After three years, the 1SKILLZ Gameplan has entered conference championship weekend!  The AFC #1 seed New England Patriots (14-3) is hosting the AFC #2 seed Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, January 22, 2012, for the Lamar Hunt Trophy and a ticket to Indianapolis, IN to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI.  Will the Ravens continue their three-year streak of winning at least one road postseason game and win the AFC for the first time since 2000-2001?  Or will the Patriots, in their seventh AFC championship appearance since Robert Kraft bought the team in 1994, win their first AFC title since 2007-2008?

The Ravens and Patriots both came off of their Wild Card byes with home victories in the AFC Divisional Round.  The Ravens eliminated the Houston Texans 20-13, forcing Texans rookie QB T.J. Yates into 3 INTs.  The Patriots did more than eliminate the Denver Broncos; they blew up the hole where the Broncos’ heart was before it was left in Denver, defeating them 45-10 behind six TDs by Patriots Pro Bowl QB Tom Brady (five in the first half).  The Patriots are 6-0 vs. the Ravens in regular season play, with the most recent victory taking place in October 2010, a 23-20 comeback OT win in which Patriots WR Deion Branch, in his first game back after spending parts of five seasons in Seattle, gained 98 yards and a TD on nine catches.  But the only postseason matchup between the two teams came in January 2010, where the Ravens avenged a 27-21 regular season loss with a 33-14 win, forcing Brady into four turnovers and getting 159 yards and 2 TDs (83-yard TD run on first play from scrimmage) from RB Ray Rice.

RAVENS PASS OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE

Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco set a record when he beat the Patriots in January 2010 … battling multiple injuries, Flacco gained the least amount of yards (34) for a winning starting QB in playoff history with minimum 10 attempts (Flacco went 4/10, with no TDs and an INT).  Flacco has been incredibly inconsistent this season, completing a career-low 58% of his passes, and he only completed 14 of 27 against the Texans on Sunday.  The Ravens would prefer not to rely on Flacco to win this game.  But in the event that they do, they can take solace in the fact that Flacco is healthy and has the physical tools and the right weapons to beat the Patriots.  He has a healthy WR Anquan Boldin, who will be a difficult physical matchup for New England’s CBs.  He has raw but fast rookie WR Torrey Smith on the other side, and the Patriots haven’t faced Flacco with a legitimate speed receiver before; I’m not sure the Patriots want to leave any of their CBs on an island with Smith, especially extra toasty CB Devin McCourty, who has been burned deep all year.  McCourty and SS Patrick Chung will be the safeties as much as possible for NE, though FS James Ihedigbo and SS Sergio Brown will get a lot of time in the secondary.  The Patriots may get a dose of their own medicine as the Ravens also have two second-year TEs in Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta.  Dickson and Pitta aren’t as big, fast, or talented as the Patriots’ duo, but they have been good enough to let the Ravens feature them and Pro Bowl RB Ray Rice in the passing game instead of bringing #3 WR Lee Evans into the fold (Evans has been less productive this season than Chad Ochocinco).  The Patriots’ M.O. will be to stop Ray Rice in the passing game, but they risk opening up the field for Smith, Boldin, and the tight ends.  And as frustrating as Flacco can be, the Patriots thrive on forcing turnovers, and Flacco only had two multi-INT games this season.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Ravens.

