Got a question for you. Why is no one acknowledging the Green Bay Packers as serious contenders in2009? Not talking about contenders in the mediocre NFC North—talking about Super Bowl contenders. This is where you predictably roll your eyes. Go ahead. After all, the Packers were 6-10 last season. And if the NFL has taught us anything, it’s that bad teams don’t make instant turnarounds….right?

Sarcasm aside, Green Bay really doesn’t have to make a turnaround. People don’t seem to realize that this is virtually the same team that hosted the NFC Championship game two years ago. There are just two major differences between the ’07 Packers and the ’09 Packers. You can probably guess the first one (something to do with the man under center). The second difference is experience: this young Packers team is two years wiser.

Mike McCarthy has twice as much experience as a head coach. Workhorse running back Ryan Grant, who averaged 5.1 yards per carry as a de facto rookie in ’07, is 26 years old and in the heart of his prime. He’s eager to prove that a hamstring injury was to blame for his subpar ’08 campaign (in which he actually rushed for 1,203 yards but averaged just 3.9 per attempt). The depth behind Grant is better too, as agile Brandon Jackson and plodding DeShawn Wynn are no longer callow rookies but emerging third-year contributors.

The passing game is even more lethal. Sagacious 11^th-year veteran Donald Driver is coming off a 1,000-yard season, and bourgeoning speedster Greg Jennings just raked in $16 million in guarantees in a well-deserved contract extension. Granted, the Pack’s pass protection may not be where it was in 2007 when they had bookend veteran tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, but the interior blockers like Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz are better. And, with an assortment of young talents vying for other starting positions, the line as a whole is relatively promising.

Of course, this offense wasn’t the problem last season anyway. It ranked eighth in yards and fifth in total points. The defense, on the other hand, ranked 20^th in yards and 22^nd in total points. To rectify this, McCarthy fired defensive coordinator Bob Sanders and brought in Dom Capers. The 3-4 aficionado is aiming to add to his legacy of overhauling mundane units by installing an aggressive, byzantine system.

The thought of the time-honored Packers abandoning the traditional 4-3 has left fans across the Midwest somewhat befuddled. But it’s the right move. General manager Ted Thompson, as usual, did a shrewd job of stocking the roster over the offseason. Per his modus operandi, Thompson, despite some $30 million in salary cap space, eschewed the free agent market and focused on developing current players and investing in new ones via the draft.

He found 325-pound defensive lineman B.J. Raji at Pick Nine, giving Capers a versatile cornerstone to build around. Shocked that USC outside linebacker Clay Matthews was still available at Pick 26, Thompson shipped a second-rounder and a pair of third-rounders to New England to snatch the son of former Browns Pro Bowl linebacker Clay Matthews and nephew of Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans Hall of Fame blocker Bruce Matthews.

The additions of the prized rookies––and, more directly, the new scheme––pushed some incumbent players into better-fitting positions. Cullen Jenkins is now a 3-4 end. And A.J. Hawk becomes an inside linebacker. The secondary, featuring three Pro Bowlers in Charles Woodson, Al Harris and Nick Collins, and a glistening breakout prospect in Atari Bigby, should be good enough to adjust to the new zone assignments.

With solid depth on both sides of the ball, decent special teams (assuming both kicking games shape up) and a coaching staff boasting many well-regarded assistants, it’s hard, maybe even illogical, to argue that this isn’t a better group than the one that finished 13-5 in 2007.

That is, of course, unless you doubt the guy under center. But few people do. The popular thing to say about Aaron Rodgers is that not only did he win-over the locker room and Lambeau Field by handling the Brett Favre drama with utmost class, but he also played darn well as a first-year starter. Rodgers threw for 4,038 yards and 28 touchdowns (both good for fourth in the NFL) while completing 63.6 percent of his passes.

Yet, one can argue that the Packers would have never finished 0-7 in games decided by four points or less if You Know Who had been orchestrating the offense. Whether this criticism is fair or unfair could determine this team’s Super Bowl chances.

Offense

So how good is Aaron Rodgers, really? The numbers are there, but the W’s aren’t. Rodger has good accuracy and a very natural arm. His well-honed fundamentals give him the ability to laser balls into tight coverage. His mobility allows him to get outside the pocket and extend a play. If this sounds familiar, it is. Rodgers, like Favre, is a risk-taking gunslinger.

The difference between the two is that Favre’s risks were more improvisational; Rodgers’s risks tend to be a result of stubborn loyalty to his presnap reads. Joe Philbin’s West Coast-based offense calls for a lot of quick-hitting passes––particularly to receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Rodgers executes these well, but he also tends to force things. He must do a better job at patiently working through his progressions and being more careful with the football.

As for Jennings and Driver, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more reliable receiving tandem. For Green Bay to have an upper-echelon passing attack, though, the tight ends and backup wideouts must step up. Veteran tight end Donald Lee is dependable but not quick. Second-year pro Jermichael Finley is extremely athletic but equally immature. If Finley can settle down, the Packers will have two good intermediate options.

As for the receivers, James Jones is fast and lithe but prone to mistakes. If last year’s second-round pick, Jordy Nelson, can prove capable of going over the middle––which he likely can––then expect to see Nelson’s lanky 6’3”, 217-pound frame filling the slot. Athletic but inconsistent Ruvell Martin almost remains a noteworthy ancillary contributor.

