The rematch no one was anticipating is here!  The 9-8 AFC West Champs Denver Broncos, the #4 seed in the AFC, are on the road at Gillette Stadium to face the #1 AFC seed, the AFC East Champ New England Patriots today, January 14, 2012, in Foxbourough, MA.  In this divisional playoff, the winner goes to the AFC Championship.  Either the game will be in New England, or the stage will be set in Houston or Baltimore to continue what has been an improbable run for the Broncos.

The Broncos are coming off an absolute thrilling OT Wild Card weekend victory against the 12-win Pittsburgh Steelers in Denver, capped after 11 seconds when Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas took a slant from QB Tim Tebow 80 yards to end the game 29-23.  The Patriots, like last year, are coming off a first round bye earned by the strength of their eight game winning streak to end the regular season; one of those wins came in Denver when the Patriots beat the Broncos 41-23 a month ago.  The Patriots haven’t been on the road since.  The Patriots’ last game was on New Year’s Day against the Buffalo Bills, a game in which they were down 21-0 at the end of the first quarter but won 49-21, getting 246 yards and 3 TDs from TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.  Of course, the Patriots defeated the Giants in 2007, Ravens in 2009, and Jets in 2010 during the regular season only to lose decisively to them later in the postseason.  And as Pittsburgh found out, it’s not a good idea to underestimate these Broncos under any circumstances.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE

The Broncos suffered a significant loss when WR Eric Decker injured his knee against the Steelers.  Decker, a 6’3″, 220 pound athlete, was the Broncos #1 WR for most of the season.  He’ll be replaced by much smaller WRs Eddie Royal (5’10″, 180) and Matt Willis (6’0″, 190).  Royal had a 30-yard TD against the Steelers, but the only other game in which he had over 30 yards all season was a blowout against the Lions in which he had 41 yards receiving on six catches.  Other than that game, Royal had only 63 yards receiving with Tebow at QB all season.  If Tebow is going to be successful in the air, it’s because he’ll be throwing deep to Demaryius Thomas, the only big talented receiver Tebow has left.  Thomas torched the Steelers (RE: Ike Taylor) for 204 yards, 124 of them coming in regulation on only 3 catches.  Thomas had 116 yards on 7 catches against the Patriots.  Thomas can get deep and at 6’3″, 230 pounds, it will be tough for the Patriots to single cover him.  But rolling coverage to Thomas’ side will force Tebow to look elsewhere or force the ball, two things that Tebow would prefer not to do.  Tebow beat the Steelers with the big ball.  The Patriots will not be beaten the same way.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE

The Broncos’ best chance to move the ball against the Patriots remains the option-based running attack, and in the first quarter, the Broncos racked up 167 rushing yards and rushing TDs by Tebow and backup RB Lance Ball against the Patriots last month.  Everything changed in the second quarter though, as the Broncos lost the ball (fumbles by Tebow and Ball), RB Willis McGahee (injury), and the lead (Patriots scored the last 20 points of the second quarter).  The Broncos finished the game with 252 rushing yards, but the lost control of the game was a missed opportunity.  McGahee is healthy, and the Broncos hope that he has already turned in his critical error of the postseason already (he lost a fourth quarter fumble that allowed the Steelers to tie the game).  Tebow is still a punishing and skilled runner who is comfortable reading the running lanes, and he led the Broncos in rushing against New England with 93 yards and 2 TDs on 12 rushes last month.  The Patriots found a way to stop the bleeding against the Broncos run game after the first quarter, allowing “only” 85 yards in the final three quarters.  The Patriots still have Pro Bowl DT Vince Wilfork and OLB Jerod Mayo, and now they get back ILB Brandon Spikes (a college teammate of Tebow) and SS Patrick Chung.  As long as the Patriots aren’t running away with the lead (no pun intended), the Broncos will ground and pound.  Just not at the rate they did to build their lead against the Patriots last time.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Broncos.

BRONCOS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. PATRIOTS PASS RUSH

The Broncos lost perhaps their best offensive linemen when RG Chris Kuper was injured in Kansas City two weeks ago.  Former Patriot OL Russ Hochstein replaces him, and the Broncos need to be ready to pick up the Patriots blitz.  Tebow went down four times last month against the Patriots, and the Broncos do not have a QB with the best pocket presence.  The Patriots have racked up 13 sacks in the last four games of the season, using nine players to get to the QB in that span.  None of those nine are Spikes or Chung, effective blitzers up the middle and on the edge when given the chance.  This is a fairly young group of players along Denver’s offensive line, as LT Ryan Clady (fourth season), LG Zane Beadles (second season), C J.D. Walton (second season), and RT Orlando Franklin (rookie) have never played a road playoff game before tonight.  The Patriots’ best pressure player is DE Mark Anderson, who had two sacks and a forced/recovered fumble against the Broncos last month.  The Broncos held the Steelers without a sack on Sunday, but the Patriots will be coming after Tebow instead of letting him get comfortable to load up deep.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

