Change? You call this change? Ha! This ain’t change! Change is going from a Republican white president to a Democratic black one. Change is landline phones to cell phones. Or cell phones to PDA’s. It’s going from fat 1980s Oprah to sleek 2000s Oprah (minus this past year, apparently). Or, on the flip side, going from 1980s Kirstie Alley to current day Kirstie Alley. Now that’s change.

What’s happening with the Indianapolis Colts is not change. At most, it’s some form of multifaceted tweak. Like a Peyton Manning audible, if you will. Now, granted, for perhaps 31 other NFL teams, replacing a Hall of Fame-worthy head coach like Tony Dungy with a former quarterbacks coach who has zero head coaching experience like Jim Caldwell would constitute change. And so would temporarily replacing your offensive coordinator (Tom Moore on hold, Clyde Christensen filling in), defensive coordinator (goodbye Ron Meeks, hello Larry Coyer) and special teams coordinator (Russ Purnell out, Ray Rychelski in). But not for this franchise. Not as long as Jim Irsay is the owner, Bill Polian the president and Peyton Manning the quarterback.

The Colts are still operating within the same general premise of their unshakable system. It’s a system that first focuses on having the right skill position players offensively––something Polian aims to do with first-round investments (see Manning, running back Joseph Addai, wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez and tight end Dallas Clark). Polian has never once in his 12-year tenure whiffed on a first-round offensive player. (Fantasy geeks take note, first-round rookie running back Donald Brown could be a sleeper!) Part of this is due to the fact that his first one in ’98, the aforementioned non-Ryan Leaf quarterback, was a bull’s-eye.

As long as Manning is under center, the Colts offense will be proficient. Of course, there’s still areas to improve in ’09. As Irsay said over the offseason, “Our ability to rush the football was completely unacceptable last year. It was more of a miracle that we were able to disguise the problem so much and go so far and do so much with it being such a problem.” He’s exactly right. The Colts run offense ranked 31^st and averaged a wretched 3.4 yards per carry. This offense needs balance (if for no other reason than a strong ground game fosters the lethal play action pass). The selection of Brown, a highly productive, versatile all-around tailback from Connecticut, should provide the necessary rushing boost (as well as a fertile trickle-down effect).

We can elaborate in greater detail later––the general point is that the Colts will have a Super Bowl-caliber offense again in 2009. This is especially true considering that Tom Moore, while technically no longer the offensive coordinator, will return in an influential consultant role (he had to retire, on paper, in order to protect his pension). Same goes for venerated offensive line coach Howard Mudd.

Defensively, Indy will present a slightly different look under Larry Coyer, though not one glaring enough to make spectators squint. Coyer will spice up Dungy’s vanilla Tampa Two scheme with a few more blitzes and a greater emphasis on stopping the run. Polian supported these changes by drafting a 300-pound defensive tackle for the first time in his tenure. In fact, he did it twice: Fili Moala in Round Two and Terrance Taylor in Round Four. But in the big picture these are still minor changes; scrutinizing them is not unlike studying the modicum of difference between the Colts’ throwback uniforms and current digs. Overall, this will still be a speedy, finesse zone defense.

So given that change has not really hit the Colts, it’s fair to ask the same questions that have been asked for years. Like, is this team tough enough to win in January? Can the offense handle the wrath of physical 3-4 defenses like those found in Pittsburgh, San Diego, Baltimore, New England and New York? Can the defense stop the run when it counts?

As most remember, the answer to all these questions in 2006 was Yes. But that leads to another question: was Indy’s Super Bowl title merely a case of the stars aligning; or was it only the first piece of hardware for one of this era’s elite organizations? For the longest time, a question like this would have been decided by your opinion of Number 18. But the Lombardi trophy and NFL record-tying three MVP awards have cemented the 33-year-old’s Canton-bound legacy. So now, we apply the skeptical questions to the men blocking for Number 18.

