I went into work this morning knowing I had to eventually write an article trying to make sense of New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s decision to leave his offense on the field on 4th and 2 at their own 28 yard line with no timeouts ahead of the 2:00 warning. You’ve all at least heard about the play by now: QB Tom Brady lined up in shotgun, emptied the backfield by sending RB Kevin Faulk out in the slot on WR Randy Moss’ side of the field, and threw a quick out to Faulk. Faulk caught it, but not cleanly enough to be given forward progress on the play after Indianapolis Colts SS Melvin Bullitt hit him as the ball arrived. The Patriots couldn’t challenge the play, and Colts QB Peyton Manning ultimately threw the game-tyingTD pass to WR Reggie Wayne with 13 seconds remaining. After K Matt Stover’s PAT, it was Colts 35, Patriots 34. After spending the week writing the 1SKILLZ Gameplan for this game, I thought the Patriots could do enough to “steal a win on the road and send a message to the rest of the league.” And they did more than enough, but some serious shortcomings can’t be missed in the aftermath of Belichick’s logic:

*In case there was any doubt about Brady and Moss’ ability to hit the home run ball, they did it some more Sunday night, multiple times. Moss had 179 yards receiving on nine catches, beating Colts FS Antoine Bethea deep for one TD and seemingly sealing the game when he caught a TD in front of Colts CB Tim Jennings to give the Patriots a 31-14 4th quarter lead. The yardage marked the most Moss has ever had in a Patriots uniform since the 2007 season opener, Moss’ first game with the team. And Brady didn’t just find Moss with the play-action fakes, as WR Wes Welker also had nine catches for 94 yards. It was also refreshing to see WR Julian Edelman return to catch his first career TD, and WR/QB Isaiah Stanback caught his first two passes as a Patriot as he effectively replaces rookie WR Brandon Tate (injured reserve - knee). BUT, besides the dubious one yard completion to Faulk, Brady threw another INT trying to hit Moss deep in the third quarter. Manning would give the ball right back, but those were points left on the field.

*The play-action fakes really loosened up the Colts defense as Brady would drop passes right over the Colts LB’s heads, and Faulk had 79 rushing yards on only 12 carries, the most yards Faulk has had in a game since 2004. BUT, RB Laurence Maroney showed his inconsistency yet again, gaining only 31 yards on 13 carries and losing a critical fumble in the end zone in the third quarter. Again, points left on the field in a game decided by one point.

*LT Sebastian Vollmer showed that he might be the next franchise LT in New England, following in the footsteps of Bruce Armstrong (1987-2000) and Matt Light (2001-2009?). Vollmer had already came into the game with rave reviews for his work protecting Brady’s blind side since Light went down with an injury, perhaps most notably against Miami Dolphins OLB Joey Porter (who, by the way, was benched by Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano for their 25-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccanneers). Colts DE Dwight Freeney had come into the game having at least one sack in every game this season, but Vollmer was rarely beaten by Freeney and Freeney didn’t have a sack. BUT, RT Nick Kaczur (who played LT as a rookie when Light missed 13 games in 2005) did indeed have trouble with DE Robert Mathis. Mathis had two sacks, forcing a Patriots FG attempt with a 3rd down sack in the first half and a Brady fumble in the 4th quarter, and almost got to Brady for another sack; Brady eluded Mathis and found Edelman for a TD on that play in the 2nd quarter. When Light is healthy to play, who goes to the bench: Vollmer, Kaczur, or Light himself?

*The Patriots managed to get a sack of QB Peyton Manning, and from an unlikely source: up the gut from ILB Jerod Mayo. It is the first time that Manning was sacked by an ILB all season, and it was Mayo’s first career sack. BUT, the Patriots lost their best pass-rusher, OLB Tully Banta-Cain, on a special teams play, and the Colts offensive line did not surrender another sack.

