After four games, the 2009 New England Patriots have come to the quarter mark of the schedule.  They are 3-1: defeating the Buffalo Bills 25-24 at home on Monday Night Football, losing to the New York Jets 16-9 at the Meadowlands, defeating the Atlanta Falcons 26-10 at home, and defeating the Baltimore Ravens 27-21 at home.  The loss to the Jets is the reason they are second in the AFC East.

I think it is an interesting time to evaluate the Patriots.  At the optimist end of the spectrum, they look like an elite team.  At the pessimist end of the spectrum, they look average.  I’ll go to the grades now:

PASS OFFENSE: B-.  QB Tom Brady is coming back from reconstructive knee surgery and has taken some time to get comfortable again.  The process is still ongoing, which is positive because it is not like he is playing bad.  He is on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards, he has only thrown two interceptions and lost one fumble, and  WR Randy Moss is on pace for over 100 catches and 1,000 yards.  The problem with the pass offense has been an alarming lack of big plays and scoring plays.  Brady has thrown only 4 touchdowns this season; on that pace, it would mark a career low as a starter.  Brady has also only averaged 6.5 yards an attempt, his lowest at this point since 2002 (the last season the Patriots won fewer than 10 games).  Moss scored his first touchdown of the season against the Ravens; he is currently averaging a career-low 11.4 yards per reception.  WR Wes Welker has been productive in the two games he’s played (18 receptions), but he is only averaging 7.8 yards per reception.  TE Ben Watson is averaging a team high 14.5 yards per reception (not counting WR Sam Aiken’s lone 26 yard reception), but has proven to be inconsistent.  Against the Bills, Watson had 6 receptions for 77 yards and 2 game-winning touchdowns.  In the other three games, he had 6 receptions for 97 yards and no touchdowns.  New #2 TE Chris Baker has Brady’s longest completion of the season, a 36 yard touchdown against the Falcons.  Besides that catch, Baker has 14 total receiving yards.  WR Joey Galloway has been a complete bust as a replacement for Jabar Gaffney, now with the Denver Broncos.  Rookie Julian Edelman has assumed the #3 WR role, and Aiken is the #4.  The Patriots missing on Galloway hurts the offense, and it remains to be seen whether Edelman can be consistent enough to completely make up for it.  Edelman had 8 receptions for 98 yards against the Jets (his first NFL game); in the other 2 games he’s played, he only has 4 receptions for 32 yards.  RB Kevin Faulk is on pace for 44 catches but is averaging only 6.5 yards per reception; RB Sammy Morris has averaged 10.6 yards per reception off of 9 receptions.  The Patriots will rely on Brady’s arm, and he has shown the ability to move the offense.  But given the lack of a deep threat opposite Moss, will the big play return to the Patriots offense?  Until it does, this passing offense is effective, but fairly pedestrian.

RUN OFFENSE: C.  This grade does NOT reflect the fact that RB Fred Taylor just had ankle surgery and could possibly miss the rest of the season.  It DOES reflect the work in part the work Taylor did the first quarter of the season.  Taylor only really got one chance, against the Atlanta Falcons, to consistently lead the rushing attack.  In 21 attempts, he produced 105 yards and a touchdown.  In the other three games, he only got 24 carries, producing 96 yards and a touchdown.  Even discounting his performance against the Falcons, Taylor would still lead the Patriots in yards and have just as many touchdowns.  Simply put, Faulk, Morris, and Laurence Maroney haven’t done much on the ground with their opportunities.  They have combined for 181 yards and 1 touchdown on 56 attempts, an average of only 3.2 yards per rush.  Maroney has been the most disappointing, averaging only 2.9 yards a carry.  Even though Taylor performed well, he is now like Galloway, another 30-something free agent bust for the Patriots.  The Patriots signed him to do what he did in these first four games for the whole season.  RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis will play more with Taylor out and can’t be much less productive than the other backs.  It will be most interesting to see if the Patriots continue to try and balance the offense with Taylor out.  In the first two games, the Patriots passed 100 times and rushed 43 times.  In the last two games, the Patriots passed 74 times and rushed 69 times.

OFFENSIVE LINE: B-.  There is good and bad about the offensive line of Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, and Nick Kaczur so far this season.  The good news is that Taylor seemed to run behind this offensive line just fine, and Brady has only been sacked 4 times in 4 games.  The offensive line looks a lot better when the offense is balanced.  The fact that Brady is back at QB instead of last year’s starter and current Kansas City Chiefs QB Matt Cassel means a lot more pocket awareness.  That being said, the Jets embarrassed the Patriots pass protection without even sacking Brady, making it necessary that the line is protected against such onslaughts.  The Ravens got to Brady three times, most notably when Ravens OLB Terrell Suggs blew by Light on a play-action play, forcing a fumble that was recovered by Ravens DE Dwan Edwards for a touchdown.