RAVENS RUN OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE

Like the passing game, the Patriots will be aggressive in defending Ray Rice and the run game of the Ravens.  The Patriots allowed 3.6 yards rushing and several negative plays to the Broncos in the Divisional playoff game, which derailed Denver’s offense since they ran it 40 times.  Patriots ILB Brandon Spikes is healthy, and playing behind Pro Bowl DT Vince Wilfork and underrated DT Kyle Love and besides tackle machine WLB Jerod Mayo, Spikes will need to be extra physical at the point of attack.  Ravens Pro Bowl FB Vonta Leach will be seeking to take out both Spikes and Mayo on a regular basis in an effort to free up Rice.  Rice isn’t big, but he is a tough, durable runner, and he has the speed to blast the Patriots on the third level (again, 83-yard TD run two years ago).  Now, the Patriots haven’t been totally dominated by Rice.  Last season, on 28 carries, Rice only managed 88 rushing yards against the Patriots, no run longer than 8 yards.  Rice will be spelled by his childhood idol, RB Ricky Williams.  Williams has been serviceable this season, and the Patriots are familiar with the abilities of the former Miami Dolphin.  In the Ravens’ 13 wins this season, Rice has averaged 21 carries and scored 12 TDs.  In the Ravens’ four losses, Rice totaled 36 carries for 155 yards and no TDs.  Meanwhile, Flacco averaged 39 attempts in those four losses, with five TDs and half of his INTs (six) coming in the losses.  Expect the Ravens to live or die by Rice.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Ravens.

RAVENS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. PATRIOTS PASS RUSH

The Ravens allowed five sacks against the Texans, and the Patriots have 16 sacks in their last four games since losing Pro Bowl DE Andre Carter for the season in Denver.  Carter was the Patriots’ best pass rusher and they still don’t have a singular threat to put pressure on Ravens OTs Bryant McKinnie or Michael Oher.  But the 16 sacks have all come from the front seven (LBs Mayo, Spikes and SLB Rob Ninkovich, and DTs Wilfork, Love, and Gerard Warren, and DEs Mark Anderson, Shaun Ellis, and Brandon Deaderick).  Even with all of the ridiculous injuries to the Patriots’ defensive line this season (they cut DT Albert Haynesworth after their third loss of the season and placed Carter, DE Jermaine Cunningham, DT Myron Pryor, and DT Mike Wright), the Patriots still have enough depth in the front seven in January.  Ravens C Matt Birk, LG Ben Grubbs, and RG Marshal Yanda have performed well all season, but they’d probably prefer to try and move the Patriots on the ground instead of having to protect Flacco 30+ times.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Ravens.

RAVENS PASS RUSH vs. PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE

I don’t want to overthink this too much.  Patriots LT Matt Light struggles with Pro Bowl Ravens OLB Terrell Suggs.  Patriots Pro Bowl LG Logan Mankins couldn’t finish the game against the Broncos, and now he has to contend with Pro Bowl Ravens DE Haloti Ngata.  And with RT Sebastian Vollmer out, rookie RT Nate Solder will get all he can handle from Suggs and sub-rushers OLB Paul Kruger and DE Pernell McPhee (Kruger and McPhee combined for 11.5 sacks).  The Ravens are going to blitz hard, and they have the players to physically overwhelm the Patriots up front.  Of course, Pro Bowl RG Brian Waters will help inside.  The Ravens have an avalanche of a pass rush, but they didn’t get a sack last week and can be as inconsistent as their QB.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Ravens.

RAVENS RUN DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

You know, I didn’t anticipate Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez getting carries out of the Patriots’ backfield against the Broncos!  And he did have an 18-yard run against the Ravens last season.  Hernandez may or may not have been concussed by the end of his rushing exploits against the Broncos last week though, and whereas the Broncos are candy in the middle, the Ravens are, well, the Ravens.  The Patriots know better than to spend most of the game lining up and trying to power run on Ngata, Pro Bowl ILB Ray Lewis, and massive NT Terrence Cody.  If rookie RB Stevan Ridley could be trusted to hold on to the football he might’ve seen the bulk of the workload against the Ravens, but he lost a fumble against the Broncos last week and may be nailed to the bench as a result.  Last season, RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis (20 yards and a goal-line TD on 10 carries) and Danny Woodhead (64 yards on 11 carries) split carries against the Ravens.  Green-Ellis is physical without putting the ball on the ground (zero career fumbles), so he’ll get the call again here, but Woodhead’s ability in the passing game suggest that he’ll see 1.5 to 2 times as much time on the field as the Patriots attempt to put up points.  The Ravens’ LBs (Lewis, ILB Jameel McClain, OLBs Suggs and Jarret Johnson) and box SS Bernard Pollard (yes, New England, that Bernard Pollard) are very physical, but aren’t great athletes at this stage of their careers.  Look for NE to try and stretch them with some big plays to test their discipline.  ADVANTAGE: Ravens.

