2009 New England Patriots: The Midseason Report

The 2009 NFL season is half over, and the New England Patriots have a 6-2 record after eight games played.  After starting the season 3-1,  the Patriots lost on the road to the Denver Broncos 20-17 in overtime.  They proceeded to go  on a three game winning streak since: obliterating the Tennessee Titans 59-0 at home, going to London to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35-7, and defeating the Miami Dolphins 27-17 at home, one week after the bye week.  The New York Jets lost the AFC East division lead to the Patriots after losing four of their last five games.

While it seemed like the Patriots had an uncomfortable and challenging first month of the season, they appeared to get better in the last month or so playing weaker competition.  Here are the midterm grades:

PASS OFFENSE: B+.  When the Patriots lost to the Jets in Week 2, it prompted the team to attempt to balance the passing offense in an effort to protect QB Tom Brady and the offensive line.  When the Patriots lost to the Broncos in Week 5, it prompted the team to emphasize the big play element that had been severely lacking from the Patriots pass offense.  The result?  Multiple big plays in the passing attack, with the Titans, Buccaneers, and Dolphins’ young/injury-riddled secondaries the victims.  Brady had seven passing TDs of at least 25 yards against those teams, the longest being WR Randy Moss’ 71 yard catch, stiff arm, and run for a TD against the Dolphins.  12 of Brady’s 16 TD passes this season have come in the last four games of the season.  And no one should scoff at the 6 TDs he threw against the Titans: considering when he left that game, he could have done even more damage.  This is the Tom Brady everyone is used to seeing, and as a result, the Randy Moss that everyone is used to seeing has re-emerged.  In 2007, Moss caught 98 passes for 1,493 yards.  This season, he is almost exactly on pace to those same numbers, having caught 49 passes for 712 yards.  He can still get deep, make the spectacular catch, and dominate a football game.  WR Wes Welker is also healthy and remarkably on pace with his 2007 (112 catches, 1,175 yards, 8 TDs) AND 2008 numbers (111 catches, 1,165 yards, 3 TDs) with 55 catches, 568 yards, and 4 TDs despite missing two games with a knee injury.  RB Kevin Faulk has almost as many receptions (23) as he has rushing attempts (25).  TE Ben Watson had 6 receptions for 77 yards and 2 TDs in the season opener vs. the Buffalo Bills; he has only 13 receptions for 194 yards and 2 TDs since.  TE Chris Baker had a 36 yard TD reception against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3 vs. the Atlanta Falcons, which was Brady’s only TD pass over 20 yards until the Titans came to New England; besides that reception, Baker has only 42 yards on 7 receptions this season.  The biggest concern with the Patriots has been their revolving door at WR besides Moss and Welker.  They have struggled to replace WRs Jabar Gaffney (291 receiving yards in Denver) and Kelley Washington (335 receiving yards in Baltimore) this season.  WR Joey Galloway (67 receiving yards) was mercifully released after three terrible games, and rookie WRs Julian Edelman (188 yards before breaking his arm) and Brandon Tate (still no receptions after recovering from torn ACL) have struggled with injuries.  WR Sam Aiken has taken the opportunity to catch 8 passes for 113 yards in the last three games, including a 54 yard catch and run TD reception against the Buccaneers.  The big play pass appears to be back in New England, but is it solely dependent on the opposition?  The Titans, Buccaneers, and Dolphins are all in the bottom quarter of the NFL in passing yards per attempt.

RUN OFFENSE: C+.  You can argue at least two different points as to why the New England Patriots started the season with five RBs on the roster (Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor).  You could argue for the versatility of the group, with Morris being able to play fullback, Faulk being the receiving back, Maroney returning kickoffs, etc.  I will argue the point that the Patriots knew they needed extra bodies for when one or more of those RBs got hurt.  Sure enough, Taylor was injured in Week 4, and Morris was injured in Week 6.  Instead of getting injured, Maroney has taken the opportunity the last three games to rush 49 times for 248 yards (5.1 yards per carry) and 3 TDs, the most productive three game stretch for Maroney since the 2007 postseason.  Considering Faulk’s role on the roster as a receiver, Maroney won’t be on the field as much to be considered an every down back due to his own subpar receiving ability.  However, if Maroney can be a consistent runner even when/if Taylor and Morris return from their injuries, it would make the Patriots offense much more dangerous.  Maroney is the only back on the roster with big play ability (sorry Law Firm), and he deserves a chance to show it off.  More than likely though, head coach Bill Belichick will use a rotation based on matchups once everyone is healthy again.

