“Houston Texans” will be the answer to the most frequently asked NFL question this summer. This is the team that everyone will pick to break out in 2009. This is “The Sleeper”. You’re going to hear about this team during all those sponsored television segments where football experts dilute their credibility by issuing opinionated 15-second soundbits. Here’s an example of what’s to come:

The Houston Texans are this year’s sleeper team because…

**They rebounded from an 0-4 start and went 8-4 last year.

**Quarterback Matt Schaub is entering his third season in Gary Kubiak’s system. If he can stay healthy, he can be a star. (Some experts might also add something along the lines of “Schaub must take care of the football.”)

**Running back Steve Slaton led all rookies with 1,282 yards rushing last season and should be even better considering he’s a perfect fit for this zone-blocking system. (Yes, and he’s a factor in the passing game, too.)

**Receiver Andre Johnson is unstoppable. (Good point.)

**This young offensive line, headlined by second-year left tackle Duane Brown, is getting better. (In reality, Brown is probably the only true youngster up front, but the general idea is that this line is ascending.)

**The defense will be better. Mario Williams is a beast and DeMeco Ryans is a stud. (Analysts love to bunch these two fourth-year stars together. Indeed, Williams is arguably the best defensive end in the NFL. But Ryans is coming off a down year. He’ll benefit from improved players around him, but since few television analysts have enough time––or, in some cases, knowledge––to breakdown such intricate details, we’ll save this part for later, after this introduction’s metaphor peters out).

On top of these obvious points, you’ll also hear some of the lazier talking heads (who survive with interns and assistants feeding them rudimentary information) mention how “Houston will emerge because Gary Kubiak, with two years left on his contract, is fighting to keep his job.” (As if Kubiak hasn’t been giving it his all during these past three seasons.) Or some will mention how the Texans will break out because “owner Bob McNair and GM Rick Smith are no longer running an expansion team; Houston has had two 8-8 seasons and it’s just their year!”

Empty as these soundbits are, they’re not unfounded. Of course, not all Texans analysis will be cheap. Those who really know the game––like a Peter King or a Brian Baldinger, for example––will point out that Houston replenished its defensive coaching staff after the unit ranked 27^th in points allowed last year. Coordinator Richard Smith was fired and replaced in-house by senior defensive assistant Frank Bush. Defensive line coach Jethro Franklin was let go, as was secondary coach Jon Hoke. In their respective places are prickly Bill Kollar and instructive David Gibbs. These changes should reinforce a young defense that, thanks to natural maturation and a few key additions––like end Antonio Smith and first-round strongside linebacker Brian Cushing––has gotten better at all three levels,.

But by no means does being the NFL’s Sleeper Team ensure progress. Just ask last year’s Cleveland Browns. Or 2007’s San Francisco 49ers. Or every year’s Jacksonville Jaguars. As obvious as Houston’s breakout potential is in 2009, their Achilles heal is equally as glaring: depth.

The Texans have terrible depth. If Schaub goes down, there’s no Sage Rosenfels to fill in (and keep games close until a fourth quarter meltdown). Diminutive Steve Slaton is backed by fragile Chris Brown, making the run game shallow enough for “No Diving” signs. Andre Johnson isn’t the only viable receiver on the roster––Kevin Walter is a good No. 2 and Owen Daniels is a praiseworthy tight end––but the former Hurricane is the only one worth double-teaming. If Johnson’s gone, so is the passing game. The front five is equally as thin, and the defense, which has ranked 21^st or lower in each of the last four years, isn’t much better.

This says nothing for the fact that Houston must deal with the rock-steady Colts and defending AFC South champion Titans. Yes, the Texans have gotten better. But just staying healthy isn’t enough. Plus, its borderline impossible. Thus, in order to shake their mediocrity and actually be the breakout team of 2009, the Texans must make a quantum leap. While a great deal of this responsibility rests with the defense, plenty of it falls on the the son of an unemployed Super Bowl head coach and the former backup of a convicted dogfighter.

Offense

Offensive connoisseur Gary Kubiak is handing the play-calling duties over to fresh-faced offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. The 29-year-old passing game guru is only one year older than quarterback Matt Schaub.