PASS RUSH: C.  It is hard to get a handle on the Patriots pass rush so far this season.  On the surface, it has been unspectacular.  Only DT Mike Wright (3 sacks) and DE Tully Banta-Cain (2 sacks) have more than a sack at this point, and it seems improbable that those two players will (respectively) maintain a projected 12 and 8 sack season.  The Patriots traded DE Richard Seymour after acquiring DE Derrick Burgess, and he only has one sack.  DE Ty Warren and OLB Adalius Thomas also have one sack.  To be a little fair, the matchups haven’t exactly opened up much opportunity for sacks:  The Bills no-huddle offense limited the Patriots pass rush for most of the game, the Jets only attempted 22 passes, the Falcons don’t allow many sacks at all, and the Ravens also don’t allow many sacks.  Will a consistent pass rusher emerge this season?  So far, it doesn’t look like it.

RUN DEFENSE: B-.  This grade would probably be at least a half grade higher, but Ravens RB Ray Rice torched the Patriots for 103 yards on 11 carries, including a 50 yard rush.  Besides Rice, the Patriots are allowing less than 4 yards a rush and have allowed only one rushing touchdown.  They haven’t completely shut down the likes of Bills RB Fred Jackson, Jets RBs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, and Falcons RB Michael Turner, but none of those players have run wild either.  And this is without ILB Jerod Mayo for 3.5 games and adjusting to a defensive line without Seymour.  A running back has yet to carry the ball more than 15 times against the Patriots this season, although Jets RBs Jones and Washington each had 14 carries versus the Patriots.  The Jets had 31 rush attempts in that game; no other team had at least 20 or ran more than they passed like the Jets did.  It remains to be seen whether or not ILB Junior Seau, if signed, will have any impact on the run defense.

PASS DEFENSE: B-.  Again, this grade would be a half grade higher if the Patriots forced more turnovers.  Through four games, CB Leigh Bodden has the team’s lone interception.  After the ineffectiveness of Galloway and the injury to Taylor, the Patriots are probably holding their breath with new 34-year-old CB Shawn Springs at the moment. He’s held up well so far, as have fellow newcomers CB Darius Butler and FS Brandon McGowan and Pats veterans CB Jonathan Wilhite, FS James Sanders, and SS Brandon Meriweather.  The Patriots have only allowed one touchdown to a WR, two touchdowns to a TE, and two touchdowns to RBs.  While quarterbacks are not turning the ball over, they are not moving the ball too well against the Patriots.  The Patriots held Bills WRs Terrell Owens and Lee Evans to a combined 5 receptions and 71 yards while holding the Falcons’ TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Roddy White to a combined 5 receptions for 40 yards.

SPECIAL TEAMS: B+.  If you are a Patriots fan, you are most likely very happy about your team’s special teams play.  In addition to the two fumbles recovered by opposing RBs, the Patriots have recovered critical fumbles by Bills KR Leodis McKelvin and Ravens KR Chris Carr.  Whoever is teaching the Patriots special teamers how to strip the football is doing a great job.  Those fumble recoveries changed the games: Without McKelvin’s fumbles for example, the Bills most likely win that game.  K Stephen Gostkowski is on pace to make 44-48 field goals.  P Chris Hanson is only averaging 38.2 yards per punt.  Luckily, his punting is rarely needed these days with an offense that moves, a head coach who likes to go for it on 4th down, and the fact that many of Hanson’s punts do not get returned.  Faulk and Maroney have handled the KR role, but other than a 52-yard return by Maroney, they haven’t been spectacular.  Faulk has also returned punts in Welker’s absence, but has only a 6.2 yard average.  The grade is kept down by the fact that the Patriots don’t threaten to break long returns.

One player I would keep an eye on is 3rd round rookie WR Brandon Tate.  He may be ready to come back later this season from his college knee injury from his senior year.  If he can be a deep threat on offense and a return specialist on special teams, the Patriots would benefit significantly.  The real chances of him being ready to contribute to this year’s team are slim.  Head coach Bill Belichick has done a good job, especially the last two games, of keeping the offense balanced and keying the defense to take away an opposing offense’s strengths.  Overall, if Brady can get the dangerous element of the passing attack together, than the offense will be much better.  And if Belichick can find a way to manufacture some big plays from his defense, than the entire team might still be elite.  But the season is only 25% over.  5 more home games, 7 more road games.  4 more AFC East matchups.  The Patriots are off to a good start, but nothing has been decided now.

-1SKILLZ