BRONCOS PASS RUSH vs. PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE

The Broncos only got to the quarterback twice last month against the Patriots, and both came on blitzes that didn’t get picked up.  One resulted in a sack by rookie SS Quinton Carter, the other resulted in an absolute de-cleater of Brady by Pro Bowl DE Elvis Dumervil.  Other than that, the Broncos were handled up front while the Patriots put up their first 40+ point performance of the season.  Pro Bowl rookie SLB Von Miller was already dealing with a thumb injury, and now Dumervil isn’t 100%.  The Broncos will need to mix up their blitzes in hoping that they can get to the quarterback more than a couple of times, but blitzing excessively against the Patriots is often discouraged (see: Patriots vs. Ryan brothers) and the Patriots are expected to lineup their best offensive line all season with tentatively healthy returns of LT Matt Light, LG Logan Mankins (Pro Bowl), and RT Sebastian Vollmer joining Pro Bowl RG Brian Waters and C Dan Connolly.  The Broncos had five sacks against the Steelers, two by LE Robert Ayers.  But Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger’s mobility was limited by injury, not to mention his penchant for holding on to the ball too long behind a poor pass protecting offensive line.  Brady might take a couple of sacks, but he has a better chance of diagnosing the Broncos pass rush a little faster and with better protection.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Patriots.

BRONCOS RUN DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

The Patriots run defense was beaten up last month, but so was the Broncos run defense.  In fact, the Broncos gave up one of the Patriots’ best running performances all season last month.  Rookie RB Stevan Ridley emerged as the Patriots’ best running threat against the Broncos with 65 yards on 11 carries, RB Danny Woodhead added 40 yards and his only TD of the season on 7 rushes, and Brady and RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis added goal line TDs as well.  The Broncos also allowed a backup RB (Steelers RB Isaac Redman) to go for 121 yards on 17 carries on Sunday.  The Patriots also added former Dolphins short-yardage specialist FB Lousaka Polite to the roster, and if active, he could help keep drives going.  Ridley will get some carries, and Woodhead’s role in the hurry-up offense ensures that the Patriots won’t worry about either of their runners getting overworked.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

BRONCOS PASS DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

If Brady is sharp, the Broncos are in trouble.  The Broncos held Pro Bowl WR Wes Welker and Pro Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski relatively in check the first game around, and WR Deion Branch didn’t play.  But WR Chad Ochocinco caught his only TD of the season against the Broncos in the first quarter, and TE Aaron Hernandez was a nightmare for the overmatched young Broncos safeties (rookies Quinton Carter and Rahim Moore and third-year FS David Bruton don’t stand a chance) as he had 129 yards on 8 catches, including a short TD.  Pro Bowl CB Champ Bailey had one of the biggest plays in the 2005 Divisional playoff game won by Denver when he intercepted Brady and returned it 99 yards.  Bailey is still a premier cover corner, but he’s the only one.  This is arguably the strongest Patriots passing offense entering the playoffs ever.  Brady was hurting going into Super Bowl XLII, Brady tore his ACL in 2008 and the Patriots missed the playoffs, Welker tore his ACL in Houston a week before the 2009 playoffs, and TE Aaron Hernandez was hurting going into last year’s playoffs.  Hernandez, Gronkowski, Welker, and Brady are relatively healthy going into this game.  The Broncos’ only chance is to hold on to some interceptions.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

BRONCOS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS

Special teams played a big role in the Broncos losing momentum against the Patriots last month.  Former Patriots LS Lonie Paxton botched an extra point snap in the last game after the Broncos scored first, while PR Quan Cosby fumbled a punt right before halftime that the Patriots recovered in time to kick a FG to end the first half.  Cosby has since been waived, and Paxton won’t play due to personal reasons.  Eddie Royal will return punts from Patriots P Zoltan Mesko, meaning Royal is more likely to mishandle a punt than he is to return it for a TD.  Former Chargers LS David Binn, a 39-year old former Pro Bowler and flame of Pamela Anderson, was signed just yesterday to be the Broncos LS.  Remember Trey Junkin?  Junkin was a LS in the NFL from 1983-2001.  In January 2003, the New York Giants bought the 41-year old Junkin out of retirement to be the long snapper for their playoff game in San Francisco.  With the game on the line, Junkin’s bad snap led to a controversial finish that saw the 49ers defeat the Giants.  Just something to keep in mind when Broncos K Matt Prater has a chance to kick a critical field goal in New England tonight.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

