them for TDs.  The Saints do have a problem giving up the deep ball, and that was with all of their starters healthy: they allowed a pass play of at least 45 yards in six of their first eight games.  They held Freeman in check last week, but the week before at St. Louis, Rams QB Marc Bulger played his best complete game of the season while completing two TDs to WR Donnie Avery.  Brady should be able to find Moss deep and Welker underneath, and expect to see WRs Julian Edelman and Isaiah Stanback on the field often in an effort to spread out the Saints’ thin secondary.  TE Ben Watson and RB Kevin Faulk will also lineup on the outside in an effort to put players like Welker and Edelman in favorable matchups in the slot.  The key here is for Brady to avoid turnovers.  The Saints have intercepted a pass in every game this season but one (vs. Carolina Panthers QB Jake Delhomme) and only two starting QBs have completed at least 60% of passing attempts vs. the Saints this season (Philadelphia Eagles QB Kevin Kolb and Bulger).  Other than New York Giants QB Eli Manning and Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan, Brady represents the biggest challenge to the Saints secondary this season.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE vs. SAINTS RUN DEFENSE

Patriots RB Laurence Maroney has been on and off ever since FB Sammy Morris went down with a knee injury at Denver.  He has followed up good games with bad games every week.  After a critical goal-line fumble at Indianapolis, Maroney was thought to be in some trouble.  After his first quarter fumble vs. the Jets Sunday, the Patriots’ only turnover in that game, one could justify that Maroney was set for the doghouse.  But then he put some tough runs together and scored two TDs, only the third multi-TD game of his career.  Maroney has also scored in five straight games.  Morris is once again a game-time decision, but if he plays, it may not be good news for Maroney.  Kevin Faulk already gets most of the snaps on passing downs, so Morris would just eat into Maroney’s opportunities.  But whether Morris plays or not, the Saints run defense has been a team weakness, especially without DT Sedrick Ellis.  The Saints have given up over 100 yards on the ground five weeks in a row and give up 4.6 rushing yards per carry on the season, so they are welcoming Ellis’ return this week.  No matter who plays, the Patriots will continue to make sure they keep the offense balanced by running the ball.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. SAINTS PASS RUSH

The Patriots have withstood injuries to LT Matt Light, C Dan Koppen, and RG Stephen Neal in recent weeks and have shown impressive depth.  Even rookie LT Sebastian Vollmer missed parts of the Jets game with a head injury, forcing Mark LeVoir to fill the spot.  The Patriots allowed DE Shaun Ellis to get to the QB twice, forcing Brady to fumble the second time, but played well other than that.  Vollmer has missed practice with what may be a concussion, and Light is still limited by his knee injury from Denver.  Whoever starts at LT between Vollmer, Light, and LeVoir will once again have to deal with an elite pass rusher in DE Will Smith, who has six sacks in the last four games.  RT Nick Kaczur appeared to avoid major injury against the Jets when his leg got rolled up, but he isn’t 100% and may be limited by his ankle injury.  Assuming he starts, he’ll deal with DE Charles Grant, who only has half a sack in the last six games.  If Neal is unable to start again, then Dan Connolly will start at RG.  DT Anthony Hargrove has played well as a penetrator this season, so it will be imperative for the interior of the Patriots offensive line to play well.  The Saints also will bring the blitz from time to time, especially with SS Roman Harper.  Brady has been sacked more than twice only once this season (vs. Baltimore).  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS PASS RUSH vs. SAINTS OFFENSIVE LINE

After last week’s performance vs. the Jets, I am ready to recognize Patriots OLB Tully Banta-Cain as a legit pass-rushing threat on this defense.  He simply works until he gets to the QB, and he has shown that he is more effective than anybody else on the team doing that.  Unfortunately, that’ll be a problem against the Saints.  Even with LTs Jermon Bushrod and Zach Strief replacing injured Pro Bowl LT Jammal Brown this season, Brees has only been sacked 13 times in ten games.  That is as many sacks as Brees took all of last season, but other than their performance in Miami where Brees was sacked five times, the offensive line is still playing well by normal standards.  Since that game, Brees has only been sacked four times, and he didn’t get sacked once last week at Tampa Bay.  The Saints have allowed only three sacks in five home games this season.  ADVANTAGE: Saints.

PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE vs. SAINTS RUN OFFENSE

It’s a little hard to believe, but the Saints have actually ran the ball four more times this season than they have passed (not including sacks and scrambles).  Saints RBs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell have been splitting the carries this season, and so far they have combined for 220 attempts, 1,098 yards, and nine TDs.  Combine that with Reggie Bush finally having more positive runs than negative runs (5 yards per carry, 5 TDs), and you can see how the Saints are dangerous even when Brees isn’t throwing.  They are facing a Patriots team that gives up yards per carry (4.4) but keeps teams from getting into an offensive rhythm running the ball since the Patriots are usually holding onto the ball themselves (New England leads the league in time of possession).  The Patriots have also allowed only three rushing TDs this season, all of them in the red zone.  Also, Bush missed last week’s game with a knee injury.  He should be ready for this game, but the Saints will have to be efficient in the run game against a team that rarely allows themselves to be beaten by running backs.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE vs. SAINTS PASS OFFENSE

Brees has been incredibly efficient this season, completing 68.1% of his passes, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, and throwing 22 TDs so far this season.  It shouldn’t be a coincidence that the active presence of a running game has made Brees a more dangerous QB and has made the Saints an even more potent offense than the previous three seasons Brees and head coach Sean Payton have been together in New Orleans.  Against the Patriots, Brees may have to pass it more than he has all season.  When the Broncos beat the Patriots in OT, QB Kyle Orton had to attempt a season-high 48 passes as the Broncos passed twice as many times as they ran.  When the Colts came back to beat the Patriots two weeks ago, QB Peyton Manning had to attempt 44 passes and the Colts ran only 18 times.  Brees’ season high in attempts this season is 38 at Miami, a game in which the Saints were down 24-3.  Last season, Brees attempted at least 40 passes eight times.  The Saints’ record in those games was 2-6, and Brees’ TD:INT ratio was 17:11.  In the other eight games where Brees attempted less than 40 passes last season, the Saints’ record was 6-2 and Brees’ TD: INT ratio was 17:6.  The Patriots will focus much of their attention on WR Marques Colston, who has a Brandon Marshall-like size advantage on the Patriots’ secondary.  With FS Brandon McGowan in the starting lineup, the Patriots have been good at covering TEs all season, although Jeremy Shockey does present another challenge.  The Buccaneers focused on stopping Shockey last week, holding him to 17 total yards on two receptions, but former Patriots TE David Thomas had 66 yards on four receptions.  In the last four games, Thomas has 11 receptions for 138 yards and a TD; Thomas had only 10 receptions for 102 yards from 2006-2007 in New England.  WR Lance Moore has been dealing with an ankle sprain and may not be ready Monday night, but WRs Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem have been on the field most of the season anyway.  Meachem only has eight receptions in the last three games, but four of them have been TDs.  Henderson’s speed makes him another big play threat.  CBs Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite have settled into starting roles for New England, while rookie CB Darius Butler is the nickel back - veteran CB Shawn Springs has been a healthy scratch the last two weeks and may be inactive again Monday night.  Getting Bush back will make things even more interesting as far as how the Patriots defend Brees.  A notable fact: as a member of the San Diego Chargers, Brees was 2-0 vs. New England.  ADVANTAGE: Saints.

PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. SAINTS SPECIAL TEAMS

I’m worried about Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski.  After missing four kicks all of last season in 40 attempts, he missed his fourth FG of the season vs. the Jets.  Gostkowski is 20/24 on FGs this season, but only 2/5 from 40-49 yards; he was 9/11 on FGs from 40-49 yards in 2008.  Saints K John Carney is 12/15 on FGs and has held off K Garrett Hartley.  But he has missed two PATs this season, and two of his missed FGs were from under 40 yards.  Carney also has limited range, but playing indoors helps.  After having his best game of the season at Indianapolis, Patriots P Chris Hanson had a punt blocked and returned for a TD against the Jets.  He is also averaging under 40 yards a punt on the season, but kicking indoors will help him as well.  Reggie Bush usually returns punts, but not only is he coming back from injury, he has been ineffective all season.  A year after returning three punts for TDs, Bush is averaging an abysmal 3.8 yards per return, second-worst in the league to Raiders PR Johnnie Lee Higgins (who, perhaps not coincidentally, also returned three punts for TDs in 2008).  With Pierre Thomas taking over starting RB duties, WR Courtney Roby has all the KR duties to himself this season, and he has been outstanding.  Roby averages 28.8 yards a return, and had a clutch 97-yard TD at St. Louis.  He’ll have to deal with the fact that Gostkowski often kicks off too deep to return; he has 19 touchbacks, second in the NFL.  Patriots WR Julian Edelman is back healthy now, so he will return kickoffs.  Saints rookie P Thomas Morstead, a 5th round pick, was selected as the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week for his punting and kicking off at Tampa Bay.  KR Edelman and PR Welker will have to deal with his deep kickoffs and high punts Monday night.  The Patriots’ special teams had perhaps their worst performance of the season as an entire unit vs. the Jets and in a closer game on the road, they need to bounce back.  ADVANTAGE: Saints.