OFFENSIVE LINE: B.  As I mentioned above, the offensive line was much maligned for their performance against the New York Jets, but a change in offensive philosophy (more balance) has greatly helped the offensive line.  Also helping the offensive line?  Perhaps the performance of rookie LT Sebastian Vollmer, a second-round draft choice.  Vollmer (6-8, 315) was forced into the line after LT Matt Light injured his knee at Denver.  He has played so well that Light, a nine-year starter and also a former second round pick of the Patriots, will not be handed his starting job back.  Brady has been sacked only ten times this season.  Last season, the same starters (Light, LG Logan Mankins, C Dan Koppen, RG Stephen Neal, RT Nick Kaczur) allowed 2008 starting QB Matt Cassel to get sacked 47 times.  Cassel, now in Kansas City, has taken 27 sacks in his 7 starts this season.  Perhaps the Patriots offensive line’s most impressive performance was against the Tennessee Titans.  In a game played in the snow, QBs Tom Brady and Brian Hoyer dropped back to pass 45 times and the line only allowed two sacks to DT Jason Jones.  In addition to that, the Patriots rushed for 193 yards on 30 rushing attempts, which had been the most rushing yards Tennessee allowed since December 2006 (they would proceed to give up over 200 rushing yards the very next week to the Jacksonville Jaguars).

PASS RUSH: C.  The Patriots are on pace for 30 sacks this season, after getting 31 sacks in 2008.  The leaders of the pass rush have been DE Mike Wright (4 sacks) and OLB Tully Banta-Cain (3 sacks), and they get to the quarterback with pure effort.  Banta-Cain, in particular, has exceeded expectations from when the team re-signed him for this season.  He now has a three-year contract and a full-time role on defense.  The biggest disappointment with the pass rush is the fact that OLBs Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess have only two sacks each.  Thomas’ lack of production earned him a spot on the inactive list for the Titans game.  Something to look out for is whether the Patriots appear to have found a role for rookie SS Patrick Chung, as he has had a sack in each of the last two games.

RUN DEFENSE: C-.  The good thing about the Patriots’ run defense has been the fact that they have allowed only two rushing touchdowns.  Also, teams cannot run the ball as much as they want against the Patriots because of the fact that the Patriots are rarely playing from behind.  This grade is as low as it is because the Patriots seem to be vulnerable to allowing big plays in the running game.  It has yet to cost them a game yet, but it is something that needs to be shored up.  After allowing 103 yards to Ravens RB Ray Rice, teams have been trying to run the football against the Patriots with mixed results.  Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno is the only RB to have at least 20 carries against the Patriots, gaining 88 yards on 21 carries.  Moreno didn’t break out many long runs, but he was effective in the Broncos’ overtime victory over the Patriots.  Even though the Titans were getting blasted, they kept running the football: partly because QBs Kerry Collins and Vince Young were hopeless throwing the football in the snow, and partly because the Patriots could not stop RB Chris Johnson.  Johnson rushed for 128 yards on 17 carries, including a 48 yard run.  The Patriots also allowed the Titans’ third RB, Javon Ringer, to bust a 32 yard run in that game.  The next week, Buccaneers RBs Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward had 12 carries each, but only gained 77 yards.  The Patriots also played well against the run vs. Miami, except for the Dolphins’ first touchdown drive highlighted by Dolphins QB Pat White’s 33 yard run and capped by White’s option pitch to RB Ricky Williams for a 15 yard touchdown.  On that drive, the Dolphins ran 5 times for 66 yards and the TD.  Excluding that drive though, the Dolphins only gained 67 yards rushing on 26 attempts.  NT Vince Wilfork showed impressive versatility in that game, playing DE to challenge Dolphins LT Jake Long.  Currently, ILB Gary Guyton and FS Brandon McGowan are leading the team in tackles, and ILB Jerod Mayo is healthy.  It is difficult to run the ball straight at the Patriots, but they appear to be vulnerable to speed and “Wild” formations (Cat/Pat/Horses).