BRONCOS COACHING vs. PATRIOTS COACHING

I was much more critical of Broncos head coach John Fox than I was of Tim Tebow for the way the Broncos season ended.  I felt like the Broncos were still preparing their QB to not lose games instead of focusing on giving the team the best chance to win.  Tebow made some big throws against the Steelers, so he and Fox are partially absolved for their three-game losing streak to end the season.  That said, I’m still not impressed with the Broncos’ coaching lately, and I’d like to see how they prepare their defense to defend Brady and his targets.  The Patriots might have been looking at a challenging distraction with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien accepting the head coaching position at Pennsylvania State University, but they come on top of the head games operation by bringing in Josh McDaniels as an offensive assistant and successor to O’Brien as offensive coordinator.  McDaniels, as you may recall, was the Patriots offensive coordinator from 2006-2008, Broncos head coach with personnel power from 2009-2010, and Rams offensive coordinator this season.  Yes, Denver, you are allowed to hire free agent coaches and sign players off the street in the postseason that contributed to another team during the regular season!  This is a great move by New England (not to mention one that is not unprecedented) and no one would care nearly as much about if the Broncos lost to Pittsburgh Sunday.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

INTANGIBLES

Well, this has been the category that people (RE: “experts”, “passer purists”, Tebow bashers) don’t realize can play a role in a game as emotional and momentous as football.  For starters, this game is in New England, not Denver.  The Patriots do not represent the perfect storm of “everything that can possibly go wrong” that hit the Steelers once they found out they had to go to Denver.  The Mile High City eliminated FS Ryan Clark from the Steelers lineup, which affected their secondary and evidently caused their coaching staff to suffer from multiple brain cramps.  Not to mention, the Steelers now know how the Patriots felt in 2009-2010 when they lost a significant offensive player to an ACL injury in Week 17 right before the playoffs.  If the Steelers were a minus-roster going into their game at Denver, the Patriots have a “plus-roster” with Chung, Spikes, Vollmer, Light, and Mankins ready to play.  The Broncos are missing three players who could affect the offense, defense, and special teams against the Patriots in WR Eric Decker, SS Brian Dawkins, and LS Lonie Paxton.  Then there’s the Josh McDaniels factor as a built-in excuse for Tebow to not go John 3:16 in this game.  But to flip things… these are the Broncos.  Of course they can win.  Especially considering my earlier fact about how the first playoff loss by the Belichick/Brady Patriots came six years ago to these Broncos, and how the Patriots are 0-3 in the playoffs since winning the AFC Championship in January 2008.  They were favored to beat the Giants in the Super Bowl, especially after a season ending win against them in 2007.  They lost.  They were favored to beat the Ravens in the Wild Card in January 2010, especially after beating them during the 2009 season.  They lost.  They were favored to beat the Jets last year in the AFC Divisional, especially after beating them 45-3 only six weeks earlier.  They lost.  They are favored to beat the Broncos at home tonight, especially after beating them in Denver 41-23 a month ago.  Hmm.  ADVANTAGE: Broncos.

BOTTOM LINE

All good things must end.  And some bad things too.  If the Broncos were going to beat the Patriots, last month would have been the time, right?  Alas, the Broncos are coming off an emotional win that could have been marked by Champ Bailey sounding like Bart Scott if he wanted to.  Yes, those Jets “couldn’t wait” for the next game at Pittsburgh, but they were slowed by their emotions.  The same thing happened with last year’s Seattle Seahawks, winning a big home playoff game against a defending conference champion, only to be blasted on the road the following week at Chicago.  These Broncos are flying into Foxborough on the same Mile High of emotion, and if they’re not careful (and Brady is), they could be down big due to a Patriots offense that has to be tired of getting off to slow starts both recently and in the last three postseason games.  I expect a valiant effort from Tebow, McGahee, Bailey, Von Miller, and Dumervil.  But without some key turnovers, the Broncos defense, unlike that of the 2007 Giants, 2009 Ravens, and 2010 Jets, doesn’t stand a chance against the Patriots tonight.  PREDICTION: Patriots.

Other Divisional Playoff games I’m predicting: (3-1 last week, +60 in 2011 regular season, +2 in 2011 playoffs):

Saints over 49ers (I just can’t see Alex Smith putting up more points than Drew Brees, Saints can defend some too.)

Ravens over Texans (These teams are much more evenly matched than anyone’s giving Houston credit for, but Baltimore is finally hosting a playoff game; Houston might want to shake their butterflies before kickoff.)

Packers over Giants (Eli Manning might torch the Packers, but I think he’s more likely to commit a critical error than Aaron Rodgers is.)

-1SKILLZ