PATRIOTS COACHING vs. SAINTS COACHING

Saints head coach Sean Payton is 8-7 vs. AFC teams; this will be his first game against Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.  The Saints have beaten the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins already this season, but all of those games had yet to be decided entering the fourth quarter (10-7 lead at Buffalo, 17-10 lead vs. Jets, down 34-24 at Miami).  Of course, the Saints outscored those three AFC East opponents 46-0 in the fourth quarter.  Payton and his coaching staff has made sure the Saints finish games late; the only 4th quarter the Saints have lost this season was against the Giants, and they were up 41-17 entering the final quarter.  Excluding Super Bowl XLII vs. the Giants, Belichick is on a 17-game winning streak vs. the NFC, with the last loss coming at Carolina 27-17 in September 2005.  All three Patriots losses have been on the road this season, and the Patriots have blown leads in all three games (9-3 halftime lead at New York Jets, 17-7 halftime lead at Denver, 31-14 4th quarter lead at Indianapolis).  Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will have to come up with a way to force the Patriots into turnovers; while the Saints have forced a turnover in every game this season and at least three in seven games, the Patriots have not turned the ball over more than twice all season.  But perhaps the biggest coaching decision will be up to Bill Belichick:  On fourth down with the Patriots leading by less than a TD in the fourth quarter and no timeouts remaining, would Belichick respect Drew Brees the same way he respects Peyton Manning?  Unfair question or not, you know that scenario could present itself again.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Saints.

INTANGIBLES

The Saints are playing their biggest game of the season since New Orleans native Eli Manning bought his 4-0 New York Giants to the Louisiana Superdome.  The Saints were up for that game and smoked the Giants.  They also went into Philadelphia and defeated the Eagles 48-22.  Those are the only two games the Saints have played against teams with winning records entering Thanksgiving, but other than their 38-7 blowout of Tampa Bay, those are also the biggest wins of the season for the Saints.  They also defeated the 5-5 Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football earlier this season.  The Patriots’ seven wins have all come against teams that did not have a winning record entering Thanksgiving.  While the Saints have an opportunity to beat the Patriots for the first time at home in franchise history, the Patriots are once again under pressure to not only win a big game, but stay one step ahead in the AFC East.  If the Patriots lose to the Saints and the Dolphins win at Buffalo Sunday, then the Dolphins would only be a game back of the Patriots when they meet next week in Miami.  The Saints are dealing with injuries.  RB Reggie Bush, WR Lance Moore, DT Sedrick Ellis, CB Jabari Greer, and CB Randall Gay are all coming back from injuries and/or trying to play injured, while CB Tracy Porter will miss the game.  All of the injuries at cornerback may force rookie CB Malcolm Jenkins and recently signed veteran CBs Chris McAlister and Mike McKenzie into action.  On the Patriots side of the ball though, they have been dealing with injuries along the offensive line, which could be critical given the fact that the Louisiana Superdome can get very loud.  This game will have an atmosphere similar to the December 2, 1985 Monday Night Football game at Miami between the 8-4 Dolphins and the 12-0 Chicago Bears.  The Bears gave up a season high 38 points to the Dolphins, a team that went undefeated in 1972, and lost their only game of that season.  The Patriots are the only team in NFL history to go 16-0 in the regular season, and now face a team looking to do the same with a similarly potent offense in these Saints. The last time the Patriots were in the Louisiana Superdome was their 24-17 Super Bowl XXXVI victory vs. the St. Louis Rams in February 2002.  The Patriots players that still remain from that Super Bowl team are QB Tom Brady, RB Kevin Faulk (who went to college at LSU), and LT Matt Light.  It is also important to note that the Saints only hold a one game advantage in the NFC on the 9-1 Minnesota Vikings entering Thanksgiving.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Saints.

BOTTOM LINE

Once again, the Patriots draw the game of the week, this time on Monday Night Football against the New Orleans Saints.  I expect the Patriots to go up early, with Brady hitting Moss for a couple of big plays that lead to TDs.  But I also expect Brees to keep it close enough to take a lead in the second half.  From there, the Saints will find a way to finish the game, perhaps with the aid of an untimely Patriots turnover.  The Saints have been incredible at finding ways to win, and they might just come up with a memorable way to get to 11-0, at the Patriots’ expense.  PREDICTION: Saints.

Other Week 12 games I’m predicting (8-8 last week, +34 for 2009):

Packers over Lions.

Cowboys over Raiders.

Giants over Broncos.

Falcons over Buccaneers.

Bills over Dolphins.

Bengals over Browns.

Colts over Texans.

Vikings over Bears.

Panthers over Jets.

Eagles over Redskins.

Rams over Seahawks.

Titans over Cardinals.

Chargers over Chiefs.

49ers over Jaguars.

Steelers over Ravens.

-1SKILLZ