PASS DEFENSE: B+.  After Broncos QB Kyle Orton completed 35 of 48 passes for 330 yards and two TDs to WR Brandon Marshall, it appeared that the Patriots’ pass defense might be a team weakness.  None of the Broncos WRs broke loose, but the underneath routes the Patriots were giving up appeared to be an issue, as well as the fact that they were not forcing turnovers.  Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Jabar Gaffney combined for 24 receptions for 215 yards.  While that is a lot of production, none of the receptions were more than 18 yards, and Royal’s 90 yards on 10 catches is the most yards and receptions the Patriots have allowed to one player so far this season.  The very next week, rookie CB Darius Butler was inserted into the starting lineup and the Patriots held the Titans to NEGATIVE seven passing yards.  They completely shut out the Titans’ tight ends, allowed a 15 yard completion to FB Ahmard Hall, and other than a 4th down pass to WR Nate Washington that resulted in a 22 yard loss, shut out the wide receivers as well.  Butler and Chung got their first career interceptions in that game, and after getting torched on one drive by Buccaneers WR Antonio Bryant (an 18 yard reception on 3rd down followed by a 33 yard touchdown deep along the right sideline), Butler intercepted Buccaneers QB Josh Johnson in that game as well.  While FS Brandon McGowan has been credited with helping keep tight ends in check, SS Brandon Meriwether has emerged as the biggest playmaker on defense, highlighted by his two interceptions of Josh Johnson (the first of which was returned for the Patriots’ only defensive/special teams TD of the season).  CBs Shawn Springs, Leigh Bodden, and Jonathan Wilhite have all been solid, and Antonio Bryant’s TD reception is the only TD the Patriots defense has allowed outside the red zone.  Overall, the Patriots have shown sound fundamentals all season defending the pass.  And to continue the pattern of how this year’s defense mirrors last season’s: the 2008 Patriots recorded 14 interceptions, lead by Meriwether with four.  After eight games, the Patriots have seven interceptions, lead by Butler and Meriwether with two each.

SPECIAL TEAMS: B.  The Patriots have been steady on special teams this season in every aspect except punting.  P Chris Hanson is averaging a career-low 38.9 yards a punt, almost five yards less than what he averaged last season.  The poor punting hasn’t cost the Patriots yet, and coverage has been excellent, but it is definitely a cause for concern - especially as the weather gets worse.  In an effort to continue the mirror trend, here are K Stephen Gostkowski’s numbers from 2008: 40/40 PAT, 36/40 FG, 148 points.  So far, Gostkowski is 22/22 on PATs and 17/20 on FGs for 73 points.  While the Patriots aren’t necessarily forcing fumbles on kickoff returners every week, they have yet to allow a significant return on either a punt or a kickoff.  In a perfect world, Edelman is the punt returner and Tate is the kickoff returner for the Patriots, allowing players such as Welker, Maroney, and Faulk to concentrate on just offense.  Injuries have made that plan difficult to carry out.  Tate has returned 4 kickoffs an average of 26.5 yards, but is injured again.  Edelman has returned 6 punts an average of 10.5 yards, but has yet to return from injury.  All of the injuries may allow second year WR/S Matt Slater another opportunity to return kickoffs.

The Patriots are now in the midst of what will prove to be the toughest part of the season.  They face the undefeated Indianapolis Colts on the road, then face the New York Jets at home, then go to New Orleans to play the Saints on Monday Night Football, then travel to Miami for a rematch against the Dolphins.  The Patriots have shown what they are capable of in playing a challenging early schedule, then smashing some cupcakes.  The passing attack has righted itself despite lacking a consistent third wide receiver, the rushing attack has been adequate despite injuries, and the offensive line has remained solid despite a rookie filling in at left tackle.  The defense and special teams continues to make strides and give the team a chance to win every game.  All of this will be tested playing against two heated, sure to be desperate division rivals (Jets, Dolphins) and two teams led by MVP candidates at QB that started the first half of the season undefeated (Colts, Saints).  Win the next four, and the Patriots have a playoff spot locked up and they will be undisputed Super Bowl contenders.  Lose the next four, and the Patriots will be back to the drawing board trying to save their season.

-1SKILLZ


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