RAVENS PASS DEFENSE vs. PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

The Patriots defense is placing a bulls-eye on Ray Rice.  The Ravens defense will place their bulls-eye on Tom Brady.  Now, when Brady struggled in the playoffs against the Ravens two years ago (23/42, 154 yards, 2 TDs to Julian Edelman, 3 INTs, lost fumble), consider his skill players in that game: RBs Kevin Faulk (20 touches), Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney; TEs Ben Watson and Chris Baker (they combined for 5 yards receiving); WRs Randy Moss, Julian Edelman, Sam Aiken.  The only players still on the roster now are Faulk and Edelman, and Brady won’t be relying on those players like he needed to two years ago.  Also consider that while Ravens FS Ed Reed was still on the PUP list in the game against the Patriots last season, Brady put up respectable numbers (27/44, 292 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) with two rookie TEs in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch in his first game in NE since 2005, and Wes Welker only 10 months removed from ACL surgery.  The Ravens have been strong against the pass all season, allowing only 11 TD passes while getting a Pro Bowl season out of FS Ed Reed and outstanding play from CB Lardarius Webb.  But in two of their losses, in Tennessee and San Diego, Matt Hasselbeck and Philip Rivers must have liked the matchups they saw and proceeded to torch the Ravens.  The worst part of the Ravens’ defense is always their secondary, and with Pollard as the starting SS, Reed has to cover even more ground.  Webb has been great this season, but the other CBs are new starter Cary Williams and rookie first-round pick Jimmy Smith.  Williams and Smith both have great size for CBs, but they have been targeted successfully by passers at times this season.  Brady has to be at his best, as the Patriots don’t win this game if his bad throws result in multiple INTs; the Ravens will catch the balls the Broncos failed to catch.  But Brady will look and see that none of the Ravens LBs can cover, their SS can’t either, the Ravens love to blitz (which is a good way to get beat if Brady gets it picked up), and his targets are better now than they were at any point of last season (Pro Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski and TE Aaron Hernandez aren’t rookies anymore, Pro Bowl WR Wes Welker is healthy, and Branch and Danny Woodhead are entrenched).  Don’t expect a big game from Welker, but the Ravens are going to have to injure one of the tight ends if they hope to stop any of them.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

RAVENS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS

The Ravens special teams was bailed out last week by Texans WR Jacoby Jones and Texans P Matt Turk.  Ravens head coach John Harbaugh was a longtime special teams coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, but he has his match in Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who also was a former special teams coach.  While the Ravens’ coverage units have allowed three TDs this season, the Patriots’ have allowed none and will send WR Matthew Slater to the Pro Bowl.  Combine that with the general shakiness of K Billy Cundiff this season on FGs (nine missed FGs) and the Patriots philosophy of ball security on returns, and the Ravens will have to find another way to pick up cheap points this week.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