Offense

The questions actually don’t surround the men blocking for Number 18 so much as they do for the men blocking for Numbers 29 and 31. Of course they’re the same blockers, but Number 18 is so shrewd in the pocket that he can still move the ball despite insufficient protection. Number 29 (running back Joseph Addai), and Number 31 (first-round rookie Donald Brown), however, cannot. Addai struggled behind a banged up, underdeveloped offensive line in 2008 (he rushed for only 544 yards rushing on the season). His own bumps and bruises were also a factor. Brown was brought in to help the fourth-year pro stay fresh and regain his nimble footwork and cunning sense of timing. The plan is for Brown to split reps with Addai, something that should be easy considering both men are inside/outside runners and very adept in the passing game.

H-backs Gijon Robinson and Jacob Tamme, plus second-string rookie Tom Santi, will provide extra miscellaneous blocking out of Indy’s frequent ace formations. But the rushing attack ultimately hinges on the output of the five hogs up front: left tackle Tony Ugoh, left guard Charlie Johnson, center Jeff Saturday, right guard Mike Pollak and right tackle Ryan Diem.

Of the group, Saturday’s leadership and presnap chemistry with Manning make him the most valuable, while the 25-year-old Ugoh’s athleticism and search for consistency make him the most intriguing. But the most important player is Pollak. The second-rounder’s struggles as a rookie almost killed this team last season. Not only was Pollak overpowered to the point of his technique being futile, but he was a hindrance to stalwart right tackle Ryan Diem. Just look at the numbers: the Colts two leading rushers last season, Addai and Dominic Rhodes (now a Bill), averaged 4.6 yards per carry when running left and just 2.8 yards per carry running right.

This isn’t to say that left guard Charlie Johnson is all that hot. The long-time tackle who doesn’t maintain blocks well is better served as a utility backup. That’s what he’ll be if once-rising star Ryan Lilja can rebound from three ’08 knee operations. If Lilja stagnates and Johnson struggles, Indianapolis could look to Jamey Richard. The sixth-rounder of a year ago plays tall and has shoddy mechanics, but experience might correct those blemishes. It will be interesting to see where this line is come August, given that its revered instructor, Howard Mudd, was away from the organization most of the offseason.

As for the Colts’ passing game….as long as it is Peyton Manning running the show and not Jim Sorgi, all is well. We’re yet to mention the departure of franchise icon Marvin Harrison, mainly because Harrison’s decline last season was so stark that his true presence essentially left this offense well before his release in March. Reggie Wayne has been a superstar since unofficially assuming Harrison’s No. 1 role a few years ago. Wayne’s blend of power and speed, and his expertise in this offense, make him good for at least 80 catches and 1,200 yards.

Third-year pro Anthony Gonzalez is ready for the No. 2 job. Gonzalez is a fluid route runner who has improved at diagnosing coverages. He shows fantastic concentration when the ball’s in the air and can dissect defenses just about anywhere inside 25 yards. Of course, having Gonzalez start leaves a huge void in the slot. Tight end Dallas Clark can split out and be a star (he’s a master in the seams), but the Colts would love for fourth-round rookie Austin Collie, a man some have compared to Brandon Stokley, to earn immediate playing time. Maturity shouldn’t be an issue, as the rookie is actually 24 (in November) thanks to a Mormon mission. But if Collie isn’t ready, then third-year man Roy Hall will compete with second-year receiver Pierre Garcon for the job. In that event, expect Indy to utilize frequent double-tight end formations.

Defense

Understanding Indianapolis’s defensive scheme is as easy as understanding the format to every episode of Scooby Doo. Sit down for 30 or 40 minutes and it becomes apparent. Scooby Doo may actually have more twists and wrinkles than the Colts’ speed-based read-and-react zone scheme. Though, as mentioned earlier, new coordinator Larry Coyer is looking to change that. Coyer would like to get stouter against the run, particularly out of the trenches. In the past, all four downlinemen were told to only rush the passer. This will remain the case for defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Raheem Brock, and especially for diminutive speed-rusher Robert Mathis and athletic pass-rushing specialist Marcus Howard (a fifth-rounder in ’08). But the focus will expand for the defensive tackles.