The Packers hope an improved passing attack can get buttressed by an upgraded ground game in 2009. Ryan Grant’s health is key. The patient downhill runner has good timing and vision and should regain his formidability now that his hamstring is strong enough to survive a full initial burst. Good as Grant is, it makes no sense to feed him 312 carries like last season. Third-year pro Brandon Jackson’s quickness warrants about 10 or 12 touches a game. About one-third of those touches should come through the air, as the former Cornhusker is an improving third-down back (though Jackson’s blocking and timing on screens still have room to grow).

Green Bay regularly employs a fullback––generally Korey Hall between the 20s and the stronger but less flexible John Kuhn in the red-zone––though with a zone-blocking scheme up front, they rely more on counter blocks and backside cleanup than traditional lead-blocks.

This zone-blocking O-line is a question mark at this point. Left tackle Chad Clifton has chronically sore knees and is likely to follow Mark Tauscher out the door after this season (the Packers just drafted his replacement, Jamon Meredith, in the fifth round). As for Tauscher’s replacement, it’s between talented but unripe third-year man Allen Barbre and last year’s fifth-rounder Breno Giacomini. (Fourth-round rookie T.J. Lang figures to need time to develop).

At guard, Daryn Colledge is playing for a new contract on the left side. He’s extremely mobile and has improved in pass protection, but he must prove he can maintain the consistency that he finally started to show last season. Right guard Jason Spitz is moving to center––a position he played in college––to compete with gritty veteran Scott Wells. Wells is savvy but has questionable power and is coming off labrum surgery. Last year’s fourth-rounder rookie, Josh Sitton, is a virtual lock to beat out Duke Preston and Tony Moll at right guard.

Defense

Green Bay’s front seven defenders fall into three categories: uncertain veterans, ideal veterans and star rookies. Let’s evaluate the three groups in reverse. The star rookies are first-rounders B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews. The former will anchor the front line, while the latter is expected to solidify the pass-rush and consistently devour the run. Few scouts have expressed anything but complete confidence in both prospects.

The ideal veterans are guys adapting to more sensible roles. Headlining this group is former No. 5 overall pick A.J. Hawk. Banal as an outside linebacker in a 4-3, Hawk moves to the inside, where he’ll get to take full advantage of his north-south stoutness against the run. Thanks to the offseason holdout of free safety Nick Collins and knee rehab of fellow inside linebacker Nick Barnett, Hawk has a chance to become a leader as the signalcaller of the defense. The other ideal veteran is Cullen Jenkins who, if fully recovered from offseason ankle surgery (which seems to be the case), will be a consummate anchoring end.

As for the uncertain veterans….most notable is Aaron Kampman. The pass-rushing ace hasn’t been thrilled about changing positions in his contract year. Kampman has always outperformed his athletic abilities by getting a good jump off the snap and fighting blockers fervidly. Now standing up, he’ll have to develop dexterity in space and concoct more creative pass-rushing moves.

Barnett is another uncertain veteran simply because his recovery from November’s torn ACL is not certain. If he’s unable to go, pass-defending liability Brandon Chillar could get a look. Or, more appropriately, speedy Brady Poppinga (even though he projects to the outside). There are also questions about Ryan Pickett at nose tackle. Contrary to popular belief, Pickett’s motor is just fine. But most of his dominant plays come from overpowering solo blockers; in this scheme, he’ll have to fight more double-teams. Green Bay is reliant on the ninth-year pro because back and hip problems have made Justin Harrell undependable, felony drug charges hang a dark cloud over Johnny Jolly and lithe end Mike Montgomery, at 280 pounds, isn’t built for this system.

But this is what coaching is for––and the Packers certainly have the right guy in Dom Capers. And they have a secondary that can endure a heavier share of the load. Charles Woodson turns 33 in October but is still one of the game’s top five cornerbacks. He picked off seven passes last season, returning two of them for touchdowns. Woodson should adjust to the zone assignments just fine. As for his fellow Pro Bowl veteran, Al Harris…maybe not so much. Harris won’t be able to rely on his physical press tactics as often, which means receivers should be able to exploit the 34-year-old’s declining quickness. If Harris struggles, ascending nickelback Tramon Williams could push for more playing time. Williams, like dimeback Will Blackmon, has excellent wheels.

Free safety Nick Collins wants a new contract. Another Pro Bowl season exhibiting uncanny anticipation in coverage will earn him a lucrative one. Collins isn’t much of a run-defender, though those chores are reserved for hard-hitting strong safety Atari Bigby anyway. If Bigby can stay healthy, he could emerge as a flatter but still dangerous version of Troy Polamalu.

Special Teams

Kicker Mason Crosby had a fine ’07 rookie season but was shaky in ’08. Punter Jeremy Kapinos was even shakier, averaging just 39.2 yards per boot. Durant Brooks, a young journeyman who was supposed to be elite, will get a chance to unseat him. Will Blackmon headlines the return game. He is so-so on kickoffs but lethal on punts.

Bottom Line

This season rests on how well the defense handles Dom Capers’s new 3-4 system. The magnitude of the changes seem somewhat overwhelming at this point, but Capers’s track record and the overall talent he has to work with suggest that drastic improvements are slightly more likely than first-year struggles. Thus, with a rising offense, the Packers are officially the dark horse team of 2009.

Predicted Finish: 1^st NFC North