2012 NFL Playoff Predictions: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

January 22, 2012 by

Are you a fan of old-school smash mouth football?  Well, feast your eyes on the NFC Championship Game on Sunday at 6:30pm EST on FOX, featuring the New York Giants (11-7) at the San Francisco 49ers (14-3).

GridironGrit.com’s Michael Gartman and Oren Shiri both provide their analysis for Championship Sunday.  

MICHAEL’S PREVIEW

Raise your hand if you said at any point between late August and early January that Green Bay and New Orleans would both be eliminated from contention heading into championship weekend.

I’m always looking to not only think outside-the-box and consider the big picture, but also delve into every possible scenario—but I must say I never saw this matchup being a remote possibility prior to last week—and even then it seemed like a long-shot.

Playoff History

These teams met six times in postseason play in a 12-year span during the early ‘80’s-‘90’s.  The first encounter happened back in 1981, where the Niners stuck gold with a 38-24 victory in the Bay in the divisional round.  San Francisco advanced again in the same round at home by two scores 21-10 three years later.

The Giants got revenge the next two years with a 17-3 win in wildcard weekend in ’85 and a decisive 49-3 shellacking in the divisional round in ‘86—both on the east coast.

Their next get-together in the playoffs was in 1990, where the Giants pulled out a 15-13 slugfest win in the championship round in San Francisco.  Finally, the 49ers capped it off with some playoff payback—stomping on the Giants 44-3 at home in the divisional round in 2003.

“The last Giants-49ers playoff game was an absolute classic,” writes SI.com’s Chris Burke.  “In the wildcard round on Jan. 5, 2003, San Francisco stormed back from a 38-14 deficit behind Jeff Garcia and won the game, 39-38, on a late Garcia-to-Tai Streets touchdown pass, making the second-biggest comeback in NFL playoff history.”

What To Expect

Like the Week 10 get-together, Sunday’s showdown should go right down to the wire.  I expect the battle in the trenches will tell the tale of who advances to Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLVI.

Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) and Frank Gore (ankle) were both banged up in the first meeting and failed to produce a single yard on the ground.  With a favorable field for San Francisco with projected monsoon-like conditions, both backs can surely expect a heavy load this time.

The Giants are sizzling and appear to be peaking at the perfect time yet again, but as I pointed out in last week’s Saints-49ers prediction, the edge of coming in with a full head of steam—while paramount—might be eclipsed by their opponent’s home-field advantage.

SI.com Senior Writer Peter King points to a huge matchup in the trenches with “Niners defensive lineman Justin Smith against left tackle Davis Diehl (on first downs) and guard Kevin Boothe (on passing downs) and chips from other Giants” as major keys to the game.

I hope Alex Smith and Eli Manning come into this contest well-rested, because these two defenses have been brutal, restless and relentless on opposing offenses.  Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Chris Canty and Jason Pierre-Paul will also look to deliver boiling pressure and become game-changing sack masters.

Manning handed Tom Terrific and the Pats their only loss at home this season ended their pursuit of perfection in Super Bowl XLII.  Peyton’s little brother has also defeated the Packers twice at Lambeau on the way to a 6-1 playoff record in the last four years.  Tony Romo may want to take notes.

Containing the Giants’ terrific trio of receivers will be a tough task, but San Francisco has thrived on winning the turnover battle all year.  The Niners’ hard-nosed defense hasn’t let up a lick against the run, either.  I don’t expect those season-long trends to end here.

Look for Alex Smith and company to continue to play with swagger and the entire team to once again deliver 100 percent team effort, as Jim Harbaugh’s club advances as NFC Champions.  Prediction: San Francisco 28, N.Y. Giants 24

Verse of This Piece: “Doing right brings freedom to honest people, but those who are not trustworthy will be caught in their own desires.” —Proverbs 11:6

OREN’S PREVIEW

The tale of these two franchises riddle the history of the postseason, where both have made their mark.  Between these two teams, the Giants and 49ers have eight Super Bowl titles, with the most recent in the 2007 season when the Giants defeated the 18-0 Patriots.

Sunday’s showdown will be will be their eighth postseason matchup, equaling the most matchups in the history of the playoffs between any two teams.

Golden Boy: Rags To Riches In One Season

Alex Smith has completely turned around his professional career and removed the draft bust label in one season under Jim Harbaugh with a 90.7 quarterback rating, 61.3 completion percentage, throwing for 3,144 yards and 17 touchdowns to only five interceptions.  He completed 24 of 42 passes (57.1 comp. percentage) for 299 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win and instant classic against Drew Brees and the sizzling New Orleans Saints.  Smith also displayed a 103.2 QB rating and wrapped up the action-packed affair with several clutch moments down-to-the-wire, including a 28-yard scamper for a score near the 2:00 warning.

49ers’ Quarterback Killers

The NFC’s top defense—lead by the likes of veteran Ahmad Brooks, who accumulated 7.0 sacks and a forced fumble, along with Missouri alum DE Justin Smith, who produced 7.5 sacks and three forced fumbles and OLB Aldon Smith, who chalked up a whopping 14.0 helmet-jarring sacks and a pair of forced fumbles as a rookie—were the cornerstone of the Bay Bombers.

The Niners were able to grab the victory from New Orleans in theatrical—if not overwhelming—fashion and proved their passing game is as lethal as any other air attack still in the race in the process.

Manning’s The Man in New York

But here come the mighty Giants marching into the Bay Area with a red-hot quarterback equipped with Super Bowl experience.  Big Blue is now hands down the hottest and most dangerous team in the postseason.

Passing for 4,933 yards with 29 touchdowns to 16 interceptions, along with a 92.0 quarterback rating and 61.0 completion percentage in the regular season, Manning has only elevated his (borderline) elite status this postseason, completing 44 of 65 throws (67.7 completion percentage) for 607 yards and six touchdowns to only one interception and display a 121.8 passer rating.

Manning has become warm and fuzzy with play-action, fully embracing the team’s much-improved healthy backfield.

Giants’ Ferocious Front, What To Expect

Defensively, the G-Men also have an experienced group of veterans that play aggressively in the trenches and have generated increased pressure and number of forced turnovers with the complete presence of the ferocious front four.

Don’t expect Manning and the Giants to lay down, but the home crowd and saturated field ultimately favors San Francisco.

“We say it [the weather] is not going to change anything,” Giants head coach Tom Coughlin told Peter King on Thursday.  And we go into the game with a certain game plan based on what we think can succeed.  But then you have to get a feel for the game.  Regardless, I think we would continue to throw if that’s what we think will work, because Eli has demonstrated how well he can throw the ball in weather.”

The 49ers have performed like true champions this season.  Someone always tends to step up and make a big play when it counted.  Moreover, Harbaugh has his team poised every week to fight for more.

Look for whoever wins the turnover battle to become the winner, winner, chicken dinner.  I think Harbaugh and the Niners will be that team that punches the ticket to represent the NFC in the big dance in Indianapolis.  A big day from Vernon Davis and Frank Gore could have a lot to deal with it.  Prediction: San Francisco 24, N.Y. Giants 21

Michael Gartman is the Founder, CEO of GridironGrit.com and Managing Editor of NFLTouchdown.com.  Oren Shiri is the Marketing Coordinator and an analyst at GridironGrit and Founder of NFL Draft Insiders.  Follow @_MichaelGartman@NFLorentime and @GridironGrit on Twitter!  Let us also know your feedback below!

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