Let’s get one thing straight: Matt Millen is not the sole culprit of the Detroit Lions’ problems. Did Millen deserve to get fired from his GM post last season? Even he would tell you, Sure. Detroit is 31-97 since he was hired back in 2001—the worst record in football during that span. Many of Millen’s draft picks didn’t work out and he never found the right head coach for this club.

That said, Millen wasn’t the problem––he was merely part of a bigger problem. This Lions franchise has won just one playoff game in the last 50 years. The only constant during this era has been owner William Clay Ford. It was Ford who recently decided to replace Millen from within. He tapped front office assistant Martin Mayhew for the GM job and promoted executive vice president Tom Lewand to team president, where he’ll handle the salary cap and day-to-day operations. The only significant outsider brought into the front office was James “Shack” Harris, most recently the Jaguars VP of player personnel who will serve as a senior personnel executive (i.e. assistant to the GM).

In short, the Lions are aiming to rectify their problems by leaning on many of the very men who helped create them. No other NFL team has ever lost 16 games in a season, meaning Detroit is truly starting from rock bottom. Of course, they can only go up.

Mayhew’s first significant move as GM was to fire head coach Rod Marinelli and hire highly-successful Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. The 43-year-old Schwartz accumulated a solid veteran staff, headlined by offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham. Both coordinators, like Detroit’s new logo, bring more ferocity and intensity. And both offer something that Schwartz does not: NFL head coaching experience.

Upon arriving in Motown, Schwartz and all his assistants sat down and dissected every second of Lions film from 2009. What they saw was an offense that, with no quarterback, coherent gameplan or rushing attack, ranked 30^th in yards and 27^th in points. The defense was a thousand times worse. Detroit ranked dead last against the run and pass and yielded 517 points, second most in NFL history. After observing the brutal ’08 horror film, Schwartz and Mayhew decided that last year’s entire roster––save for superstar wide receiver Calvin Johnson––was expendable. They also instituted a no-talking policy when it comes to 2008. Players aren’t allowed to give any extra energy to last season.

Because this no talking idea is so sensible, we’re going to play along (best we can). There’s plenty to focus on moving forward. The Lions will have roughly seven new major contributors offensively in 2009, including a quarterback (either All-Pro-turned-journeyman Daunte Culpepper or $41.7 million No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford), three wide receivers (Bryant Johnson, Dennis Northcutt and third-round rookie Derrick Williams) and a topflight tight end (first-rounder Brandon Pettigrew). Linehan is also implementing a more aggressive, battle-tested playbook.

Defensively, old-school curmudgeon Gunther Cunningham is ditching the Cover 2 and introducing a more physical, attacking approach. This is somewhat surprising given that Schwartz ran a de facto Cover 2 in Tennessee, though it’s the head coach who ordered the move. Cunningham will utilize roughly eight new key contributors in this system, including star strongside linebacker Julian Peterson, veteran ex-Steeler middle linebacker Larry Foote, cornerbacks Philip Buchanon and Anthony Henry and scintillating second-round rookie Louis Delmas (a strong safety).

There are almost enough changes here to actually make 2008 obsolete. Offensively, if the front five can gel (granted, a fairly big if), this could be a surprisingly potent unit. Ditto the defense, which is pretty solid at the second and third level but uncomfortably weak along the front. The depth on both sides of the ball is poor, which likely means so are the special teams. Thus, the odds of the Lions writing an epic Cinderella story in 2009 are extremely slim. Of course, it wouldn’t be a Cinderella story if the odds weren’t slim.

Offense

It’s a debate that pops up every year: do you start the rookie franchise quarterback or let him learn the ropes on the bench? Like a custody battle, there’s no standard solution––only case-by-case circumstances.

In this particular case, the rookie is 21-year-old Matthew Stafford, projected to be a prototypical NFL pocket passer who can make star-level throws. The veteran who could potentially keep Stafford holding a clipboard (by the way, it’s time to retire the “holding a clipboard” cliché) is 32-year-old Daunte Culpepper, who enjoyed the best two seasons of his fairly radiant career operating in Scott Linehan’s system as a Viking. Culpepper lost 30 pounds over the offseason, getting down to 260 and regaining some of his old athleticism (though a large portion of that athleticism was permanently lost during his devastating ’05 knee injury).

With the Motor City already reeling, the pressure to energize the fan base by playing Stafford could be thick. But, when the Lions take the field in September they’ll be 20 months removed from their last victory, making the pressure to win right away even thicker. That’s why, as accurate and intelligent as Stafford has looked in practice thus far, you’re likely to see the more reliable Culpepper under center in Week 1.

Whoever it is will be throwing to arguably the most remarkable individual talent in all of football: wideout Calvin Johnson. The third-year pro caught 78 passes for 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, stunning statistics given the ineptitude of the rest of this offense. Johnson is a monster like none any cornerback has seen before. If he ever masters the nuances of his position (think Isaac Bruce or Cris Carter type fundamentals), he could become the league’s first 2,000-yard receiver.

To do that, Johnson would need viable counterpart options to discourage defenses from triple-teaming him. Speedy veteran Bryant Johnson isn’t quite that type of player. Still, the ex-Cardinal and Niner can be a serviceable No. 2 using his speed underneath. Shifty Dennis Northcutt gets more notoriety than he deserves and probably won’t keep third-round rookie Derrick Williams out of the slot for long.