Injuries (mainly shoulder and knee) have cost Schaub five games in each of his first two seasons with the Texans. With GM Rick Smith wisely getting a fourth-round pick from Minnesota for backup Sage Rosenfels (as opposed to nothing at all after Rosenfels’s contract would have expired in 2010), there’s a significant onus on the 6’5”, 234-pound Schaub to remain on the field in 2009. Competing for backup duties are former NFC North comedians Dan Orlovsky (the hilarious Lion who inadvertently ran out of the back of the end zone against the Vikings last year) and Rex Grossman (the amusing Bear who became known for his innovative turnovers).

A healthy Schaub can certainly move this offense downfield. He has fine pocket-passing tools, underrated athleticism outside the tackles and a growing understanding of this system. However, he must take care of the football. The Texans ranked third in total yards last season, but 20 interceptions (10 each for Schaub and Rosenfels) caused them to rank just 17^th in scoring.

Perhaps more important than maintaining possession is keeping wideout Andre Johnson in the spotlight. The seventh-year superstar has a stunning blend of size and speed that commands double teams on every snap. Johnson led the NFL with 115 receptions and 1,575 yards last season, and he probably deserved at least 40 percent of the credit for Kevin Walter’s and Owen Daniels’s combined 130 catches and 1,761 yards. Walter is a consummate No. 2 who can go over the middle and also destroy zone coverage. Daniels, a fourth-year tight end fishing for a long-term contract, is a fluid runner who capitalizes on the wide open space this system affords him. As a blocker, he’s not much better than Walter (this is meant as a slap on Walter’s back and one in Daniels’s face). Houston is big on having a blocking tight end off the bench. With Mark Bruener retiring, Smith drafted 262-pound Anthony Hill in Round Four and, for versatility sake, also selected 246-pound James Casey in Round Five.

At the third receiver, Andre’ Davis is a deep threat, but coaches like rising underdog David Anderson. Third-year pro Jacoby Jones is more electric than both, and if he can avoid injury and mistakes, he’ll easily capture the top reserve job. However, it’s running back Steve Slaton who might be the team’s best ancillary receiving weapon. Slaton, swift and adept in the open field, caught 50 balls as a rookie. Then again, with Chris Brown and Ryan Moats as the only other ballcarriers, Slaton’s energy might be best spent on the ground. Slaton doesn’t break tackles well, but in this one-cut system, he doesn’t necessarily have to. Vision and timing are his strong points. Running behind a formidable lead-blocker like Vonta Leach also helps.

Offensive line coach Alex Gibbs is a master at creating chicken soup out of chicken…well, you know. Gibbs’s most important project is second-year left tackle Duane Brown. Most teams would not have rushed the first-rounder into the starting lineup. But Houston did, and, in the end, they seem to have survived the worst of his ups and downs (consistency in protection is his most pressing issue). Brown has all the athletic tools to excel at the pro level. And he benefits from the stability of playing next to venerable guard Chester Pitts.

The Texans would love for Brown to become as reliable as right tackle Eric Winston. Once a green young starter himself, Winston is now in his fourth season and regarded as one of the sounder all-around blockers in the game. Perhaps the only way he could be more reliable yet still unassuming is if he were Mike Brisiel. The once-undrafted right guard helps fortify the pass protection and, with decent movement, handles his business on the ground. Center Chris Myers rounds out the starting five. Critics gripe about his lack of power in a phone booth, but in this system, mobility is king. Myers is well above average in this capacity. And when he’s dictating the action, his technique is wonderful.

Of course, if Myers’s problems against nose tackles become too dire, third-round rookie Antoine Caldwell, a former guard, could get a look. In the very least, Caldwell, like former Jets/Chiefs starting tackle Adrian Jones, gives this line some hope of having versatile, quality depth.

Defense

The Texans needed to make changes defensively. With so many young players, the logical move was to replace the men in charge. Frank Bush is expected to bring more aggression and consistency as a first-time coordinator (of course, they all are). Bill Kollar, a first-round defensive lineman in 1974, is nearing his second decade as a highly-regarded assistant. He’s expected to bring rancorous intensity to a slow-developing, youthful front line (this, by the way, almost ensures the eventual end of the pathetic Travis Johnson era). David Gibbs is tutoring a secondary that includes lightning-quick veteran Dunta Robinson and third-year gem Fred Bennett, plus second-year contributors Antwaun Molden and Dominique Barber.