Keyunta Dawson and Eric Foster handled the primary interior duties last year. Both are viable run defenders––Dawson because of athleticism and tenacity and Foster because of leverage and lateral mobility. However, neither is a big-time plugger, which is why Polian drafted 305-pound Fili Moala and 314-pound Terrance Taylor. Polian also gave a second chance to talented but troubled Ed Johnson (296 pounds), a former undrafted starter who was released after a marijuana arrest last year. Johnson and the rookies, big as they are, can all shoot the gaps.

If holding down the trenches is of greater significance this season, then it would make sense for the Colts to be more aggressive with their linebackers. Smart middle linebacker Gary Brackett is the group’s leader, but waiting for the productive veteran to corral a tackle takes the same kind of patience as listening to a senior citizen tell a story. Brackett needs to be able to play more assertively. He has the speed to meet this scheme’s demands––as do young strongside linebacker Philip Wheeler and weakside linebacker Clint Session. Wheeler was virtually untested as a rookie last season, but Tyjuan Hagler’s ineptitude and Freddy Keiaho’s inability to shed blocks compelled Indy to start the third-rounder. Session got precipitously better at Sam ‘backer, which makes you wonder why coaches felt the need to move him to Will. Nevertheless, his hunger and speed should help him to thrive in this role.

Strong safety Bob Sanders is as important to this run defense as any of the linebackers––probably even more important, in fact. Sanders has the rare ability to eliminate the natural spacing that this scheme surrenders. Backup Melvin Bullitt can provide some big hits and deflect a few passes, but he’s not the missile that Sanders is. Free safety Antoine Bethea personifies a solid all-around safety: reliable tackler and astute pass defender, but elite in no single area.

The Colts uncharacteristically paid big money ($43 million over five years) to retain a starting cornerback. The lucky man is 26-year-old Kelvin Hayden, a fine ball-defender who doesn’t often get challenged. Hayden works across from Marlin Jackson, a converted safety who has too stiff of hips and heavy of feet to regularly capitalize on his physicality. But this isn’t to say that Jackson, recovering from two torn knee ligaments, can’t be a sound presence.

Nickelback Tim Jennings must polish his mechanics in order to cut back on penalties. Because third-year pro Dante Hughes hasn’t developed, the man gunning for Jennings’s job will be Jerraud Powers, a third-round rookie who impresses scouts with his gritty style of play.

Special Teams

Longtime punter Hunter Smith was too pricey for the cap-strapped Colts to re-sign, so Pat McAfee was drafted in Round Seven. He’ll compete in training camp with undrafted Tim Masthay. What could influence the competition is field goal kicking. Both punters are experienced in this realm; whoever wins the job might be called upon to temporarily fill-in for Adam Vinatieri, should the Super Bowl legend’s recovery from early-summer surgery on his right hip be slow. (Vinatieri is expected to be ready by September.)

Indy’s punt and kick coverage units were only slightly better than its horrendous punt and kick return units last year. New special teams coach Ray Rychelski has plenty of athletic young players to work with, so there’s no excuse for not fixing the problems––at least in coverage. In the return game, the Colts would like to see scantly-used cornerback T.J. Rushing reclaim the job.

Bottom Line

Pretty much the same old story for the Colts, only with a different man (Jim Caldwell) delivering speeches and deciding when to punt, challenge and spend timeouts. Peyton Manning and this offense will be dominant if the front line can improve, and if Donald Brown can augment Joseph Addai enough to form a potent rushing attack. If not, Indy can still move the ball through the air. Defensively, a slightly more aggressive scheme could boost a talented young unit. If the AFC weren’t loaded with physical teams tailor-made for beating the Colts, this club would be a Super Bowl favorite.