No matter how well these ancillary wideouts perform in ’09, first-round tight end Brandon Pettigrew will be the second option in the passing game. Pettigrew has rare athleticism and a propensity for making plays over the middle. He’s also one of the few pass-catching tight ends to ever enter the NFL with well-polished blocking abilities already in place. This is anything but insignificant, as little-known second-year running back Kevin Smith has star potential. Smith was held to under 63 yards rushing in his first eight games last season, but he topped the 63-yard mark in each of his final eight outings. He plays an unassuming finesse brand of football, punctuated by good quickness and acceleration, particularly at the second level (where fluid hips make him dangerous).

But there may not be enough weapons around Smith to maximize his success. Backup running back Maurice Morris is experienced and assiduous, but he doesn’t give Detroit a vibrant one-two punch. Sixth-round rookie Aaron Brown might prove to be a versatile change-of-pace back, but he wasn’t dynamic enough to even warrant an invite to the Combine.

The run-blocking is of even greater concern. Fullback Terrelle Smith is strong but, as of recent years, inconsistent. Casey Fitzsimmons and Will Heller will compete for the No. 2 tight end duties. Both are serviceable blockers (especially Fitzsimmons when he’s on the move) but their value is inflated by the fact that this O-line is so dependent on them.

Mediocre power makes Jeff Backus a slightly below average left tackle. Coaches wanted to move the 128-consecutive-game-starter to guard, but aside from banged-up ex-Redskin Jon Jansen, there’s no adequate depth at the outside position. Jansen is a right tackle anyway, a position he’ll play behind last year’s first-round pick Gosder Cherilus. The 6’7”, 318-pounder Cherilus can plant defenders, but he can also lose his focus (pretty easily, in fact). Daniel Loper is big and strong, which means he’ll start ahead of Damion Cook at left guard. By this logic, 350-to-400-pound Toniu Fonoti (weight depends on when he last ate) should start ahead of Stephen Peterman at right guard. He won’t––Fonoti’s been out of football too long––but the point is, aside from gritty center Dominic Raiola, none of Detroit’s interior linemen are suitable.

Defense

With quick, energetic but ultimately mundane end Dewayne White being this team’s closest thing to a proven pass-rusher up front, Gunther Cunningham is going to have to manufacture creative pressure packages if he wants to disrupt opposing quarterbacks in 2009. To do this, Cunningham will have freakishly-athletic strongside linebacker Julian Peterson put his hand in the dirt in passing situations. He also wants to use athletic but green second-year end Cliff Avril in a quasi-joker role, similar to what Pittsburgh does with James Harrison. Avril is swift enough for this, but he doesn’t yet have the instincts. Behind Avril will be the ineffective Jared Devries and the inefficient Ikaika Alama-Francis. Also, Jim Schwartz’s former Titan backup, Sean Conover, could see some snaps off the edge.

Inside, the Lions are transforming from a one-gap to space-plugging mantra. Hence, the addition of 345-pound defensive tackle Grady Jackson. A mercurial head case at his worst and major difference-maker at his best, Jackson, along with returning starter Chuck Darby (a slow but hardworking veteran who rarely yields his ground), gives the Lions an interior presence capable of keeping blockers off the linebackers. Both veterans will need rest, though. Considering last year’s rookie defensive tackles Andre Fluellen (third round) and Landon Cohen (seventh) were drafted specifically for the now moot Cover 2, a considerable burden falls on 319-pound rookie Sammie Lee Hill.

At least this defense has a fantastic linebacking core. Peterson is a star. New middle man Larry Foote is 29 and, playing in a one-year contract for his hometown team, motivated to prove he can succeed outside of Pittsburgh’s vaunted 3-4 scheme. Foote has superb strength at the point of attack. Weakside linebacker Ernie Sims stumbled in his third season last year but looked like a budding star the previous two years. Coaches believe this scheme, which allows the speedy 225-pounder to attack more than read, will help him regain his form. Third-round rookie DeAndre Levy will almost certainly beat out last year’s disappointing second-rounder Jordan Dizon for top backup duties.

In the secondary, upon being traded here for Jon Kitna, Anthony Henry got to choose between moving to free safety or continuing at cornerback. The ninth-year veteran chose corner, where he hopes his physicality and awareness can continue to compensate for his diminishing change-of-direction quickness. Opposite Henry will be former Buc Philip Buchanon, a playmaker when confident but liability when stuck on an island.

The free safety position will be a weakness in 2009. Fourth-year pro Daniel Bullocks is penciled in as the starter, but he lacks instincts and flair. Kalvin Pearson would be a better option, though he’s more natural in the box. That’s where second-round rookie Louis Delmas, an impressive hitter with a high football IQ, is expected to shine. Depth is a major issue with this group. Quarterbacks will target ex-Titan Eric King if he beats out Keith Smith for nickelback duties. (If Smith wins the job, he’ll really be targeted.)

Special Teams

Kicker Jason Hanson has seemingly been in Detroit since the release of the Model A. The 39-year-old is still going strong and signed a four-year contract extension over the offseason. Punter Nick Harris has a bigger leg than his 43.9 average last year suggests. In the kick return game, Aveion Cason brings experience, but he’s probably not worth a roster spot. Thus, expect third-round rookie Derrick Williams to snag this job. Similar story for punt returns: if Adam Jennings can’t make the roster as a No. 5 receiver, then either Williams or Dennis Northcutt will step in.

Bottom Line

When a team’s coming off a winless season, all people care about is how many victories they’ll register in their bounce-back effort. So, here it is: five. The Detroit Lions look like a classic 5-11 team.

Predicted Finish: 4^th NFC North