*Even without DE Ty Warren, the Patriots did not allow a big rushing play, and appeared to be in decent shape with RBs Joseph Addai (finger) and Chad Simpson (head) missing time during the game with injuries and rookie RB Donald Brown not having an effective first game back returning from his shoulder injury (14 yards, 4 carries). BUT, when Addai (41 yards, 10 carries, 1 TD) and Simpson (36 yards, 4 carries) were on the field, the Colts took advantage of the undermanned Patriots, pinning NT Vince Wilfork on some key runs in the 4th quarter especially.

*For most of the game, the Patriots secondary did an admirable job against Manning and his targets. Granted, Manning and his receivers were error-prone in this game: the dropped passes by WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, the terrible play-action pass by Manning to Garcon in the third quarter that was intercepted by CB Leigh Bodden, the miscommunication on play-action between Manning and WR Reggie Wayne that led to CB Jonathan Wilhite’s first INT of the season. Despite the Patriots giving up passing TDs to Addai on a screen and Wayne after Manning moved a safety, the Patriots secondary was doing a good job bending but not breaking. BUT, the Patriots started breaking after going up 17 in the 4th quarter. On the Colts’ first 4th quarter TD drive, Bodden got burned by Garcon down the right sideline for a 29 yard TD, only the second TD the Patriots have allowed outside the red zone this season. On the Colts’ second 4th quarter TD drive, the big play was when rookie Colts WR Austin Collie bumped rookie Patriots CB Darius Butler to draw a 31 yard pass interference penalty that placed the ball on the Patriots 13 yard line. And finally on the Colts’ third and final 4th quarter TD drive that started at the Patriots 29 yard line, Manning found Wayne for 15 yards in front of Wilhite, Addai ran up the middle for 13 yards, and two plays later Wayne beat Wilhite inside for the TD.

*Even the Patriots special teams played a significant role in the game. KR Matt Slater averaged 27.1 yards on his first three kickoff returns of the season, and Welker’s 69 yard punt return to end the 3rd quarter set up Moss’ 5 yard TD pass. On the other hand, punter Chris Hanson had his best game of the season, punting four times for an average of 44 yards a punt with none being returned. BUT, Hanson should have had five punts in this game. Maybe it was he Belichick didn’t trust with the game on the line, not his defense?

I don’t want to hear about playing percentages here. Many players were at fault in this loss, but a coach’s job is to put players in position to succeed and execute in the first place. The bottom line here is that Belichick made a dubious coaching error, one that a certain video game forbids you from doing in fair play mode! Putting faith in your offense and QB is one thing. Telling them to get two yards is one thing. Going for it on 4th down is one thing. But to put faith in your offense on that part of the field after completely mismanaging the clock situation while risking alienating a defense (and special teams) and putting them in a position where Peyton Manning has all kinds of time to gain 29 yards? Maybe Belichick was worried about how the defense performed when the Denver Broncos won the coin toss in overtime. Maybe Belichick saw what Manning did to the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 on Monday Night Football, going 80 yards in 32 seconds to win that game, and couldn’t get the images of his secondary getting torched in the 4th quarter out of his head. Maybe Belichick remembered how Manning bought his team back to win the 2006 AFC Championship game. Whatever it is, I’m sure Belichick is trying to send some kind of message to his team, specifically his defense. After all, the team has used previous losses to improve a team weakness. After being outcoached by Jets rookie head coach Rex Ryan, Belichick stopped having Brady throw 50 times a game and instilled balance in his offensive football team. After being outcoached by Broncos rookie head coach Josh McDaniels, Belichick challenged his offensive football team to make some plays down the field. After being outcoached by Colts rookie head coach Jim Caldwell, perhaps Belichick wants his defense (and special teams) to be pissed the rest of the season and take it on the remaining schedule. Perhaps he believes that the 4-5 Jets, 4-5 Dolphins, and 3-6 Bills won’t catch his 6-3 Patriots for the AFC East title anyway. Perhaps Belichick didn’t want to win this game as much as he wanted to send a message to his team. If that’s the case, then this decision in a regular season game is a good one. Crazy thoughts, I know. But by that logic, the Patriots better not lose another game this season, or this will be a defining moment in what has been a siginificant downfall in the reputation of Bill Belichick since 2005.

-1SKILLZ