But the most important sector on this defense is the one sandwiched between the front and back lines. The Texans must get better play from their linebackers in 2009. Middle man DeMeco Ryans is a luminary, but the 25-year-old was actually somewhere between average and subpar last season. Too many of Ryans’s tackles come downfield (hence Houston has ranked in the 20s in yards allowed per carry in each of Ryans’s three seasons).

The addition of first-round strongside linebacker Brian Cushing should help. Frank Bush campaigned for this pick and likes the way the USC standout attacks on playside. Still, the yearning for Cushing is somewhat surprising considering the impressive flashes that Zac Diles has shown. Diles is a resolute thumper who plays fast downhill. However, he doesn’t always shed blocks or take the best angles, and he’s coming off a broken leg. Still, Diles at least deserves a chance to earn a starting job ahead of undersized weaksiders Xavier Adibi and Cato June.

What will also help Ryans be active near the line of scrimmage is adequate play at defensive tackle. That’s something Houston won’t get with lethargic non-achiever Travis Johnson, but they might get it from up-and-comers Amobi Okoye, Frank Okam and Deljuan Robinson. Okoye’s fantastic power still gives him great potential, though it’s time for his technique and awareness to mature. Okam barely got on the field as a fifth-round rookie in ’08, but he offers 337-pound size. Robinson is energetic and uses good leverage to gain penetration. Considering these men enjoy the luxury of playing alongside superstar defensive end Mario Williams, there’s no excuse for underperformance.

Williams, however, could make excuses. He could gripe about how having 26 of the team’s 56 sacks over the last two seasons saddles him with constant double-and triple-teams. Or he could gripe about being an elite pass-rusher who also carries the heaviest load against the run. But the former No. 1 overall pick is as honorable as he is dominant, so he keeps quiet.

The Texans spotted their deficiency at the end position across from Williams and ponied up a $12.5 million signing bonus to lure free agent Antonio Smith (who played for Bush in Arizona). Smith is an invigorating run-defender who can slide to defensive tackle on passing downs. This means second-round rookie Connor Barwin––who posted big numbers as a senior at Cincinnati, then absolutely lit up the Scouting Combine––and rising speed-rush specialist Tim Bulman will see plenty of action.

An improved pass-rush will present a fighting chance for what could be an underrated defensive backfield. Sixth-year cornerback Dunta Robinson is 100 percent healthy and, thus, 100 percent lethal. Robinson, however, avoided all offseason activities in an effort to show his displeasure with being franchise tagged. (He claims he was lied to by the front office; he probably was, but it should be noted that he also turned down $23 million in guarantees at one point).

On the bright side, Robinson’s absence allowed Fred Bennett to work with the first-string all offseason––something Bennett should probably be doing anyway. The lanky, fluid third-year pro is a far better player than shaky starting corner Jacques Reeves, but coaches can’t tolerate his inconsistency. Showing their uncertainty about Bennett, the Texans drafted Glover Quin in the fourth round this year and Antwaun Molden in the third last year. Both are prime athletes still learning the NFL ropes.

That description applies to second-year strong safety Dominique Barber, as well. Though Barber’s actually learning the ropes as a starter, as veteran Nick Ferguson isn’t much more alert than a common rookie anyway. Barber will work alongside free safety Eugene Wilson, a sound tackler and cover specialist, but not the big-play creator that this secondary has long needed.

Special Teams

Kicker Kris Brown has been here since the beginning and continues to go strong. He just signed a new four-year contract. Matt Turk is nearing his end, but there hasn’t been much talk of a punter competition in training camp. Andre’ Davis can dazzle on kick returns, though he didn’t last season. Punt returner Jacoby Jones can do the same (when he’s not fumbling).

Bottom Line

The Texans are a classic trendy pick––and for good reason. This prolific offense is starting to peak. Lack of depth is a legitimate concern, though. It’s hard to fathom how this defense could be anything but improved in 2009. But to what extent remains the question. If Houston stays healthy, they’ll at least post a winning record. If not, the franchise will have to critically evaluate its direction.

Predicted finish: 2^nd AFC South