RAVENS COACHING vs. PATRIOTS COACHING

Are the Patriots the type of team that will have an emotional letdown after thrashing the Broncos?  Not if Belichick can help it.  The last time the Patriots irresponsibly celebrated a playoff win was in January 2007, in San Diego.  Verily, they would lose the AFC Championship the following week, blowing a huge lead in Indianapolis.  The Patriots’ coaching staff had no clue how they were going to beat the Ravens two years ago after Welker tore his ACL the week before in Houston (with Bernard Pollard standing over him).  But since that game, the Patriots have gone 28-6.  The Ravens’ LBs coach is Dean Pees, who was the Patriots’ defensive coordinator during the playoff loss to Baltimore.  While the Ravens defense has been sparked by defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano (hired to be Rex Ryan’s secondary coach in Baltimore in 2008), the offensive playcalling of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is worrisome.  The Ravens run a predictable offense, rarely using more than two receivers, and FB Vonta Leach isn’t much with the ball in his hands.  This could be Cameron’s last game as offensive coordinator if he finds a way to screw up this game against the #31 defense in the NFL.  While John Harbaugh has been an outstanding coach for the Ravens (five playoff wins, all on the road before last week against the Texans), the three losses against the Steelers twice and the Colts featured all of ten points being scored in the second half.  The Ravens are an emotional team, and even though they went 10-3 after the bye, they never won by more than 15 points after that stretch, went 4-4 on the road this season, and seemed to be disinterested in playing a complete game.  Conversely, the Patriots finally played a complete game last week against the Broncos.  ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

INTANGIBLES

The Patriots don’t talk much, the Ravens talk a lot.  This is a deep-rooted rivalry, as covered in the piece from this week.  There’s no way either team’s players want to chat it up with New York Jets players in the Pro Bowl next week.  This category is almost a dead point.  None of these players or coaches lack for motivation or inspiration.  The Ravens have won all of the games they cared to play (they went 6-0 in the AFC North, beat the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets on national TV, haven’t lost consecutive games since their 2009 bye week, and won every home game, including two against AFC South champion Houston).  The Patriots, meanwhile, slipped up against the Buffalo Bills (first loss to Bills since 2003), Pittsburgh Steelers (first loss after bye week since 2002), and New York Giants (first regular season home loss since 2008, first consecutive losses since 2009, first NFC loss since 2009).    Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Logan Mankins, and Aaron Hernandez all have some level of injury concern, but they’ll start.  The biggest injury for the Ravens is FS Ed Reed’s ankle, but I suspect he’ll be fine.  Reed also called out his QB this week and the entire defense has taken turns calling out Cam Cameron all season.  The Ravens are picking an interesting time to sound like the New York Jets.  This will be a spirited cold weather contest in Foxborough.  Hopefully, Bernard Pollard doesn’t injure anyone (watch out, Rob Gronkowski).  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Patriots.

BOTTOM LINE

This game is the Patriots’ to win.  The Patriots are on a mission to get to the Super Bowl, a year after falling short after a 14-2 season.  Tom Brady has a full offense that is arguably on a higher level than the 2007 Super Bowl team, and the Patriots defense is back on track after the healthy returns of Brandon Spikes and Patrick Chung.  This game is going to come down to Brady versus Ray Rice, with the X-Factor being the play of Joe Flacco.  The Ravens need to force Brady into mistakes, and I think they’ll find a way to do it because Brady will need to pass over 40 times in this game.  Brady’s last three postseason losses came when he had to throw 45 times against the Jets, 42 times against these Ravens, and 48 times against the Giants.  If Rice and the Ravens defense allows Flacco to simply manage the game, and Flacco makes some big throws against a secondary that can still be had, I think the Ravens will win in controversial fashion and represent the American Football Conference in Indianapolis.  PREDICTION: Ravens.

NFC Championship prediction (2-2 last week, 5-3 for 2011 playoffs, +60 in 2011 regular season):

49ers over Giants.  (Yes, the Giants are playing outstanding lately, and Eli Manning torched the 49ers earlier this season without Ahmad Bradshaw.  But the 49ers are going to put more pressure on Manning than the Packers did in all phases of the game, and they have already beaten the Giants in a game where Frank Gore gained zero yards on six carries.  The only thing that concerns me for the 49ers?  That was too emotional a victory against the Saints last week.  Good thing they’re at home, they have a great coach, and perhaps most importantly, they have a great defense and special teams.)

-1SKILLZ