When the Saints Have the Ball.……The key will be Dwight Freeney’s ankle. If the speed-rushing demon is healthy enough to consistently turn the corner, the Colts will have a huge mismatch in their favor in passing situations. Saints left tackle Jermon Bushrod does not have the quickness nor footwork to handle Freeney.

Bushrod’s struggles have been the Achilles heal for the Saints offense all season. Against Minnesota, New Orleans often kept an extra tight end or back in to help chip on Jared Allen. This gave Drew Brees a clean pocket, but it also eliminated some of the super spread formations that make Sean Payton’s offense explosive. Simply put, the Saints are a different team when they can’t fully spread the field.

They’ll almost have no choice but to utilize a six-and perhaps even seven-man offensive line in pass protection. After all, as big a handful as Freeney will be for Bushrod, speedy Robert Mathis could pose even greater problems for plodding right tackle Jon Stinchcomb. Expect New Orleans to run the ball more than usual, particularly between the tackles. The Colts defense is too fast to attack on the edges, so Reggie Bush is unlikely to be a big factor in this game.

When the Colts Have the Ball……It’s all about keeping Peyton Manning clean. The Saints know they don’t have enough talent in the front seven to simply line up and stop teams, so defensive coordinator Gregg Williams manufactures pressure with exotic blitzes. Sacks are nice, but the goal of these blitzes will be to simply get hits on Manning. (Manning simply doesn’t take many sacks.) The Saints won the NFC Championship in large part because they punished Brett Favre. They didn’t register any sacks, but by giving a pounding to the passer, they forced turnovers and made Minnesota’s passing attack sloppy down the stretch.

The Colts have been able to protect Manning all season. Dallas Clark is a big reason why. He is a reliable and versatile outlet on hot reads. Don’t be surprised if Clark catches 10 passes Sunday.

Prediction

Colts have been here before. Saints have emotion on their side, but in a Super Bowl, emotion is overrated (obviously, both teams are amped up). New Orleans’s only chance at success on defense is to out-scheme the Colts. When’s the last time any team actually did that?

Indy 31, New Orleans 21